Texas power issues. Windfarms getting iced up. 67

[Alistair_Heaton]

That's a lot of capacity that's been lost. Must admit being Aberdonian we always associate Texas with hot and humid... Not snow storms.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...nd-turbines-texas-power-outages-b1802596.html

 

[Spartan5]

Can Alistair change the title from “Windfarms getting iced up” to “Texas fracked up”?

Also, a good image of supply relative to projected demand during all of this:
[image]

https://res.cloudinary.com/engineer...96775-E381-43E5-A265-BEAB9F7417B9_rfna3r.webp

[/image]

 

[dik]

Spartan... that's frack with a 'u'? I would assume...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[1503-44]

Your retailer made his price and his fair profit. He's only sorry he's in the power business and that he didn't buy any Bitcoins instead, like most of the rest of us.

 

[racookpe1978]

My understanding (I could be mistaken about this), is that emissions criteria was waived to allow every last kWh to be squeezed out.

As I understand it, the Biden administration's EPA refused to waive existing NOX emission restrictions, which would have permitted the CT's to "overrev" (go hotter than optimum for NOX emission levels) and so produce many percent points higher power. 200 Meg CT being able to generate 225, for example, maybe 230. The higher gas turbine outlet temperatures then create higher combined cycle steam pressures and temperatures with no increase in fuel flow. That change in exhaust gas temperature will also generate more power from the steam turbine side of the power plants.

But losing gas line pressure shuts the CT down. And no electric power shuts the house gas heating down because of no fan power.

BUT! Mid and South Texas - the regions most affected ARE NOT WINTER CLIMATES. I grew up there (San Antonio, Houston, Bastrop, Austin, Medina and Medina Valley, the Hill Country.) Spring through late fall require air conditioning now, required fans and open windows back then. High electric bills are the killer down in that region, because high electric bills are a every-day trouble for 9 months every year.
Heat protection in that region and heat-tracing wires and steam/water sensing line protection against a once-in-a-hundred-year freezing event is required, well, frankly, once in every hundred years.
North Texas? Already heat-traced.
The Valley and far south Texas? Didn't need it. Doesn't need it any more than Hawaii needs it.

 

[FacEngrPE]

Fischstabchen
Perhaps i get some of the details wrong, but the effective result is that the way the entire system Generation, Transmission, Market, reliability, and so on works in Texas is different from the way it works elsewhere in the US. And of course Europe.

A search of FERC's site for documents related to texasRE indicates some audit activity, but the documents are sufficiently redacted that it is not possible to understand either findings or actions taken. I guess that is all ruled proprietary.

I am not saying that the Texas system is better or worse than elsewhere. I pay more for power than Texans do. I think I get good value for my utility bill. Others come to a different conclusion. If enough Texans want the rules in Texas to favor lower peak prices, and higher reliability, they can have Texas's market rules changed to value those factors over the lowest possible rates.

 

[Spartan5]

Emissions limits and restrictions were waived by DOE upon request by ERCOT:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-agencies-exceed-emissions-limits/4546085001/

 

[1503-44]

My old man, chief metalurgist at Cameron Iron Works, used to say he could make a titanium blow out preventor, but nobody could afford to buy it.

The question now becomes, is it worth it to extend the capability of the system to cover these events. Are these events more frequent or more severe than before? How many people and businesses are being affected and how badly? Will it change the definition of the region's design storm event scale. And if there will be building code changes as a result. I believe Katrina forced some rethinking of the definition of the 100yr wave in the Gulf of Mexico, the height of storm surges and flood risk along the coast. Not sure if design wind loads changed or not.

The cost to the TX economy from Winter of Feb 2021 is already being estimated to be more than the $20 B of Katrina. That amounted to $700 PP (pop TX).

Spartans, thanks for confirming the emissions question.

 

[Fischstabchen]

FacEngPE,

I don't think you are grasping how much of the electrical system is deregulated in the U.S. More people in the U.S. live in deregulated markets than regulated markets. The Texas Interconnect follows NERC rules and operates mostly with a few exceptions around San Antonio and Austin with deregulated markets.
If you asked me what make the Texas Interconnect different, the only thing I could tell you is that it is a an interconnect created by and for a state. I don't particularly think this is a good thing from a reliability point of view but it is a interconnect with about 76 GW of load. It has day ahead markets and nodal pricing just like MISO. I am failing to see what is so radically different. Nobody really says what is different and it starts feeling like a phantom reason. In fact, if you were to ask me what region is much different than any other it would be PJM in the eastern interconnect. They are ,in my opinion at least, the most proactive ISO. Much of what gets adopted by other ISOs started in PJm.

Map of states with deregulated electrical markets

https://www.electricchoice.com/map-deregulated-energy-markets/

 

[1503-44]

What is different is that it is HUGE.
TWICE the capacity of #2 California.
Who's really capable of backing it up?
Its 1500 km Austin to Hoover Dam and 1200km to TVA territory.
Distance from and capacity of other significant potential resources is undoubtedly the greatest factor in why it is independent.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Europe has been deregulated for over 20 years 1990's its started coming in. UK was one of the first to put it through for electricity and 5 years later for gas, which is linked to the conversations about the initial sales techniques and how the Brits are a bit more street wise to the sales ploy's than some other countries. But those of us that are wise to them are in the minority.

And I was right 28th of Feb the emails arrived today in Estonia to try a persuade me to go spot price. But I have already signed a contract for this year. 1.2 cents lower than the latest fixed price contract, but 1.5 cents higher that the average spot rate for the year but cheaper than Nov-Feb average Which is when I mainly pull from the grid.

