Educated" opinions on climate change - Part 4 27

[PBroad]

Regarding climate change, perhaps we should go back a year or two: W.E. Deming the Engineer who revitalised Japan said "It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory",

 

[ewh]

The world is screwed. I give it 10 to 20 years max until it's Thunder Dome time!

I wish I could get to Burning Man for a head start...

"Good to know you got shoes to wear when you find the floor." - [small]Robert Hunter[/small]

 

[cranky108]

If recent headlines are any indication, Thunder Dome isen't likely. More likely, Terminator, and rise of the machines, and who knows maybe the Matrix.

With the increasing number of jobs replaced by machines, and the increasing population, many people will be displaced, or put into more primitive situations, while others educated to serve the machines will become much better off.

 

[rb1957]

since we can't prove anything about AGW/CC (significantly is it human caused ? and how exactly ? or what action will create the results we want ?) we're left with belief.

and for those who believe, or don't, no argument will convince them otherwise.

 

[FeX32]

Yes, just like religion.


Fe

 

[cranky108]

Don't most religions follow a book, or some high preast? If so, what do the global warming religon people follow?

 

[cranky108]

Oops, I forgot about Al Gore.

Actually I was trying to forget about him.

 

[jmw]

Interesting read and by the same author as Longitude, is "Galileo's Daughter" which uses his daughter's letters to him his to her were allegedly destroyed by the convent when he died so as not to get involved in heresy) about his problems vis a vis the orthodox Earth centred religious doctrines and his observation based development of the support for Copernicus' heliocentric view.

So, yes we have lots of bad models to look at from Galileo to Lysenkoism.

It ain't encouraging and sadly, about the only thing that will save us will probably kill us - a new mini (hope its not more) ice age because logic and reason and science aren't cutting it so far (except Australia has thrown out carbon trading which might or might not signal something hopeful).

JMW

http://www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

[ewh]

Common sense down under? It's TEOTWAWKI!!! ;-)

"Good to know you got shoes to wear when you find the floor." - [small]Robert Hunter[/small]

 

[rb1957]

oy, ewh ... them there's fight'n' words, just 'cause we diggers know which end of a kangaroo from the other (don't Ever get them mixed up, or you're in for a world of hurt) and can, on occassion, show a small amount of commonsense (mind you the problem with the carbon trading schemes wasn't, as i understand it, that one party thought they were bad; rather they couldn't agree on how much to gouge the poor tax-paying slob) doesn't invite that sort of retort

mind you, if the eagles retire and stop touring, then that would be TEOTWAWKI ... and maybe the end of these threads too ??

 

[ewh]

No offense intended... just a little Friday sarcasm.

"Good to know you got shoes to wear when you find the floor." - [small]Robert Hunter[/small]

 

[rb1957]

no sweat,
buy us a beer in the pub and all's forgiven !

 

[owg]

I read the article in Time this week about Steven Chu, the Secretary of Energy in the US. He is a brilliant person and should do great things including reforming the DOE. However when he was asked about the stalled global warming situation he responded by saying that "the 10 hottest years on record have all been in the last 12 years, and that 1998 was the hottest." Please correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that what we would expect if we were coming down from a peak in a sine curve?

HAZOP at

http://www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

 

[josephv]

Here is the article on Steven Chu:

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1916078-4,00.html

Note, the article also says, "He mocked the skeptics who focus on that post-1998 blip while ignoring a century-long trend of rising temperatures."

 

[jmw]

So should we mock him for ignoring the preceding ups and downs?
Apparently a downturn isn't a down turn.


JMW

http://www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

[josephv]

Except that what you are saying is not true. If you look at the article Steven Chu showed a "chart showing that the 10 hottest years on record have all been in the past 12 years — and that 1998 was the hottest...".

So he is not as you said ignoring the preceding ups and downs; however, he points out that it is irresponsible to ignore a century-long trend of rising temperatures. That is actually a very good point.

 

[rapt]

josephv,

But he does not relate that centuries up trend with those over the previous centuries.

Over the last 2000 years there have been other temperature uptrends of similar scope and also downtrends of similar scope.

Why is the 19th century uptrend man made and all of the others are not?

And if 1998 is the current peak, why are we necessarily still in an uptrend, albiet with a kink in it? Why was there a downtrend from 1900 to 1910 and from 1940 to 1950 and 1960 to 1980? In fact, during the depression when manufacturing was weak, there is a definite up trend of similar magnitude to the current one, but between 1940 to 1950, where there were enoumous amounts of manufacturing for the war years and then reconstruction, there is a down trend?

Why does he not look at the millenia long trend, or longer, and see that current decade and century long trends are not abnormal and current temperatures are not abnormally high. And man cannot be blamed for most of those.

 

[owg]

Thanks for the discussion on Mr. Chu's remarks. rapt - Can you provide a couple of links to illustrate your points about long term ups and downs.

HAZOP at

http://www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

 

[cranky108]

Isen't the long term trend, since the last ice age, to grow hotter? Or isen't that an important general trend in all this?

I really don't think humans had the effect to bring us out of the ice age.

So what CO2 has increased. It increases every time there is an active volcano.

Studies and calculations are great, and they show 2+2=5. Now isen't that helpful?

 

[rapt]

owg,

My comments were based on the short temperature records and long term temperature estimates that have been presented on this site and in other documents in the past.

cranky108, Yes, we have been on a long term rise which was preceeded by a long term fall etc with intermediate rises and falls of varying magnitudes and rates, some worse than the current rise. And the current temperature is not historically high, and neither are water levels.