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A coming engineering shortage ? ---- Who agrees ? 86

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Not exactly. Legal migration is way more regulated yes, true, but that doesn't help when the supply was legally flooded.

Reaction to change doesn't stop it :-)
 
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What exactly is a " high 6-figure salary"? We should also account for cost of living in differing areas.
 
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Let's say that it was "high" enough that more than a few have since become semi-retired, just from banking their salaries. Alphabet supposedly experienced a severe "brain drain" in their self-driving car group because of this.

For "ordinary" mortals, internships last year were priced at effectively $96 k/annum; this was for college students still in school. Starting salaries were probably on the order of $120 k.

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Not sure if is correct to lump together the software engineers with the physical science type engineers in your comparison. Some are still reluctant to call software engineers, engineers. The difference is more than semantics.
 
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IRstuff: a diminishingly small number of engineers earn those high salaries. Yes, a few engineers in Canada earn high salaries too- some of them actually still do engineering...You keep bringing up the salaries of engineers working for places like Google as if it actually indicates some kind of trend meaningful to the engineering profession at large, and it simply doesn't.

My point is simply this: engineers here in Ontario, within living memory, earned more than either doctors and lawyers. We now earn a fraction of what those professions earn in median terms- in fact we're now on par with teachers in terms of pay. It's very clear WHY that reversal happened here- we allowed our profession to become a commodity, whereas the other professions didn't. Teachers unionized- so did the doctors, though they don't call their union a union. Lawyers didn't unionize, but they didn't allow law firms to practice law in their own name- they permit partnerships but don't grant licenses to corporations to practice law in their own names using armies of paralegals, for instance. There is no exemption from licensure for the practice of law, period- lawyers are very good at making rules which ensure there is always a job for lawyers. They also are still the most prominent profession in politics.



 
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The notion that is salaries would increase due to licensure is flawed. If there were 10 times the number of licensed engineers, the salary structure would collapse altogether, simply because there would be an over supply.

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Salaries won't increase again. No point in closing the barn door 30 years after it was kicked open- that horse is dead. So you're right- even if we were to get rid of the industrial exemption and reform the C of A, the market is so flooded with licensees that wages would not rise in a meaningful way. The likelihood of meaningful reform to the C of A is zero, and even the IE in Ontario- the only province which has one- can't be removed without a hue and cry from the business lobby- we tried two or three years ago and failed.

Right now even the requirement for 1 yr of experience mentored by a licencee prior to licensure (so the licensee at least has a chance to determine if the person actually understands the legal and ethical requirements of licensure) is under attack as contrary to the human rights of immigrant engineers. So the trend is for even more supply. The prospects for a demand-side solution to falling engineering wages are basically zero. With the profession only able to "capture" less than half of its own graduates, it's tough to see how things could get worse, but we're trying our best. I'm sure if we maintain a sufficiently positive attitude about what a great gig it is to be an engineer, and how there are always shortages of engineers, and how well engineers are paid, we'll be successful.
 
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The notion that is salaries would increase due to licensure is flawed. If there were 10 times the number of licensed engineers, the salary structure would collapse altogether, simply because there would be an over supply.
Click to expand...

Agreed. One approach that has been suggested however is a Grad degree as a minimum for licensure. I've never agreed with the idea, but I guess it actually would cut down on the supply.
 
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Will it be a shortage of engineers? Or will it be a shortage of talent?

Companies sometimes will assign a young engineer primarily with repetitive and dull responsibilities that don't grow their skillset. Once you kill a guy's enthusiasm, it won't come back as strongly ever again. Throw the young guys in the mix enough to keep them engaged and challenged.

"Formal education is a weapon, whose effect depends on who holds it in his hands and at whom it is aimed." ~ Joseph Stalin
 
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"With the profession only able to "capture" less than half of its own graduates,"

THIS pretty much tells you that we're in an over supply condition that's unlikely to change. While a graduate degree could potentially drive down the supply, I doubt that there will be much impact. In my high school years, taking 3 AP classes was considered to be high achieving, and there was no IB whatsoever. Today's high schoolers, in the college prep pathway, take at least 12 AP classes, and many take an additional 7 IB exams. With an appropriate selection of such classes, and a firm and early decision of a major, finishing college in 3 years is achievable, so adding another year for an MS simply brings you back to 4 years of college, total.


