Acapulco now modern ruins 54

[Reverse_Bias]

This is one of the few instances of a city with lots of fancy high rise buildings taking a direct hit from a catagory 5 hurricane. Almost every inhabitable structure in and around Acapulco looks gutted. No doubt this is going to take years to get it back to its pre storm status.

Hurricane Otis was predicted to be a tropical storm at landfall the day before, so it also represents a modern weather forecasting being pushed beyond its limits.

https://youtu.be/pTjMK4qCDyg?si=zX8U2M9BeFjkkORv

https://youtu.be/0Pb9iq4cbS8?si=QzSzZF6-8qhPxefS

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

tug look at the whole area land mass elevation. its way more than 2 ft of water maybe they can all go to living on stilts and dump the cars for boats.

 

[EdStainless]

I have a friend in FL who lives in a location that has seen very little storm activity in the last 150 years.
His property is about 1/2 mi from the current waterfront and sits about 20' above mean-high tide.
Before he built his house, he had some core samples taken.
Down a ways they found two layers of storm deposits, and one of them was very thick such as from a big storm.
He talked to a few experts, and they estimated that this was about 350-450 years ago.
He built the house higher and stronger than he originally intended.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
P.E. Metallurgy, consulting work welcomed

 

[WesternJeb]

What is the life expectancy of a typical Florida coastal building? 50 years?

We had a geotech scold us one time because we built a building atop a layer of shale, in which it would settle a couple inches starting at around 50 years.. He called us every name you could imagine beside "idiot" because he couldn't understand that we only design building for 50 year lifespans. But then again, geologists think in terms of millennia, not decades.

As with the recent leaning tower discussion in Italy, I would consider a vast majority of these to be considered successes if they are over 50 years old. It seems that almost all of the high-rises that, while architecturally are trashed, withstood the hurricane forces for the intended life safety function that we design for. A Win in my book for Mexico, given the lack of quality control in a lot of areas and age of some structures.

 

[3DDave]

"No need for a policy change due to climate change, just rebuild higher when the time comes."

Exactly my reason that pumping poison into drinking water supplies should be allowed by chemical companies.

Just move if the water makes you sick.

That is happening to New Orleans where, because rain distribution has slowed runoff, the sea water is no longer forced past the fresh water intakes. So, just relocate New Orleans and abandon it. Soon Manhattan Island, much of Florida.

Who knows if California develops a nuclear first strike capability for use against Colorado and Nevada when the Water Wars really heat up. Certainly that situation could happen if China cuts the headwaters from reaching India out of either Mongolia or Tibet

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

My barn in the hobby froum has a design of 25 years... due to using aerated concrete structure, the floating slab foundations are 50 years plus....

Will any of the local building control understand the restrictions of the materials... no not a chance.

 

[Brian Malone]

Just my anecdotal observation on some aspects of the possible integrity of some construction in Mexico. In the late 90s, I was with a group of gearheads/motorheads on a bachelor party jaunt down to Cancun and between the drinking and partying we did notice a mid-age hotel that was being dismantled near the beach. We marveled at the level of manual labor that was being used with gangs of laborers chipping away at balcony railings with pike poles and such, where US stateside that task would have done by way fewer humans and more hydraulic powered equipment. Chipping away all day, every day, the railings were removed and then the concrete shattered and removed. The other observation that made it through our somewhat party-numbed minds was the depth of anchorage for railings appeared shockingly shallow. Maybe 6 to 8 inches for a waist high rail. And being ocean front construction there was plenty of rust. We all decided though we were all young, fit and bold, we were not going to continue to dangle over and on the railings of our hotel balconies.

 

[fel3]

3DDave…

In a water war, California would be far better off targeting Oregon and Washington instead of Colorado and Nevada. Except for Lost Wages' draw from the Colorado River, Nevada has all of 6 gallons to its name. British Columbia and/or Alaska would be even better. I will let Governor Slick Hair know about the change in plans.

Related to water shortages is this old episode of "Fernwood Tonight" (Martin Mull as Barth Gimball and Fred Willard as Jerry Hubbard):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Li8p8cnPas.

The applicable segment runs from 7:34-14:26. At ~11:28, Jerry brings up the potential problem of water tankers having a spill and polluting the ocean with fresh water. "Fernwood Tonight" was one of my delay-getting-to-my-homework excuses while in college.

============
"Is it the only lesson of history that mankind is unteachable?"
--Winston S. Churchill

 

[LionelHutz]

This forum is for discussion on "failures and disasters", presumably for purposes that include avoiding future failures and disasters. Prudence (remember her?) requires considering climate change in design even though there is some doubt about the likely magnitude of that change. So keep it cool, chaps. Pun intended.

There's a difference between posting factual climate change considerations and the ranting climate change stupidity with absolutely zero factual backing that is being done here. Doubly so here compared to other sites since engineers ought to know the difference.

 

[TORCHMAN]

There's a difference between posting factual climate change considerations and the ranting climate change stupidity with absolutely zero factual backing that is being done here. Doubly so here compared to other sites since engineers ought to know the difference.