I don't have a clue how they deal with spinning reserves in Europe and passing the price onto consumers. I think its included in the grid charges which make up 55% of the price of a kWh consumed where I am. There is discounts on that with peak and off peak usage but its constant all year round which is yet another contract. There is another contract as well which I really don't understand what its for or how the price is calculated but as its only a couple of euro a month and you can't get out of it I haven't bothered digging deeper.


The more I read about ripple receivers and selective load shedding by the grid the more I see its pretty much inevitable requirement. I certainly would not have a problem with all the lights and the TV going off but the heatpump staying on with a set temp of 10 deg C plus the water pump for the well. It takes my place 3 days to go from 20 deg's down to 10 deg's when its -20 outside.

 

[RedSnake]

This is how the bill for connecting to the grid is calculated in Sweden.
How much different it is in the Baltics or in the rest of Scandinavia I do not know but since they all a part of Nord Pool and much is regulated with EU directives, I think it might bee quit the same.

The transmission network tariff consists of two fees
The transmission network tariff is central to the financing of Svenska kraftnät's operations and payment of customers who use the transmission network. The transmission network tariff consists of two parts:

1.The power fee shall cover operation, maintenance, depreciation and capital costs for the transmission network. The fee is based on the customer's subscribed effects for input and output at each connection point.

2. The energy charge shall cover costs for the transmission losses on the transmission network, which are caused by input and output in the individual connection points. Each input and output point has its own fee based on geographical location in the network.

If the customer's input or withdrawal increases the transmission losses in the network, the energy fee must be paid. In cases where the customer's input or withdrawal results in reduced grid losses, Svenska kraftnät instead pays out so-called energy compensation

The last part is actually how it works sometimes I get reduction on my bill if last bill was to high I din't use as much power as expected.

Best Regards A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[RedSnake]

And this is how the Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) is bought and what they are investigating right now.

At present, the bids for FCR are cost-based and payment is made on the basis of each bid, so-called "pay-as-bid".
A change in the market design that has been discussed is a transition to free pricing and marginal pricing, so-called "pay-as-cleared".
The FCR market today is characterized by a high market concentration, with which there are increased risks of strategic bidding and significant increases in constancy, which in the long run would affect electricity customers.

Against this background, Svenska kraftnät has carried out an R&D project in which the Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) has analyzed how a transition to marginal pricing and free bidding can affect the market for FCR-N.
The project was implemented in the autumn of 2020 based on three main issues:

1. What effect does a change from cost-based to free bidding have?
2. How is the market affected by a transition from pay-as-bid to marginal pricing?
3. What effect can new market players and different degrees of competition on the FCR-N market have during a new market design?

The analysis shows that a change from cost-based to free bidding can increase costs even if only one player acts strategically.
With only market participants today, bids would deviate from true alternative costs during 80% of the time during pay-as-bid or more than 60% of the time if marginal pricing is used.
However, this effect can be counteracted with new market players and increased competition, partly by new bids crowding out more expensive bids and partly by the bidding of existing players being affected by increased competition.

Best Regards A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Seems there is a 2.1 billion hole in payments after the event which is 17%.

Now the cynic in me suspects that debt has already been passed onto related parties and will be extracted out of the small people in full.

The energy retailers will do a phoenix to reappear at a later date.

I suspect some of the gas and energy suppliers might be glad they shut down and are out of the mess.

 

[Spartan5]

What is different is that it is HUGE.
TWICE the capacity of #2 California.
Who's really capable of backing it up?
Its 1500 km Austin to Hoover Dam and 1200km to TVA territory.
Distance from and capacity of other significant potential resources is undoubtedly the greatest factor in why it is independent.

Twice that capacity of California which has 40% more people to supply than Texas.

I take it there’s not much in the way of efficiency standards or conservation programs down there.

 

[Fischstabchen]

Spartan5,

The gulf coast along Texas and Louisiana is the industrial center fo the U.S. That is why its load is disproportionate to its population. You literally have miles of refineries and chemical plants. There isn't any place in the U.S. and I suspect possibly the world that is as dense with industry. It is pretty eye opening the first time you see it. The electrical grid in the Houston area itself is pretty odd for a metro due to how much load it has for its area and population. It is very strong and compact for the load it serves.

 

[electricpete]

[Texas has]Twice that capacity of California which has 40% more people to supply than Texas]

Wow. I live here and I didn't realize that, although I agree with Fischstabchen the miles and miles of refinery related industry at certain points along the coast are hard to miss.

I was impressed with the reported scale of power usage at the LNG export project in Freeport TX about 15 miles from my home:

...sizable new load from the LNG export facility expected to start service in 2018.

The 656MW increase in power demand from the facility is the equivalent of the projected load growth for all of New England in the next three years. The projected load equals the consumption of 328,000 new Texas homes during mild weather.

=====================================
(2B)+(2B)' ?

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

https://news.yahoo.com/texas-electric-firm-griddy-loses-002356449.html

more on the cash situation, seems griddy is now gone.

 

[Spartan5]

I understand there is tremendous industrial demand. But do all of those processes take priority over human lives? Would declaring a state of emergency had helped with the problem?

 

[JohnRBaker]

Yes, Griddy was one those 'power companies' that was responsible for those outrageously high electric bills that were reported in the news the last couple of weeks during the Texas power crisis.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[Fischstabchen]

It is a stretch to say that Griddy was responsible for outrageous electrical bills. People signed on for normally low ,extremely low, variable rates and Griddy kept their agreement. Their only fault was in my opinion not covering their ass if they had a bunch of customers not pay up. I would have strong hesitations offering variable rates without coverage or taking on customers that knew if they delayed payment for three days I would have to dissolve my business.