GregLocock
Automotive
- Apr 10, 2001
- 23,756
Amazingly one government gets it. France has kicked off planning for a +4 deg C world in 2100. Reasons for this are (among others)
The alarmist ABC article claims the barrier reef will die, seems unlikely since it is on the cold temperature limit for coral. There are many beautiful reefs nearer the equator, just around bali for a start and right up to Hawaii.
Link to not very scary article
That article mentions that COP is a waste of time. Here's global annual fossil fuel consumption in energy units plotted against Cop , where 1 is COP1, and 29 is COP29
Machine translation of the French press release
**Press Dossier: PNACC**
### PRESENTATION OF THE NATIONAL PLAN FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
**Preparing France for +4°C**
**March 10, 2025**
---
### Foreword by Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister of Ecological Transition, Biodiversity, Forestry, Marine, and Fisheries
Heat records, torrential rains, devastating droughts: these phenomena are no longer exceptions. They are our new norm.
The year 2024 clearly illustrates this climate disruption. It ranks among the five hottest years since measurements began in 1900, one of the ten wettest years nationwide, and among the least sunny years in the past 30 years.
In this context, two observations are essential:
- **A scientific observation**: Climate change is already affecting the entire French territory and population. Since 1900, the average temperature in mainland France has increased by +1.7°C. Between late 2023 and early 2024, 313 municipalities in Hauts-de-France were declared in a state of natural disaster. 5,000 kilometers of French coastline (20% of our coasts) are affected by coastal erosion. 1.5 million people are exposed to marine submersion risks, and 11 million houses are in zones at risk from soil shrinkage and swelling due to clay movements.
- **An economic observation**: If France does not adapt to climate change, the consequences will be severe. The cost of climate-related disasters could double over the next 30 years, reaching a cumulative 143 billion euros between 2020 and 2050. France could lose up to 10% of its GDP over the next 50 years if global temperatures increase by +2°C. The extra cost of insurance linked to climate change could rise by 35% by 2050.
Faced with these observations, our approach is clear: prepare, anticipate, act.
### THE NATIONAL PLAN FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (PNACC)
The PNACC includes **52 measures** and more than **200 concrete actions**, structured around several crucial pillars:
- Protecting the population
- Ensuring the resilience of territories, infrastructures, and essential services
- Adapting human activities to ensure economic resilience and food, economic, and energy sovereignty at +4°C
- Protecting our natural and cultural heritage
- Mobilizing all sectors of society to achieve adaptation
This plan was developed through a collaborative approach involving the State, local governments, economic players, and citizens. The final version published today is the result of several months of consultation, including two months of public consultation. Nearly **6,000 contributions** were received, including **176 position papers** from stakeholders. These contributions have been invaluable in refining the PNACC. The plan has also been enriched by recommendations from the **National Council for Ecological Transition**, which represents trade unions, environmental organizations, local elected officials, and youth representatives. The Council approved the plan almost unanimously, demonstrating broad support from various sectors.
The PNACC must serve as our guide in addressing the challenges ahead. To be effective, it will be implemented at the local level, working closely with elected officials, businesses, workers, farmers, associations, and citizens, as well as all ministries involved in resilience efforts.
Adapting does not mean giving up. It means adding another tool to our ecological action, doing everything possible to limit the effects of climate disruption while preparing our country for its economic, social, and environmental impacts. That is our mission.
---
### FRANCE ADOPTS A NEW ADAPTATION PLAN
#### **A Pioneer in Adaptation**
France has been proactive in adaptation policies since 2006, establishing a national strategy seven years before the European Union's first adaptation strategy. In 2011, it published a methodological plan, the first of its kind in Europe. Since 2018, adaptation policy has been guided by the second National Adaptation Plan.
This third National Adaptation Plan marks a shift in scale.
#### **A First-Time Reference Trajectory**
The new plan is based on a **Reference Warming Trajectory for Adaptation to Climate Change (TRACC)**, preparing France for increasing temperature levels:
- **2024**: +1.7°C
- **2030**: +2°C
- **2050**: +2.7°C
- **2100**: +4°C
This trajectory follows the trend scenario from the **Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)**, factoring in current global mitigation policies and additional commitments made by nations under the Paris Agreement.
#### **An Integrated Strategy**
This plan aims to make climate adaptation a systematic consideration across all public policies, including health, economy, agriculture, biodiversity, education, labor, urban planning, housing, transport, and culture.
Step by step, it prepares us to **live, work, and move** in a France at **+4°C**.
#### **Key Measures**
1. **Protecting the Population:** Prevention against natural disasters, improved insurance frameworks, and adaptation of housing to extreme heat.
2. **Ensuring Resilient Infrastructure & Services:** Enhancing resilience in energy, transport, and communication systems.
3. **Adapting Human Activities:** Supporting businesses, agriculture, and tourism in adapting to climate conditions.
