Ozone hole ? 6

[rb1957]

not really climate change but I mentioned it and then scratched away at the scab.

NASA data doesn't show any recovery to me ?



"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[rb1957]

yes, ozone hole bad, lets in high energy radiation ... bad.

I see this story unfolding as ...
1) (just possibly) land based observations in Antarctica hint that something has changed and the amount of UV at the surface has increased. Mind you we've only been there a few decades so we don't have that much history ... maybe this is "normal" (or within normal variation) ?
2) NASA satellite later confirms that there is thinning of the ozone layer.
3) Then someone (who maybe detected molecular CL in the ozone layer) develops a theory (that this thinning is caused by molecular CL).
4) Then someone links this with CFCs (ah ha ! the smoking gun).

Of course all this could be good science, I don't know enough. But if most CFCs are from refrigerant, then I'd suspect most is in the northern hemisphere and wind patterns would make it hard to get to the south pole (because of the wind patterns around the south pole, confining the cold air). It does make me wonder.

Then new research shows that molecular CL can be produced by melting sea ice, so now there's a source in the south polar region (but not a manmade one).

Now if they can show (maybe by isotopes, like they do with Carbon) that this is due to our CFCs, then that a completely different story.

I do think we are quick to blame ourselves for things (the way we mess up the planet), and maybe this was an example of the "precautionary principle" and since there were alternatives that weren't too onerous then ok, lets ban CFCs.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[TugboatEng]

That's exactly my beef with "science". It's all based on correlation lately. Computers and databases have really spoiled our current generation. They love to crunch numbers but aren't very good at quantifying causes. They can't tell us how much CFC has what effect on the ozone layer only that CFC went up during a short period when ozone went down. I like articles like the Nature one now twice linked because they correlated a loss of ozone with an increase in solar activity but at least had a cause explination by nitrogen oxides.

 

[IRstuff]

I do think we are quick to blame ourselves for things (the way we mess up the planet)

And yet, there's a huge segment, of the US population in particular, that's unwilling to blame ourselves at all. I'm not sure if you are simply ignoring the graphs I posted, but they clearly showed that there was nearly zero ozone hole over Antarctica 40 years ago, which then increased, and which plateaued after Montreal Protocol, and is now slowly drifting back down. Sure, it could be complete coincidence, but it would have to a lot of coincidences.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

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[IRstuff]

That's exactly my beef with "science". It's all based on correlation lately.

Seriously? That IS the start of the scientific process, since day 1. You find an effect, you look for a correlation with a possible cause, and you experiment to see if you can effect changes. Done and done with ozone hole.

Do you still believe that smoking doesn't cause cancers? Someone noticed that certain cancers occurred in heavy smokers (correlation). They found that the more smoking was done, the higher the rate of cancer (correlation).

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

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[TugboatEng]

Yes, correlation is the start of the process... We're only at the start when it comes to climate change. As a conservationist I believe we should be focusing on reduction of use. Reducing of CO2 by any means is not beneficial as it really causes the opposite in the short term. There is something counter-intuitive about consuming fossil fuels to fast track green energy. I simply think we need a more organic process. The fast track is purely political in its basis

FYI, smoking killed my grandmother by emphysema/stroke, she never had cancer.

 

[rb1957]

yes, i did look at your graph. it is very similar to the one I posted from NASA (yours from NOAA ?) I see the hole plateauing, not necessarily getting smaller (but ok, not getting bigger).

How long had we been using CFCs before 1980 ?

If historically there was never a hole (as evidenced by the first data) and we've been using CFCs for some time, is it odd that "all of a sudden" they start depleting the ozone layer ?

If there was no suspicion of a thinning (from ground observation) why would we go to the expense of looking ? Maybe you have more info than I on the background of the mission ?
Yes, I am going to be looking into it.

Is it possible that the thinning of the ozone is a horribly complex interaction of mechanisms, one of which may well have been us ?

Is it possible that our contribution was small ? And that most of what we've accomplished is to make refrigeration more expensive ? (to the detriment of the developing nations .... this is where a small cost can affect lives)

I have to say I don't know what science you studied. My science is based on challenge rather than consensus. Yes, science is all about repeatable experiments having consistent results. But what of sciences (or "sciences") where you can't do experiments (in the same way that you can do physics experiments in a lab) ? TBE is, I think, saying that consensus is mighty close to "group think" ... which is not a good thing for science.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[IRstuff]

is it odd that "all of a sudden" they start depleting the ozone layer ?

not all necessarily; the amount usage and when production and new installations lagged the original agreement; the car industry didn't switch refrigerant until 1995, and US didn't stop Freon production until 2020

https://www.fhairconditioning.com/articles/united-states-to-halt-freon-production-in-2020/

https://macsmobileairclimate.org/2013/09/20/a-brief-history-of-refrigerant/

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

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[Guest102023]

What Tugboateng is saying is that UCS is not as informed and authoritative as Tugboateng

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

 

[dik]

I'd concur to a large extent, but there is a growing number of other countries that are going that way. I suspect as requirements become more stringent that others will join that 'band wagon'. I'd never thought that I would see that attitude in Canada, but it's here.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

...as they say, it's not that not smoking, drinking or running around makes you live longer... life just seems much longer.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[Guest102023]

I do think we are quick to blame ourselves for things (the way we mess up the planet)

Not quick enough.



"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

 

[Guest102023]

And yet, there's a huge segment, of the US population in particular, that's unwilling to blame ourselves at all.

Lack of self-awareness and self-reflection have been identifying characteristics of Yankees for most of their history. (It happens with most imperial, martial nations.)

If that offends, I can get you caught up with some of the more egregious examples.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

 

[dik]

brims... we don't need to go there.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

What is the point of blaming? It achieves nothing. Then again, I don't think the goal is to protect the climate. It's time for Canada to do the right thing and accept climate refugees.

 

[Guest102023]

Not so easy when it is embedded in some members attitudes.

I gave what is a well recognized cause for the member’s observation. Not being a resident of empire gives me the advantage of perspective.


"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

 

[Guest102023]

I would hope these known periodic solar shocks drive more urgency to making the ozone layer more robust, rather than providing an excuse to give up ‘because nature’s impacts are bigger than human impacts’. The ‘it’s hopeless anyway’ cop out.

We probably need to acknowledge that China doesn’t give an actual eff and accept the extra burden regardless.

Full disclosure: I have a vested interest because I am genetically at higher risk for skin cancer.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

 

[dik]

Canada of my youth would have welcomed them... I'm not so sure of Canada today... It might be that a lot of these refugees may be from the US. I'm not so sure what will happen if Canada has a lot of water and arable land, and the US doesn't... that's a whole other spectre.

The goal might be to try to reduce the effects of climate change... we don't know how this 'ride' will end.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Why pick on China... our neighbours to the south don't give an actual eff, either, and they are the larger per capita producers. With their political system it will be very difficult for them to impliment any meaningful change, much more difficult than China. I think we're the world is "done like a dinner."

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[enginesrus]

Read Frank Dux book, he explains the cause of the Ozone holes.

 

[dik]

Do you have a title?

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik