Boeing 737 Max8 Aircraft Crashes and Investigations [Part 7] 16

[Sparweb]

This post is the continuation from this series of previous threads:

thread815-445840
thread815-450258
thread815-452000
thread815-454283
thread815-457125
thread815-461989

This topic is broken into multiple threads due to the length to be scrolled, and images to load, creating long load times for some users and devices.
If you are NEW to this discussion, please read the above threads prior to posting, to avoid rehashing old discussions.

Thank you everyone for your interest! I have learned a lot from the discussion, too.

Some key references:
Ethiopian CAA preliminary report (Link is now broken. See PDF download below, 3 MB)

Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee preliminary report

A Boeing 737 Technical Site

Washington Post: When Will Boeing 737 Max Fly Again and More Questions

BBC: Boeing to temporarily halt 737 Max production in January

www.sparweb.ca

 

[hpaircraft]

...Boeing should have designed an all new aircraft. But mgmt chose not to so here they are with this mess.

It was more their clients than management who pushed for a warmed-over 737. The airlines didn't want to stock an entirely new set of spares and retrain all their pilots and technicians.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Hpaircraft is correct.

 

[1503-44]

Seriously? Blaming the clients?

There is only one party at fault and it's not the gov. Boeing got where they are because they abused regulations and procedures and the years of previous trust they had built up that opened the path that led them to these result. Its letting them get away with it that is squarely on GOV shoulders, but you really can't say much more about that. The rooster is roosting right where it should be. They rebuilt Frankenstein and all the parts don't add up at all.

Educating clients is one of the hardest things an engineer has to do, but it needs to be done, certainly more times than I'd like. I've had to draw lines in the sand and I lost a few battles, but I won the war so far.

 

[hpaircraft]

...There is only one party at fault and it's not the gov...

Oh, please spare us the monochrome. There is plenty of blame to go around.

Boeing came up with an entire family of airframes designed around the latest CFD optimizations and high-tech composite construction technologies. One of them became the 787 Dreamliner. The one that was intended to replace the 737 went nowhere, because clients just didn't, and still don't, want it. What they persisted in asking for was an updated 737, and that's what Boeing made for them--just not very well.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

ax1le it is how I understand it as well.

But as hpaircraft says there is plenty of pressure coming from multiple directions pushing towards the way it went, internal and external.

The resulting system design and certification compliance though is all Boeing. The letting them get away with it and certifying an aircraft which shouldn't have been is the FAA.

ASW has over 700 and Ryan air over 300 737's. Both were expecting to expand significantly using the MAX I think Ryan was projecting 520 aircraft by 2024 in its airline group. So between the 2 of them its 25% of sales.

Ryanair want a high density model with additional emergency doors and shall we say variable Max takeoff weight. Which is a fiddle for airways charges in Europe. Basically they recertify the aircraft every time it fly's to a new max takeoff weight to reduce Airtraffic control charges. And I presume it will also want internal front steps like its NG's have. Its model has not been certified yet with the extra door.

It doesn't want to use baggage elevators either. They currently don't use airbridges either if they can get away with it.

Realistically there should have been only one reply to Southwest with its instruction to bastidise the EFIs system so its screens show analogue instruments. And its should come from the EFIS OEM, Boeing and FAA. Sex and travel.

Another stupid safety fiddle out there is not maintaining the avionics to dual FD low vis standards. Instead they make the Captain fly a manual approach in low vis using the HUD which is only fitted on the Captains side and only they can see it. So the FO doesn't get a set of certified low viz instruments to look at. Which completely defeats the whole idea of multicrew and monitoring backup. This is the system the fine is about using none certified sensors. But the fine is 24k per airframe and that's likely to be less than a years cost of dual FD low vis Autopilot maintenance.

This fiddle has been involved with a few crashes the flydubai being the main fatal one, but there are numerous incidents where things have got hairy if there has been a go-around performed. Quite why your allowed to do a single pilot CAT II/III approach using a secondary system without the primary system being compliant for the approach I have no idea.

BTW the airlines won't have learned form this and it won't stop them from trying to find every single loop hole they can to reduce costs. And when it goes wrong they will always say its not our fault they let us do it. See our ops manual was signed off by the FOI its legal.

 

[1503-44]

Thanks Alistair. Adding emergency doors is the best idea they have there.

It looks like all of that is leading to a pilotless flight deck.

I flew Ryan Air one time maybe 15 years ago. That won't happen again.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Its not to be honest because the only reason why they want to do it to ram more people inside it.

They won't be fitting more toilets.

They won't be upgrading the air handling system for the increased numbers.

They will use a load of fit sporty types and pay them a huge bonus if they succeed to do the emergency evacuation test emptying the aircraft in under 90 seconds with 50% of the doors inop.

