Upcoming Disaster DEF Shortage 5

[TugboatEng]

It looks like China is going to implement an export ban of Urea next month, e key ingredients for both fertilizer and DEF. We are already seeing the impact of high fertilizer prices on our food supply but I believe a DEF shortage will have much more dire consequences.

You can grow a crop with less fertilizer but you can't drive a truck with less DEF. A lot of people are about to learn the hard way that the engine derates and lockouts that are only resettable by the dealers are not unique to the John Deere brand.

There should be an emergency push from the government for engine manufacturers to have programming ready to temporarily bypass DEF quality sensors in the event of shortage.

 

[monkeydog]

This administration manages by crisis only.

 

[dik]

Not just this one.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[CWB1]

Is anybody tracking how many different products the media has cried wolf, err, shortage over in the past two years? While I dont mind buying deals from hoarders after the fact, the nonsense is getting a bit old at this point.

 

[TugboatEng]

CWB1, that's why this one has me so concerned. The media hasn't mentioned it. If you admit that it's coming, then do nothing to stop it, you can't blame the other guy.

Bypassing the DEF quality sensor would allow operators to fill the tanks with distilled water to get them by until the shortage clears. Importantly, it preserves the integrity of the system so it can be toggled responsively.

 

[enginesrus]

DEF is a much easier work around than no diesel fuel. Like Tugboat mentions.

 

[1503-44]

Management of, or by, crisis is far better than running around creating crisis on an hourly basis.

I don't recall any major China supply issues before somebody canceled the trade agreements.

A black swan to a turkey is a white swan to the butcher ... and to Boeing.

 

[GregLocock]

I've just discovered the bulk price of natural gas in Australia to Australian big customers in 2022 is usually $11 per GJ. Spot price is now $44. The rising cost of AdBlue seems completely out of whack with that. I'll do the sums tomorrow.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[Spartan5]

There should be an emergency push from the government for engine manufacturers to have programming ready to temporarily bypass DEF quality sensors in the event of shortage.

It’s great that you are thinking proactively about this.

What with that and the impacts on food prices, is it time for a national moratorium on turf fertilization?

Possibly sin taxes on meat consumption as well considering that, pound for pound of resource consumption, it’s the most inefficient means of feeding a population.

And perhaps it’s time for waste separating toilets in all new construction with onsite retention of nitrogenous waste to close that part of the cycle.

Maybe even hold a WWIIesque “urine drive” to have everyone do their part to help stick it to China. Hell, our conservative contingent of truck drivers across America are already halfway there! We just need to get them to deposit their Gatorade bottles full of piss into a common collection location instead of chucking them out of their windows into the median!

 

[enginesrus]

1503-44 (Petroleum)
28 May 22 08:27
Management of, or by, crisis is far better than running around creating crisis on an hourly basis.

I don't recall any major China supply issues before somebody canceled the trade agreements.

A black swan to a turkey is a white swan to the butcher ... and to Boeing.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We had zero such problems in the 60's. Manufacturing was in the homeland then.

Nor was there a pandemic either.

Oh and there was no DEF then either.

 

[Spartan5]

We had zero such problems in the 60's. Manufacturing was in the homeland then.

Nor was there a pandemic either.

Oh and there was no DEF then either.

Yeah. We just had rivers catching on fire back then. Good times!

 

[dik]

It's going to get a whole lot more interesting. I understand that diesel engines are slowly on their way out in Europe.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[dik]

I think that's part of the problem...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

dik, phasing out diesel doesn't alleviate the problem. Natural gas fueled industrial engines also utilize selective catalytic reduction. The focus is on diesel only because industrial gas engines were uncommon until recent advancements in pre-combustion chamber technology.

 

[hokie66]

Spartan5,
I'm all for pissing on China, but if we collect it all, how do we get it there.

dik,
No that attitude is the problem.

 

[dik]

I suspect to address the issue, there are going to be some major lifestyle changes... diesel is just a part of it...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Dik, this is more serious. Imagine trucks full of medicine shutting down randomly on the highway. Unlike fuel shortages, the DEF shortage is going to have a legislated impact so it's going to be much sharper

 

[thebard3]

'Shortage' often means you can still buy it, but the price is increased because there's a shortage.

Brad Waybright

The more you know, the more you know you don't know.

 

[CWB1]

The media hasn't mentioned it

It’s been going around social media for months, usually with the claim that China supplies 90% of the world’s urea. From what I’ve gathered China only supplies ~20% so while it could drive prices up its not a crisis, esp in a country that’s also a major producer.

 

[1503-44]

Social media created the crisis, let social media solve it. Oh wait. They don't solve anything, They're their own crisis.

A black swan to a turkey is a white swan to the butcher ... and to Boeing.