Earlier there was a comment about CS not being engineering; UC Berkeley's College of Engineering's CS degree is EE-CS (they call it "eeks"), i.e., electrical engineering/computer science, so for them, CS is an engineering degree and discipline, and graduates have to fulfill the requirements of an engineering degree.

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I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list
 
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If you make masters degree a requirement then you'll just end up with Academia getting rich and an increase in student debt etc.

It's one thing to raise the bar because you actually need the extra skills etc. you get from a Masters, using it to crudely prune the supply side is very questionable in my view.

One aspect to the 'shortage' that I saw alluded to in an article a while back is that some very capable students in STEM perceive that it's harder for them to keep their grades up than their colleagues in some other subjects so they transfer. I forget if they followed this as far as checking that with these other degrees they get similar employment opportunities & ROI etc. One might argue this could be a good thing that the people staying in STEM are more engaged & enthusiastic etc. even if not always as academically gifted. Or, one might be concerned that many of the 'brightest & best' are leaving STEM education for paths they see as giving better reward for investment.

Not to fear though if the 'native' STEM Phd candidates drop out to go basket weaving or work on wall street, we'll fill the Phd programs with imported talent (some of it not particularly exceptional) and skirt the H1B limits because student visas can be transferred to H1B without counting against the quota. Then our vaunted tech industry will have all the indentured servants it can handle.

(Sorry, may be a little grumpy today so take with a pinch of salt as needed.)

Posting guidelines faq731-376 (probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: faq1088-1484​
 
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Star for Kenat. I couldn't agree more with your first two statements.
 
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To put things in perspective with the topic, the article linked by the OP was talking about a very specific situation in the power industry, which does likely have a shortage due to an age-gap.

Engineering as a whole could certainly have a glut while the power industry and other niche fields like programming have a shortage. Lucky for them.

As a Mechanical Engineer (BSME), I certainly feel like this is the case. When I graduated five years ago, I had a gut feeling that the piece of paper I received was a dime a dozen.

That being said, I still think there is a chance for superior talent and work ethic (hoping that I have both in sufficient supply) to prevail over a glut of degree holders. It's interesting to discuss the topic, but as an individual it does no good to blame immigrants, government policies, or our engineering forebears for one's own plight.

At this point I often joke that, if I had it to do over, I would have been a dentist or a dermatologist. Work half the time for ten times the pay. Alas, who can predict what the perfect job would look like in their future self's eyes?
 
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"article linked by the OP was talking about a very specific situation in the power industry, which does likely have a shortage due to a hiring an age-gap at some point in the past"

I mean, it's not like the ageing process and typical retirement ages etc. are so unpredictable that it's a meaningful excuse.

Posting guidelines faq731-376 (probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: faq1088-1484​
 
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KENAT, true enough. If there is a real shortage now, it's because they ignored a slowly developing shortage for decades. Students picking majors cannot be blamed for turning away from a future of perceived boredom and mediocre pay.
 
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Even when I went to college, which was MANY moons ago, electric power was a waning discipline, other than electronic power supply design. Slobodan Cuk had just invented his converter topology.

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I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list
 
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So power engineering is a cycle like the aircraft industry. The cycle is about 30 years.

That being said, many universities don't teach electric power. That maybe because teaching pays so much less than the actual industry.
I am assuming teaching other areas of engineering pays closer to the industry wages.

The other side of it is for a long time microelectronics engineering has paid so much better than power engineering, likely to the point there were very few people going into the power option.

 
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The best instructors for power engineering would be retired power engineers. They have the knowledge and can afford to take the relatively poor pay of an adunct professor.
 
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I think some of the lack of growth (wrt salaries) has been the sluggish economy. (That may be something we are forgetting here.) Even in the "recovery" years we've had since 2008, it hasn't been 5-7% years (like we had in the mid-80's). In 2004-2007, I was getting outrageous offers to leave where I was working (same thing in the late 90's).
 
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"many universities don't teach electric power."

There's just not that much demand for courses. If there were demand, there'd be professors hired to do the teaching.

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I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list
 
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