Can lithium batteries power all cars in America? 23

[Space car]

Can lithium batteries power all cars in America? The answer may be “Yes,” but we must change direction if we are to have any chance. Based on recent history, after the coronavirus pandemic is over, US new car sales will return to about 17.5 million units per year. When we get to a first year for all-electric car production, how much lithium will be needed? A lithium ion battery contains 0.3 grams of lithium per amp-hour of battery capacity, or about 0.09 kg of lithium per kilowatt-hour (kWh)

https://batteryguy.com/kb/knowledge-base/how-to-calculate-the-lithium-content-in-a-battery/

Lithium mines measure their output in kilograms of lithium carbonate. In terms of mine output, it takes 0.96 kg of lithium carbonate per kWh of battery capacity. Assume each car has an average battery capacity of 60 kWh. Multiplying by 17.5 million cars, the amount of lithium mine output needed will be 1.0 million metric tonnes of lithium carbonate for each year of new EVs
In 2020, total world mine output of lithium carbonate is projected to be about 0.7 million metric tonnes. The world is now scrambling to find more lithium. There are more problems:
• US auto sales are only about 22% of vehicle sales worldwide.
• Power companies are aggressively purchasing Lithium batteries for the grid.
Some say that science can solve the problem—"another, even better battery will be found that may not even need lithium.” Well, no, that isn’t the situation. No other element carries as much charge for its weight as does ionized lithium and the lithium ion cell produces a prodigious 3.7 volts. Current batteries obtain about 85% of the theoretical limit of energy storage for their lithium content. Future improvements will only be in battery structure, weight, and charging speed.

CONCLUSION: Power companies don’t need light-weight batteries—they MUST use something else! America must vastly increase domestic mining and processing of lithium and other strategic materials such as cobalt, nickel, aluminum, and rare earth metals needed for an electrified economy. Plus we can learn to be more thrifty. The auto industry can make more efficient electric vehicles that need only half as much battery capacity.

 

[SnTMan]

John, surely you know sarcasm when you encounter it?

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[CWB1]

Are Tides And Waves The Missing Piece Of The Green Energy Puzzle?

Given the decades of greenies' protesting traditional hydro generation NOT in their backyard, I dont see them smiling upon another form of hydro generation at their beloved local shores.

That all being said, the compounding energy losses while converting from chemical, to electric, to motive make me wonder how efficient it really is compared to directly from chemical to motive.

The parameter you're looking for is brake-specific emissions. g/kw*hr. Obviously there are a plethora of power sources for the EV but the bottom line is that EVs powered by fossil fuels are major polluters vs an ICE vehicle due to the compounding inefficiencies of generation, transmission, and charging.

 

[LionelHutz]

Obviously there are a plethora of power sources for the EV but the bottom line is that EVs powered by fossil fuels are major polluters vs an ICE vehicle due to the compounding inefficiencies of generation, transmission, and charging.

Got any data to back this claim. Generally speaking, EVs powered by fossil fuse should still be considered polluters, but will be better than an ICE vehicle in most cases. In my example, the generation right beside the charging stations eliminates most of the transmission losses.

 

[davefitz]

circa 2001 , Frank Kreith ( author of heat transfer books) published a 10 page "proof" that if we replaced IC cars with EV cars, pollution would increase significantly, as well as costs. At that time, California was considering such a mandate, and most electric power to California was imported fossil fuel power , but also they claimed priority use of the northwest hydro power from other states. I think his conclusions would be altered if the modern increase in wind and PV renewable power was factored in.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[BrianPetersen]

That brings up another point. A combustion-engine vehicle is stuck with running on gasoline or diesel fuel. An EV in effect runs on whatever mixture of electricity sources that your local grid uses. In my case, it's about half nuclear, a quarter hydroelectric, the rest a mixture of natural gas and wind/solar. Clean up the grid and you in effect clean up the vehicles powered by it.