There will be broken arms and legs and also countless numbers of skin abrasions.

They have been saying pilotless cockpit since I was 10 years old 38 years ago. And I don't expect to see it in my lifetime. The aircraft technical side is one thing. Mother nature is another. The fitting in with everyone else up there is yet another detail. We have driverless trains and they are relatively simple, but they are still not main stream.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

this isn't the final report but an interim report because they have to produce something inside a year.

Its a bit of a weird interim report to be honest because it has a lot more stuff in it than is normal for one of these.


Haven't read it properly yet so will comment on the content later

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/6801178/ET-302-Interim-Investigation-Report-March-9-2020.pdf

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Right it stinks.....

No CVR,

No training records.

No human factors.

Nothing about the fitting of the Sensor and the technician.

The control forces though are interesting and show a surprisingly small window when you can trim manually.


I hope that they have just copied and paste parts of the full report and those sections are in the final report. If they are missing its pretty much a whitewash to deflect away from Ethiopia's regulator and the airlines failures. Which of course will have completely the opposite effect internationally.

 

[LittleInch]

A couple of things which may be in earlier threads which I had forgotten:

1) The MCAS operated on the master FCC. This is not affected by the flight director switches and just alternates without any apparent ability to know which one is active or any means to switch to the alternate FCC. So a bit like the radio alt error in Amsterdam, the pilots had no real idea that using the other FCC for autopilot didn't stop the other one commanding other parts of the plane using duff info. By this simple switch to make all flight control run through the other FCC once they realised the captains one was going haywire could have stopped all this. I wonder if they will add this or is this not a "done thing"?

2) The feel force on the stick uses the AoA input to provide force and close to stall this force increases (doubles). The ET pilots were trying to hold nearly 50kg between them just to climb slowly / stay level. They did this for 5 minutes.

So yes there's not much if anything on those issues but quite a lot on the design of the airplane. They also piggybacked onto the NTSB recomendation for safety assessments.

I do think though that the current Boeing CEO essentially saying US pilots wouldn't have crashed is rather rich. If you sell aircraft to non US operators then you need to make your aircraft capable of being flown by non US pilots.

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

I think the none US pilot stuff has been blown out the water when they put the FAA boss in the sim and then followed it up with a cross section of 737 drivers from around the world but mostly from the USA.

Apparently from pub chat its was a colossal screw up of an exercise. Boeing were all in favour of it in the beginning, thinking it would prove that home grown would conclusively prove that it was a issue with foreign training and standards. But it was both barrels of a shotgun through the feet exercise. hence it was reported having happened but then never mentioned again by Boeing.

There was apparently no difference between the pilot groups. The majority though failed to complete the exercises using the Boeing documented procedures. They pretty much made it up as they went along, which to be honest isn't that unusual in the sim. If the procedures are designed sensibly then airmanship and logic should provide 95% of the procedure without even looking at the QRH. Nobody crashed but there was some rather sporty recovery's which required the sim to be "maintained" afterwards. Which usually means there has been colossal ram switches of direction and movement and the sweat box has gone in a sulk through over heating or just bits breaking. Which is usually an indication that the plane was out of control and luck played a huge part in the not crashing.

Hence the reason I believe the FAA boss is saying he will personally fly the machine after doing the required training. And also the reason why they are not getting any exceptions.

The media spin machine is kicking in again though over the wiring loom issues and the same people who were saying it was all the pilots fault are shouting and screaming that if the wires need to be moved then the NG needs grounded as well. And if the NG can continue flying then the MAX doesn't need its wiring looms changed. I don't think they have a hope in hell of changing the decision though because the FAA would have to go it alone then, as the other regulators won't accept it.

There is also talk of a MCAS activation warning light and also a STS activation light. Which should be in theory be simple with a change in software and an icon on the EFIS. But that would then require the software to be DAL A which it isn't. And MACS is definitely considered catastrophic so even just a warning light needs redundancy so it can't just be hung off a relay with a software trigger, so they will have to come up with 2-3 different ways the warning can be triggered. As you can imagine Boeing is dead against such a requirement but I suspect it will happen.

 

[Tomfh]

I do think though that the current Boeing CEO essentially saying US pilots wouldn't have crashed is rather rich.

Are they still pushing that user error argument? Sheesh...

 

[waross]

That may indicate which orifice his head has been lodged in for the last 6 or 8 months.
On another note, remember the gas explosions in Massachusetts?

"BOSTON (AP) — A utility company will pay the largest criminal fine ever imposed for breaking a federal pipeline safety law — $53 million — and plead guilty to causing a series of natural gas explosions in Massachusetts that killed one person and damaged dozens of homes, federal officials said Wednesday.

Columbia Gas of Massachusetts has agreed to plead guilty to violating the Pipeline Safety Act and pay the fine to resolve a federal investigation into the explosions that rocked three communities in the Merrimack Valley, north of Boston, in September 2018.

