It's a very hard problem. At the top is that it's an energy dissipation problem - how much kinetic energy was available in the mass of the tree and then where did it all go?
To move the foundation one needs a good understanding of how much energy would be required to displace the ground under/around it as well as to fracture it.
Sight unseen it's tough to decide. A google search for trees falling on houses show many with considerable above-ground structure damage, but it doesn't usually seem to distort all the way to the basement/foundation, but there is this one -
which looks to have had enough energy to essentially cut the house in two. If the slab on that home isn't fractured I'd be surprised. Another extreme case:
but it doesn't look to have damaged the underlying masonry.
The reasonable thing is a 50/50 split on the foundation work as neither side can possibly provide sufficient analysis based on gathered data from the time of the event to clearly demonstrate cause/lack of cause. It is unreasonable to expect that the home owner was counting on a tree falling to get the foundation paid for, but it's possible the tree falling exposed some otherwise concealed unexpected damage, say from settlement or washout, but that would not be considered normal maintenance.
However, reasonable is often tossed out when dealing with insurance. Example: if all your possessions are destroyed by heavy rain falling after wind blows the roof off, insurance companies have argued their liability is limited to replacing the roof and that the rest is flood damage on the grounds that water entering the house is flooding. Or, in the case put forward by Louis Rossmann, who had an amount of retail stock damaged by water filling his basement from a firefighting effort on a neighboring structure - yeah, that was classified as flood damage and not claimable.