 

[GregLocock]

There are many studies, the results of which may reflect the prejudices of the scientists involved, and of course, they are affected by changes in generation methods. For instance EVs never made much sense from a CO2 perspective in Germany, and as they are getting rid of nukes, and have built a new coal powered power station, they make even less now.

UCS, scarcely a neutral source, says EVs have more emissions than sensible ICEs for 25% of the USA population.

https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-data-show-electric-vehicles-continue-to-get-cleaner

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[davefitz]

I tried to find the Kreith article ( published as an addendum to the monthly ASME magazine" Mechanical Engineering"circa 2001), and instead found a large number of other articles by that prolific author . Espescially relevant to the discussion of energy alernatives is that article titled "Bang for the Buck", published May 2012 in Mechanical Engineering magazine, by Kreith. Irrespective of the inaccuracies of the "climate change" modeling results promoted by the IPCC , it should be obvious that society will need to develop alternatives to fossil fuels as they inevitably become uneconomical due to depletion. His articles comparing energy alternatives based on EROI energy return on investment is very telling.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[moltenmetal]

GregLocock: The Union of Concerned Scientists wrote a report whose title says it all:

"Cleaner Cars- From Cradle to Grave"

EVs are cleaner on a lifecycle basis than the fleet average car that they replace, basically everywhere in the USA already right now, much less going into the future.

EVs are cleaner than a PRIUS, which is the cleanest car without a plug you can buy in the USA, still, in all but a handful of states.

And in Canada, where I live, 80% of us have access to a grid which is 40 g CO2/kWh or less. Here, EVs are a total environmental no brainer. The extra embodied emissions from making the battery are paid off in a year here, for a battery with a reasonable capacity- a couple years for the giant pack in a Tesla Model 3 LR version.

If GHG and toxic emission reductions actually matter, EVs are the solution, assuming that walking, biking, e-bikes, scooters or public transit aren't an option. Those are of course all better- except for diesel buses of course. My home-made EV did better in GHG emissions from source per person-mile than a diesel transit bus with 60 passengers.

 

[GregLocock]

The UCS says 25% of the USA population lives in areas where EVs are 'worse' than a Prius for CO2 emissions. It's in the report I linked.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[BrianPetersen]

Which EV, though?

The Prius isn't representative of the average vehicle bought by a US consumer. The most popular EV in the US market (Tesla) also isn't representative of the average vehicle bought by a US consumer while simultaneously not being comparable to a Prius, either.

It shouldn't be surprising that a hypothetical F150/Hummer/Cybertruck EV (an EV, but still a heavy and inefficient one) is going to be worse overall than a hypothetical Prius (close to, if not the, most efficient petrol-engine vehicle you can get).

 

[LionelHutz]

The Prius argument doesn't count for much either way. Sure, there are a handful of gasoline hybrids that get over 45mph (probably about 15-20 models maybe). 25% of the USA might live in an area where one of these vehicle models could do better than a pure EV. But, all of that population in those areas certainly doesn't own one of these vehicles, and you'd have a hard time convincing many in those populations that they should own a vehicle in that class. The "better" isn't much either, for a lot of that area it's within a couple of mpg.

 

[Comcokid]

Too many of the studies are based on a EV don't consider an air conditioner or heater. An EVs is fine if you live in San Jose CA. EVs have A/C and heaters that are marginal at best and also significantly impact the efficiency.

In a Florida summer a vehicle is an environmental lifeboat that moves you from one airlock to another airlock. A high-performance vehicle is one that will run the A/C at full blast while stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic. I lived there and had to equip my 4-cyl car with a welded-aluminum racing radiator to ensure I would survive. In the northern great planes states in a winter blizzard you can die in a vehicle in a few hours without a heater, and an EV has to heat the battery first so it will even function.

You can check the Tesla forums. Many find running the A/C at any level cuts range by 20% or more. You find people on the Tesla forums talking about running diesel/kerosene fueled heaters in cold winters because of how much otherwise heating impacts the range. So much for the low carbon footprint!