4. **Protecting Natural & Cultural Heritage:** Conservation of forests, coastlines, and major cultural sites from climate impacts.
5. **Mobilizing All Sectors:** Engaging the private sector, research institutions, and citizens in adaptation efforts.
---
### CLIMATE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR MAINLAND FRANCE BY 2100
#### **Already Visible Impacts**
- **Heatwaves:** 9 of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 2010.
- **Biodiversity Loss:** 2,300 species threatened.
- **Sea Level Rise:** +20 cm since 1900.
- **Marine Submersion Risks:** 1.5 million people at risk.
- **Flooding:** 313 municipalities declared in a state of natural disaster in 2023-2024.
- **Coastal Erosion:** 20% of France's 5,000 km of coastline already affected.
- **Expansion of Tiger Mosquitoes:** Present in 78 mainland departments.
- **Average Temperature Rise:** +1.7°C since 1900.
#### **Projected Impacts**
- **Forest Fires:** Season duration extended by up to 4 months.
- **Glacier Loss:** 50% volume reduction since 1850, with near-total disappearance by 2100.
- **Droughts:** Severe droughts doubling or tripling in frequency.
- **Declining Snow Cover:** Up to a 70% reduction in snowfall in mid-altitudes.
---
### FINANCING THE PNACC
- The **Barnier Fund** increased by +75 million euros to **300 million euros**.
- **Green Fund** mobilized with **260 million euros** for adaptation measures.
- Nearly **1 billion euros** allocated by **Water Agencies**, with 40% dedicated to nature-based solutions.
- **Funds dedicated to soil movement risks** (shrink-swell of clay).
- A **new measure encouraging private sector adaptation financing** to be studied in 2026.
---
### PUBLIC CONSULTATION RESULTS
A **public consultation** on the PNACC was held from **October to December 2024**, gathering nearly **6,000 responses** and **175 stakeholder position papers**, demonstrating strong public interest in climate adaptation.
The PNACC is France’s roadmap to preparing for a climate at +4°C, ensuring resilience across all sectors while continuing global efforts to reduce emissions.
For the full plan, visit **ecologie.gouv.fr**.
- China talks, and does, a big game about renewable energy, but is frantically building coal-fired power stations. Last year it added 100GW of coal capacity, five times Australia’s entire coal-fired capacity, another 94.5GW is under construction and 66.7GW more has been approved.
- To reach net zero, at least 2 billion tonnes of carbon, and possibly as much as 5 billion, will have to be sequestered in new trees because carbon emissions definitely won’t be zero in 25 years. Yet there simply won’t be enough new trees planted. Many of those supplying emitting companies with offset certificates are getting away with saying that a tree not cut down is the same as a tree planted.
- Energy scientist, Vaclav Smil puts the total cost of achieving net zero by 2050 at $US444 trillion, or $US17 trillion a year for 25 years, “requiring affluent economies to spend 20 to 25 per cent of their annual GDP on the transition”.
The alarmist ABC article claims the barrier reef will die, seems unlikely since it is on the cold temperature limit for coral. There are many beautiful reefs nearer the equator, just around bali for a start and right up to Hawaii.
Link to not very scary article
That article mentions that COP is a waste of time. Here's global annual fossil fuel consumption in energy units plotted against Cop , where 1 is COP1, and 29 is COP29
Machine translation of the French press release
**Press Dossier: PNACC**
### PRESENTATION OF THE NATIONAL PLAN FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
**Preparing France for +4°C**
**March 10, 2025**
---
### Foreword by Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister of Ecological Transition, Biodiversity, Forestry, Marine, and Fisheries
Heat records, torrential rains, devastating droughts: these phenomena are no longer exceptions. They are our new norm.
The year 2024 clearly illustrates this climate disruption. It ranks among the five hottest years since measurements began in 1900, one of the ten wettest years nationwide, and among the least sunny years in the past 30 years.
In this context, two observations are essential:
- **A scientific observation**: Climate change is already affecting the entire French territory and population. Since 1900, the average temperature in mainland France has increased by +1.7°C. Between late 2023 and early 2024, 313 municipalities in Hauts-de-France were declared in a state of natural disaster. 5,000 kilometers of French coastline (20% of our coasts) are affected by coastal erosion. 1.5 million people are exposed to marine submersion risks, and 11 million houses are in zones at risk from soil shrinkage and swelling due to clay movements.
- **An economic observation**: If France does not adapt to climate change, the consequences will be severe. The cost of climate-related disasters could double over the next 30 years, reaching a cumulative 143 billion euros between 2020 and 2050. France could lose up to 10% of its GDP over the next 50 years if global temperatures increase by +2°C. The extra cost of insurance linked to climate change could rise by 35% by 2050.
Faced with these observations, our approach is clear: prepare, anticipate, act.