"Today’s settlement is a sobering reminder that if you decide to put profits before public safety, you will pay the consequences," FBI Agent Joseph Bonavolonta said.

The company said in an emailed statement that it takes full responsibility for the disaster.

“Today’s resolution with the U.S. Attorney’s Office is an important part of addressing the impact," the company wrote. “Our focus remains on enhancing safety, regaining the trust of our customers and ensuring that quality service is delivered.”

The company's parent, Merrillville, Indiana-based NiSource Inc., has also agreed to try to sell the company and cease any gas pipeline and distribution activities in Massachusetts, according to court documents. Any profit from the sale of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts will be handed over to the federal government.
I doubt that the FBI will be as tough on Boeing.

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

 

[Lou Scannon]

AH, you were overdue for a star and I loved "both barrels of a shotgun through the feet exercise"!

"Schiefgehen wird, was schiefgehen kann" - das Murphygesetz

 

[LittleInch]

Are they still pushing that user error argument? Sheesh...

Seems like it to me. The arrogance seeps through.

I think they made more than one mistake as well.

From the NYT articles with the new CEO linked above by sparweb.

"When designing the Max, the company made a “fatal mistake” by assuming pilots would immediately counteract a failure of new software on the plane that played a role in the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines accidents. But he implied that the pilots from Indonesia and Ethiopia, “where pilots don’t have anywhere near the experience that they have here in the U.S.,” were part of the problem, too.

Asked whether he believed American pilots would have been able to handle a malfunction of the software, Mr. Calhoun asked to speak off the record. The New York Times declined to do so.

“Forget it,” Mr. Calhoun then said. “You can guess the answer.” "




Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Watch this space over the next few weeks. I suspect Boeing maybe loosing up to 20% of its orders for the MAX due to airlines going bust...

SpiceJet is looking dodgy and Jet airways it only a matter of time now. Between them they have over 400 airframes ordered. Which is 8% of the total orders.



And airbus will be getting a fair few orders evaporate as well.

 

[Eufalconimorph]

And of course if Airbus's backlog gets smaller due to out-of-business airlines the remaining airlines with Boeing orders would more easily be able to cancel & order from Airbus.

 

[Tomfh]

But he implied that the pilots from Indonesia and Ethiopia, “where pilots don’t have anywhere near the experience that they have here in the U.S.,” were part of the problem, too.

Amazing. First he comes out swinging at Muilenberg for producing a poor quality plane, and now he's blaming the pilots for crashing the plane.[pre][/pre]

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

There has been absolutely nothing changed about the finger pointing from the day the lion air crashed.

Your talking about half a century of standard response to any crash. In fact this is pretty much the first time its failed to work blaming the pilots since the Comet.

The only other time it hasn't happened was with the Concorde and that was because the OEM wanted to kill it off and stop it flying. And it was the pilots/airfrances fault in that case.

Even once they get this Frankenstein beast back into the air there will still opinion circulated that the new revised and legal aircraft is not as good as the original by Boeing. And the changes have ruined it.

The only thing that quiet a few care about is the Boeing stock price and the hit this has caused to their pensions. The people being killed they have zero interest in.

Anyway this corona virus is going to hit the entire industry harder than 9/11 and its going to last longer as well.

Buckle up, its going to be a long bumpy ride.

Just after posting this I open up a news feed and see the USA has banned all travel from Europe but with exemptions from the UK. Right next to it is an article that Tom Hanks and his wife have it. Talk about shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted.

And they are talking about unpaid leave and redundancy's at work for me.... lets see what happens.

 

[Sparweb]

I never know if I sound like an apologist when I say this stuff...

I seriously doubt that the stick-and-rudder skill of the average pilot has actually improved over the last 4 decades. Probably the opposite. But that's the kind of skill needed to (a) handle the original 737's in the '60's, and (b) react quickly when the automatic stab trim goes haywire, and (c) distrust the electronics deeply enough to even consider the possibility that the computer may have lost its mind.

Also don't forget what is the cause of 75% of all air accidents - the pilots. Not throwing any of the valuable members of this forum under the 'bus, so to speak, but they are humans and thus can make mistakes. The statistics themselves are hard to trust - they are based on complicated scenarios that aren't usually repeatable, but quite often a human error comes up. Just the other day a preliminary accident report crossed my news feed about a pilot and co-pilot so completely out of sync with each other that one advanced the throttle while looking down at his checklist while the other was trying to pull them back because he was looking out the window seeing that they were drifting off the centerline of the runway. The end result was they both got 1/2 of their wish, and the plane spun into a snowbank with one engine at idle and the other nearly full power. This kind of tomfoolery happens much more often than it should.

http://www.sparweb.ca