 

[miningman]

Accepting the fact that nearly all the published papers on EVs and hybrids are a bit biased ( generally written or financed by manufacturers or suppliers) and accepting that Toyota has a well earned reputation for reliabilty etc etc, How come theres so little written extolling the virtues of the Hyundai product line???

 

[LionelHutz]

There is some truth to it. The EV buses Toronto is buying use fuel oil or diesel fuel fired heaters below 5*C.

 

[SnTMan]

Comcokid, how are they heating their cars with the fired heaters? Heating their garages while parked? Surely not fired heaters in the car...

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[BrianPetersen]

"Talking about" doesn't imply "doing" ...

Teslas up to the Model Y have used an electric resistance heater, which is of course an energy hog in cold weather. The Y uses a heat pump with the interestingly-named "octovalve" that allows it to send heat and cooling in various directions to extract the most possible use out of what heat is available in the vehicle (e.g. powertrain). The latest revision to the 3 includes that system as well. Independent testing has been finding that this system uses about a third as much power to keep the interior at 21 C when the outside temperature is near freezing. A coefficient-of-performance of 3 for a heat pump would not be surprising, so this makes sense.

They're not the only ones to be using a heat pump.

Certainly cold weather will still be a hit to the range, but not so badly as before.

I routinely see Teslas out on the road in winter. It doesn't render them useless, as what some people write would imply.

 

[moltenmetal]

All cars drop in range (energy economy) in winter weather. That drop common to all cars is at least 10%- more for fossil fuelled hybrids which over-cool when the engine is stopped when it's not required (to avoid idling).

On top of it, an EV uses energy in the battery to either make heat (through a resistance heater) or to pump heat (using a heat pump). That will drop range a lot if you're driving very slowly in very cold weather, and barely at all if you're driving FAST in cold weather- because it's energy use in proportion to how much the drivetrain is using. 3 kW for heat when you're using 1 kW average crawling along in stop and go traffic is a big range drop- 3 kW out of 20 kW blasting along full speed on the highway isn't a big range drop at all.

None of that of course is any justification to waste 2/3 or more of the energy in your "tank" as heat, just to have some waste heat to warm your cabin!

Dress warmly, prewarm the cabin using grid power before you leave, take advantage of the heated seats and steering wheel, and keep the focus on keeping the windscreen clear. That'll drop your range loss quite a lot.

 

[Sparweb]

Just to underline the point made, here is a meticulous account of the measured fuel consumption of a 4-cylinder sedan (mine) driven for 6 years.

The fuel consumption in the summer is in the mid-8 L/100km. In the winter it's in the mid-9 L/100km. Seasonal variation therefore about +/-5%.
So in context, some range and efficiency loss to an EV is nothing new or special compared to a gasoline car.
The real change is just that nobody has been paying attention all this time.

Note: These values are not the imaginary numbers on the digital screen that all cars with fuel computers including mine display to their drivers. These values are measured at the pump using calibrated and temperature corrected volumes, and on the odometer that is also calibrated frequently using highway test signs.

Note: I have checked several models of cars and the fuel consumption displays all underestimate by 10%, including mine.

Note: There is a substantial gap in my driving through most of 2020.

Note: There is a trend in the yearly average from about 9.0 in 2012 to 9.4 in 2019 that represents the aging of the car.

http://www.sparweb.ca

 

[GregLocock]

Is that driven from new? I typically see a 10% fall in the first 1000-3000 km which I attribute to the diff (in particular) running in. However cynics may suggest that in the first few weeks I mess about a lot more than I do later.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[Sparweb]

It's a 2008 car. I bought in 2012 when it had 140,000 km (87k miles) and I've got it up to 380,000km (237k miles).

I "mess about" lots in the summer because of the better traction. I also "mess about" lots in the winter... because of low traction... :\ it's a fun car with a 6-speed manual gearbox. Lotsa choices.

http://www.sparweb.ca