I don't have a dog in this fight. Just do your best to follow Eng-Tips Posting Policies such as no Arguing in an Unprofessional Manner and no Irritating Other Members. We can agree and disagree, but using inflammatory language like "pathetic" and "stupidity" won't help.

A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still!

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Seems pretty conclusive to me.

 

[LionelHutz]

Unprofessional Manner

How is posting completely fabricated climate change claims being professional?

Irritating Other Members

What exactly do you think the non-stop sensationalistic hand wringing speculating about how bad climate change has become is doing to other members?

 

[WesternJeb]

You have no clue how old the structures are that got damaged or how well they were constructed or what historic weather has happened there, yet you're making stupid claims that the structures were 100's of years old and would have survived 100's of more years if it wasn't for climate change. You're posts are nothing but complete made up BS to rant on about climate change.

I believe in Climate change, but I am going to have to agree with LionelHutz here. There is no context to the construction type or age of any building. Only assumptions being made. There have been an innumerable amount of civilizations being wiped out due to crazy weather events throughout history. Due to the interwebs, we just hear about all of them all the time. A little bias is happening for climate change due to the influx of information due to modern media and events like this.

Nevertheless, the assumptions made about the structures being so old is abstract as stating they are no longer usable due to climate change.

 

[dik]

I don't make this stuff up... it's happening. My real concern is that this is just the beginning of something that could be a lot worse.

"The rapid intensification Hurricane Otis underwent in the hours before it slammed into southern Mexico is a symptom of the human-caused climate crisis, scientists say – and one that is becoming more frequent. When it happens right before landfall, as it did with Otis, it can catch coastal communities by surprise with little time to prepare.

The hurricane’s intensification was among the fastest forecasters have ever seen: its top-end windspeed increased by 115 mph in 24 hours. Only one other storm, Hurricane Patricia in 2015, exceeded Otis’ rapid intensification in East Pacific records, with a 120-mph increase in 24 hours.

The term rapid intensification refers to when a storm’s winds strengthen rapidly over a short amount of time. Scientists have defined it as a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less, and it generally requires significant ocean heat. The National Hurricane Center said Otis strengthened so fast on Tuesday that it had “explosively intensified.”

Otis “took full advantage of a warm patch of ocean” that was roughly 88 degrees Fahrenheit, said Brian McNoldy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami – more than enough ocean heat to fuel a monster storm."

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[PMR06]

I just hope they equip Acapulco with only electric stoves so this never happens to them again. Ever.

 

[LionelHutz]

You have proof older historic type structures were damaged beyond repair, or does using "possibly" and "may have" absolve you of needing it?

I don't know how old the structures are, but those standing have survived for possibly a few hundred years, and if it weren't for climate change, may have survived another few hundred... In spite of code provisions (or lack thereof), they have survived because they were adequately constructed for the weather they were exposed to in past.

It would be interesting to see how some of the older buildings survived, but there doesn't seem to be much of any information available. I don't see any structures in the videos that I would want to claim are "possibly" a few hundred years old.

Modern tracking and categorizing methods for hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific started in the late 60's or early 70's and there are only sparse records on storms occurring before the 1900's. So, I find it hard to believe any claims about this being a 1000 year storm, since no-one actually knows if it is or not. On top of that, don't forget that statistically two 1000 year storms could occur in the same year.

 

[JLNJ]

Mexican codes are somewhere between sparse and non-existent, so one should expect a lot of damage under high-wind conditions. Most places (Mexico City being the exception) don't have a code to design to - at least not in the way we normally think of it. From what I have witnessed, you borrow some "best practices" from other countries, use what you can from the info available from the national electric utility, rely heavily on the experience of your "engineer", add a heavy dash of local customs and builder preferences, and pass it by the Perito on a stack of Benjamins. There is no system of Professional/Structural Engineer or Architect registration other than the honor system.

It's a wonder there aren't MORE failures.

 

[TugboatEng]

On top of that, don't forget that statistically two 1000 year storms could should occur in the same year.

Severe weather tends to cluster because the conditions that cause it don't suddenly go away when the first storm is gone.

 

[mbullism]

The arrogance necessary to assume we have any real understanding of a butterfly wing in africa being the impetus for a category 5 storm in Mexico is not too far removed from any exercise purporting to prove the existence of heaven and hell... there has been weather and climate change for a whole lot longer than we've taken to be able to develop the predictive skill level that can't even see a TS rage into a cat 5 in hours... Observations taken over a couple hundred years to claim to understand processes that have been constantly changing over eons, and the hubris to explain it all as "fact"... Yes, we're all doomed, but it won't be the weather-

Analog spoken here...

 

[Reverse_Bias]

Fires, floods, hurricanes, and brutal heatwaves on every continent making populated places unlivable. It's becoming clear that the day when we can no longer hide in our air conditioned living rooms and pretend climate change isn't a big deal is fast approaching. Engineers are the ones who will have to come up with solutions to reduce emission and defend against mother nature on steroids.

 

[TugboatEng]

What populated place has become unlivable? Nothing is clear. Everything you have said is a total fabrication.