### THE NATIONAL PLAN FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (PNACC)
The PNACC includes **52 measures** and more than **200 concrete actions**, structured around several crucial pillars:
- Protecting the population
- Ensuring the resilience of territories, infrastructures, and essential services
- Adapting human activities to ensure economic resilience and food, economic, and energy sovereignty at +4°C
- Protecting our natural and cultural heritage
- Mobilizing all sectors of society to achieve adaptation
This plan was developed through a collaborative approach involving the State, local governments, economic players, and citizens. The final version published today is the result of several months of consultation, including two months of public consultation. Nearly **6,000 contributions** were received, including **176 position papers** from stakeholders. These contributions have been invaluable in refining the PNACC. The plan has also been enriched by recommendations from the **National Council for Ecological Transition**, which represents trade unions, environmental organizations, local elected officials, and youth representatives. The Council approved the plan almost unanimously, demonstrating broad support from various sectors.
The PNACC must serve as our guide in addressing the challenges ahead. To be effective, it will be implemented at the local level, working closely with elected officials, businesses, workers, farmers, associations, and citizens, as well as all ministries involved in resilience efforts.
Adapting does not mean giving up. It means adding another tool to our ecological action, doing everything possible to limit the effects of climate disruption while preparing our country for its economic, social, and environmental impacts. That is our mission.
---
### FRANCE ADOPTS A NEW ADAPTATION PLAN
#### **A Pioneer in Adaptation**
France has been proactive in adaptation policies since 2006, establishing a national strategy seven years before the European Union's first adaptation strategy. In 2011, it published a methodological plan, the first of its kind in Europe. Since 2018, adaptation policy has been guided by the second National Adaptation Plan.
This third National Adaptation Plan marks a shift in scale.
#### **A First-Time Reference Trajectory**
The new plan is based on a **Reference Warming Trajectory for Adaptation to Climate Change (TRACC)**, preparing France for increasing temperature levels:
- **2024**: +1.7°C
- **2030**: +2°C
- **2050**: +2.7°C
- **2100**: +4°C
This trajectory follows the trend scenario from the **Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)**, factoring in current global mitigation policies and additional commitments made by nations under the Paris Agreement.
#### **An Integrated Strategy**
This plan aims to make climate adaptation a systematic consideration across all public policies, including health, economy, agriculture, biodiversity, education, labor, urban planning, housing, transport, and culture.
Step by step, it prepares us to **live, work, and move** in a France at **+4°C**.
#### **Key Measures**
1. **Protecting the Population:** Prevention against natural disasters, improved insurance frameworks, and adaptation of housing to extreme heat.
2. **Ensuring Resilient Infrastructure & Services:** Enhancing resilience in energy, transport, and communication systems.
3. **Adapting Human Activities:** Supporting businesses, agriculture, and tourism in adapting to climate conditions.
4. **Protecting Natural & Cultural Heritage:** Conservation of forests, coastlines, and major cultural sites from climate impacts.
5. **Mobilizing All Sectors:** Engaging the private sector, research institutions, and citizens in adaptation efforts.
---
### CLIMATE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR MAINLAND FRANCE BY 2100
#### **Already Visible Impacts**
- **Heatwaves:** 9 of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 2010.
- **Biodiversity Loss:** 2,300 species threatened.
- **Sea Level Rise:** +20 cm since 1900.
- **Marine Submersion Risks:** 1.5 million people at risk.
- **Flooding:** 313 municipalities declared in a state of natural disaster in 2023-2024.
- **Coastal Erosion:** 20% of France's 5,000 km of coastline already affected.
- **Expansion of Tiger Mosquitoes:** Present in 78 mainland departments.
- **Average Temperature Rise:** +1.7°C since 1900.
#### **Projected Impacts**
- **Forest Fires:** Season duration extended by up to 4 months.
- **Glacier Loss:** 50% volume reduction since 1850, with near-total disappearance by 2100.
- **Droughts:** Severe droughts doubling or tripling in frequency.
- **Declining Snow Cover:** Up to a 70% reduction in snowfall in mid-altitudes.
---
### FINANCING THE PNACC
- The **Barnier Fund** increased by +75 million euros to **300 million euros**.
- **Green Fund** mobilized with **260 million euros** for adaptation measures.
- Nearly **1 billion euros** allocated by **Water Agencies**, with 40% dedicated to nature-based solutions.
- **Funds dedicated to soil movement risks** (shrink-swell of clay).
- A **new measure encouraging private sector adaptation financing** to be studied in 2026.
---
### PUBLIC CONSULTATION RESULTS
A **public consultation** on the PNACC was held from **October to December 2024**, gathering nearly **6,000 responses** and **175 stakeholder position papers**, demonstrating strong public interest in climate adaptation.
The PNACC is France’s roadmap to preparing for a climate at +4°C, ensuring resilience across all sectors while continuing global efforts to reduce emissions.
For the full plan, visit **ecologie.gouv.fr**.
