Texas and Other US Power Shortages 11

[Mbrooke]

Seems like a lot of people are losing power from the cold:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/winter-fury-unleashes-freeze-over-022658884.html

Any idea what is causing all this? Besides the weather of course.

 

[dik]

for fear of starting a fight, my tagline says it all...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[Mbrooke]

Well they did lose half their wind turbine capacity. Someone can confirm, but I heard that 30,000MW of generation tripped off line.

 

[3DDave]

What fight? The tagline tells people they are helpless to do anything. Can't fight against God's wrath can you?

Apparently this happens every 10 years in Texas as they would rather boost executive pay than winterize their power generation plants. arsTechnica has a lot more information.

There is a link to the last time 2011,

https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/08-16-11-report.pdf

and this, a summary:

https://www.powermag.com/ferc-nerc-february-blackouts-in-the-southwest-could-have-been-avoided/

(note Feb 2011, not 2021.) No one learns.

Apparently Texans subscribe to power companies; it's not the company that actually has wires on the street. One of them let rates drift up in this to the point that customers were paying $9 per hour to heat their homes. The suggestion was to switch to a lower cost provider.

 

[Turn_of_the_Screw]

Link to areTechnica article: [URL unfurl="true"]https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/[/url]

Looks like it wasn't just wind, but all types of power plants, coal, natural gas, and nuclear.

Authorities will probably need several weeks, if not longer, to fully understand how so much generating capacity was taken offline at what turned out to be a period of critical demand.

I can't wait for turbines to be the popular issue and all the talking heads going on and on about how green energy is literally killing us. Which leads me to my favorite line from the article, a caption from the thumbnail picture:

Wind turbines can apparently operate in Antarctica, so it's not clear what Texas' problem is.

Chris

 

[cranky108]

Wind turbines with ice tend to operate like a car tire that is unbalanced. Or does anyone remember the lead weights that would put on tires?

Gas at the wellhead, can have water in it, which tends to freeze. So until the water is removed, at a finishing plant (or whatever they call them? We called then Helium plants, as that is one of the things they remove from the raw gas).

Dry gas is likely not the problem.

Freeze proofing has been a problem at power plants, but then, if there is no gas that is also a problem.

Outside coal bunkers can freeze when wet, but one would think a D9 can break that up (if it will start).

 

[Mbrooke]

I'm still confused though. How is it that power plants in New England and Canada don't freeze?

 

[LionelHutz]

No one learns.

Exactly. If anything I'd even expect the grid to now be less capable of handling these weather events than it was 10 years ago.

I do recall that last event. I believe there was a thread or two here about it. Not much of a surprise that a cold weather event happened, even though certain groups are acting like it's a sign.

 

[cranky108]

It is a sign. Go with more green energy, so you can freeze in the dark.

It is also a sign that people forget history.

Texas remember the Alamo, because you lost that one.

 

[dpc]

It represents serious problems with the planning by ERCOT. ERCOT's "Extreme Peak Load" estimate was 67,208 MW. Sunday night, the peak was 69,150 MW. Inadequate capacity margins. The expected contribution by wind turbines during weather this cold was already heavily discounted, and actual output was far below this. Solar is negligible. The loss of a huge amount of thermal (gas) generation was the proximate cause of the grid collapse - or near-collapse - not sure what really happened. I don't know if that was totally due to inadequate gas supplies or other mechanical issues related to the cold weather. I suspect a lot of these gas turbine plants don't have firm gas contracts. Either way, adequate margins are needed even during extreme events.

Another way to think about this - in Texas, about $73 billion has been spent on wind and solar generation and related transmission. What if that $73 billion had been spent on nuclear power?

For those blaming the weather - planners get paid to anticipate weather events like this. It does get this cold in Texas from time to time. Even if curtailment was necessary, larger industrial loads should have been shed first. These rolling blackouts are an absolute last resort. And it's not just Texas. Deregulation has probably thinned out generation margins throughout the US.

