China's Tiangong-1 space station: Perhaps not a disaster yet, but keep looking-up just in case... 9

[JohnRBaker]

China's Tiangong-1 space station will crash to Earth within weeks

Experts say it is impossible to plot where module will re-enter the atmosphere, but the chance is higher in parts of Europe, US, Australia and New Zealand

https://www.theguardian.com/science...pace-station-will-crash-to-earth-within-weeks

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
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[JohnRBaker]

A friend of mine (and fellow MTU graduate), who used to be in charge of the CIA's spy satellite program (at least the building and launching of them), said that a bunch of his fellow, and now retired, co-workers have a betting pool covering if and where debris will impact the Earth. He said they used to do this whenever one of their own 'birds' was coming down although he said that most of their's would "burn in", meaning that they had enough residual fuel on board to control when they actually re-entered the atmosphere although he says that several still ended-up 'skipping' along the top of atmosphere like a flat stone tossed into a lake, thus the betting pools.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[ornerynorsk]

"have a betting pool covering if and where debris will impact the Earth"

I'll take $50 on "if".

It is better to have enough ideas for some of them to be wrong, than to be always right by having no ideas at all.

 

[VEBill]

I'll put a dollar on: the ocean.

If I need to be more specific, then: the Pacific.

 

[3DDave]

I lay odds on "surface."

Also -

https://xkcd.com/1337/

 

[racookpe1978]

"If" What are the odds of betting against it hitting the earth?

 

[VEBill]

"...hitting the earth?"

The odds of it hitting the earth are less than 25%.
The odds of it hitting the Earth are essentially 100%.

 

[racookpe1978]

Radar images of the space station here, also a live orbital tracker.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3642715/posts

Link

Tracker link is expecting a 2 April impact.

 

[SomptingGuy]

Odds of it hitting a Flat Earther?

Steve

 

[JohnRBaker]

Here is the link to the real-time satellite tracker which is watching the Tiangong-1 space station:

http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=37820U

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[JAE]

From John's link - here's the map with the projected "crash" location - east of South America.

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[JohnRBaker]

I suspect that if we check back in a day or two, the forecast of the date and time of the POINT OF REENTRY (as opposed to the "crash location") will have changed.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[VEBill]

This far out, they should include some Error Bars, i.e. Longitude +/- 180°, Latitude +/- 43°N or S.

 

[IRstuff]

This explains why there's even more uncertainty than usual; the station is tumbling:

https://www.space.com/40089-china-space-station-tiangong-1-radar-images.html

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

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[verymadmac]

Interesting graph for, will it hit anything that matters or anybody

Link

 

[btrueblood]

As noted, the "predicted re-entry" time and impact point are still varying. Latest prediction is a bit worrisome, though I'm certain my house (shown on map) is a few degrees north of the possible impact zone.

 

[cranky108]

Concerned about your house? Did you drive to work this morning?

Besides, if part of this thing landed in my yard, I believe it would be like winning the lottery. Who wants to buy a used Chinese space station?

 

[btrueblood]

I'm more interested in the possible viewing opportunity, thinking of setting up a time lapse or motion-detecting camera to record it, esp. if it comes down at night, on my side of the planet, within several hundred kilometers, and last, if I remember.

 

[VEBill]

Predictions starting to become meaningful. But still subject to small adjustments.

 

[VEBill]

Tiangong-1 comes down over South Pacific

BBC News

 

[racookpe1978]

http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=37820U

11:33 PM, Sunday night. Claims the space station is now down about 7 minutes ago: About midway between the Brazil and West African coast.