 

[3DDave]

Thanks Turn_of_the_Screw - I was in the midst of the arsTechnica comments and forgot to copy/paste to the main article due to distraction with reading the FERC and PowerMag articles (which I did manage links to) which were far down in the arsTechnica comments.


Mbrooke - the plants in Canada and New England don't freeze because they see freezing weather every year and so no one there can put up a PowerPoint chart that says "In the last 5 years we have reduced costs by not preparing and nothing bad happened." Put that chart up 5 years in a row and the situation is what it is today. Same with putting insulation on home water pipes, or, in the case of at least one major Dallas hotel, on the business water pipes which burst and sent all their guests back into the dark cold night.

 

[cranky108]

Actually I believe there were several industrial plants closed during the cold in Texas and area. I can't say why I know, but likely gasolene is not the only thing going up in price.

Maybe try food?

 

[itsmoked]

What if that $73 billion had been spent on nuclear power?

Sadly, that would mean they'd probably have one more 2GW nuke plant.

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[davidbeach]

That Texas tries to do electricity all on its own doesn't help. If Texas was in the Eastern Interconnect they wouldn't have rolling blackouts, but that wouldn't be the Texas way.

I’ll see your silver lining and raise you two black clouds. - Protection Operations

 

[alehman]

Not to be argumentative, but I live in the eastern interconnection (SPP area) and we have had rolling blackouts two days in a row. It was -14F this morning when we went dark and the house got cold very quickly. Unlike some of the ranting crazies on Facebook, I gladly accept an hour of cold knowing it will be back on soon, as opposed to the unknown alternative. Makes one appreciate how important this electricity and gas stuff is...

Alan
The engineer's first problem in any design situation is to discover what the problem really is. Unk.

 

[Mbrooke]

@David: Considering how many local plants tripped, wouldn't the amount of power needed over the Eastern interconnection be just to great? I'd imagine ties would reach their thermal limits while the areas around Mason and Parker county would have depressed voltages.

 

[Mbrooke]

@Itsmoked: The US needs 502 multi reactor 2,200MW output nuclear plants scattered through out the US with a 765kv system interconnecting it all. This would be the ideal scenario for me.

Relying on anything else is not only green, but bound to fail as we are seeing now.

 

[davidbeach]

Ok, perhaps assumptions based on "the other side". There are various, very significant, differences between how the eastern interconnect works vs. how the western interconnect works. Load shedding is very rare in the west (except in CA, except in the period of time the PV is falling off a cliff in the evening on hot days, except when various transmission paths have outage based constraints). Everybody is supposed to have enough reserves lined up to cover their MCC (maximum credible contingency) and it seems to mostly work. But the two big grids work very differently and Texas has very little border with the western interconnect and lots of border with the eastern. Hadn't heard of other eastern interconnect capacity issues. Close enough to the hydro resources anything can be dealt with by sending more water downstream.

I’ll see your silver lining and raise you two black clouds. - Protection Operations

 

[cranky108]

Actually SPP has issues with capacity, and Xcel energy in the west has asked customers to cut back. That maybe because of how close it is with the east. Or because of the DC tie to SPP, and their sister in SPP.
But all that wind in Kansas I doubt is helping SPP. Same as the wind in Texas.

Even without wind generation, Texas is still full of wind (just a different type).

David is correct, each powerpool is suppose to have enough reserves, but believing wind and solar are firm power is a problem. And so is the lack of freeze proofing in the gas industry.

 

[dpc]

I agree that whatever the power generation method, inadequate protection from cold weather is a big problem in Texas. Similar problems occurred in 2011 and also in the late 80s, IIRC. The more or less total deregulation of the electric power industry in Texas has been a disaster, IMO. If you are one of the retail utilities, do you really want to repair your downed lines right now so you'll be forced to buy power at $1000/MWh and then sell it to your customers at the agreed price of maybe $120 MWh? If you're a merchant power plant, what is the payback in providing solid cold weather protection? It probably doesn't pencil out. The incentives are all wrong.