Potential Disaster in the Making 10

[phamENG]

Cumbre Vieja, a volcano on La Palma in the Canaries, just erupted a couple of hours ago. National Geographic did an episode on it as part of a 'Disaster Earth' series a few years ago. Essentially, there's evidence of a massive landslide on the island a few hundred millennia ago, the likes of which would have formed a tsunami large enough to hit the east coast of the US. A recent earthquake seems to have restarted the process and formed a large fissure along the island.

Here's to hoping it doesn't move any more....

 

[dik]

Nothing can go wrong... go wrong... go wrong... go wrong... go wrong...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[itsmoked]

Not just a

tsunami large enough to hit the east coast of the US

when it hits the US east coast it's expected to be 1km tall.

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[1503-44]

It's been on the local news all day. Quite a rapid progression. Lots of pyroclastic explosions reaching 200m AGL. Cloudy with very light rain here, so we have not been able to see the smoke column yet. It is 60mi (100 km) away, but we can see La Palma, or rather its typically close cloud cover from here most every day.
Spain's volcanic institute had delineated a magma volume of 11MM m3 (a vol = 1x1 km x 11m thick) moving upwards during the last week along with 25,000 seismic events, including two 3.x yesterday and a 4.2 at 10am GMT this morning. Yesterday GPS monitoring instruments registered surface vertical displacements reaching 10cm, which increased to 15cm this morning. Finally it broke through at 15:04. Now 23:00h and it has increased to 8 lava fountains.

Everyone, apx 3000 (and their goats) have been evacuated from the local area now with no injuries. Medical staff, psychologists and vets are standing by to treat anyone in need. Several boat loads of civil guard, national police, fire and military personnel are leaving Santa Cruz, port on Tenerife tonight. The president has already arrived (at 19:00) to personally supervise the efforts.

Currently no one is predicting any danger of kicking off the infamous megatsunami that supposedly could wipe out every port city connecting to the North Atlantic, including London and Rotterdam, but I'm looking around for some high ground just in case. We're at 180m MSL here, but there are marine clay deposits from an ancient tsunami on my property from 100K yrs ago, so that might not be high enough. We can reach 1500m msl within 5km.

The Radio TV Canarias has a live stream here

https://rtvc.es

Stay tuned.

Geology of La Palma

https://academic.oup.com/petrology/article/58/6/1227/4083208

I'm putting it right about here.

 

[phamENG]

1503-44: thanks for all the info. Nice to have a local voice when things happen.

 

[1503-44]

I'm glad it's not any more local than it is right now. I was looking at some property over there in Fuente Caliente, but thought twice because that island is active. Tenerife is pretty quiet. Some micro seismic and occasional gas, but nothing more... knock wood.

I might try to fly over there and get a better look at it though, if things progress smoothly and calm down some... and it's ""safe". I've seen smokers, but never live lava flows and the fire works look pretty awesome. The reporters are saying the noise is like an A380 flying around your head.

 

[1503-44]

Lava flows are 1050°C and moving at 700m/h 0.42mph

The estimated quantity of magma within has now doubled to 20MM m3

Surface deformation is now +19cm.

Saying this may go on for several weeks.

 

[spsalso]

when it hits the US east coast it's expected to be 1km tall.

And how was that height derived?

spsalso

 

[1503-44]

This morning reports of 100 homes, some 2 story, have disappeared under lava flows 6m thick.

The location may be a bit farther south. The views in news reports have been from flat angles to the south and no aerial fotos, so it's hard to locate precisely.

 

[itsmoked]

Interesting. I have my doubts about pyroclastic flows. I watched probably 4 hours of live video thinking, "Absolutely zero pyroclastic flows of any kind". I don't even see how they could occur with a volcano of this style. Simple venting no explosions really. Not even any blasts to drive pyroclastic flows. Venting - massive freaking venting!

Amazing to see the lava rolling down the hills and wrapping around areas of street lights. Blocks with street lights bordering the destruction. Emergency vehicles were driving along the lava perimeters.

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[Pud]

No need to panic just yet:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami_qanda.sh

Politicians like to panic, they need activity. It is their substitute for achievement.

 

[1503-44]

There were some significant explosions during the first 6 hours as it opened up with 8 fountains, but now most of those have grouped into 2 main flows about 200m apart. It does appear to be high pressure flow at this time, however there are many layers of solid basalt interposed with pumice layers above and below all over these islands, so the composition can vary with time and location. There is one 300m high free standing cone a few km away from me that is composed entirely of pyroclastic pumice and "picone" ranging from solid pebble type material to solid surface-encased gas bubbles. Much is lightly stuck together and is easily worked into large building blocks that used to be used for light building construction, but it doesn't wear well. A lot of that stuff floats, yet I have also measured specific gravity's of the basaltic varieties between 2.8 and 3.2 Some of the lower density rock is multicolored and finely crystalized, whereas other, more rare ones, have larger green crystals that are worked into local gemstone jewelry. Occasional localized high mercury bearing ores are found around the high peaks, which were mined for local medicinal purposes in years past, but otherwise no significant commercial grade minerals are present.

 

[moon161]

^ I sometimes see light pumice cut into planters or footscrubbers, it does seem pretty friable.

 

[1503-44]

The volcanologists here are calling those explosions mixing straight up flows of lava with air rather substantially as pyroclastic, as opposed to lava that more or less leaks out the side of a slope with little air mixing.

I found some nice foot scrubber pumice up at around 2200m elev. Lots of small gas bubbles in a strong black matrix material. Wanted to take more, but its a national park. Just grabbed a couple, but they've lasted several years now. The lightest pumice is easily crumbled, loosely bound and white, light grey or yellowish. Nice for making light weight concrete.

 

[dik]

any sulphur content? may not be so good...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[1503-44]

1/2 way + predicted to reach the ocean at around 8pm GMT tonight.

Differential interference study indicates elevated activity began 10yrs ago.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-82292-3#ref-CR17

Still not entirely clear, but I can make out an unusual white cloud top lower in a blurred column with a more grayish background than usual issuing from from the general vicinity..

The reporters are getting peppered with 3-4mm diameter pyroclastic pebbles. A carpet of it is building up all around where they are now located about 2km WNW.

I think I heard that it's emitted around 12,000 tons of sulfur dioxide gas so far. CO2 also present. Going to make some sulfuric acid when it hits the water. Pyro-type explosions are characteristic of its high gas content.

The creator is at 1500m elevation with lava fanning out from W to NW. It is expected to contact the ocean somewhere between Playa Nuevo and Tazacorte.

Reporters (w/o hardhats) are running for the truck.

 

[Reverse_Bias]

Luckily the tsunami threat is overhyped.

The findings of Ward and Day 2001 have gained considerable attention,[19] amplified by increased concerns after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake about the hazards posed by tsunamis,[102][103][104] and in turn increased awareness of megatsunami risks and phenomena.[34] The coverage of the risk of a collapse gained criticism for exaggeration,[105] in particular the coverage in North American and English media.[106] They have triggered debate about their validity and the landslide and wave scenarios employed. Various models with different physical specifications have been used to simulate the waves induced by such a landslide.[23] Later estimates have questioned the assumptions made by Ward and Day 2001, mainly with regards to the following:[107]

The authors employed a linear tsunami model that may not properly reflect non-linear processes such as wave breaking that could reduce the height of the resulting tsunami by a factor of about 10.[108][7] Wave dispersion might also act to reduce tsunami height since the wave induced by the Ward and Day 2001 landslide behaves as an intermediate-water depth wave.[109]
The estimated speed and acceleration of the landslide may be unrealistically high for the slopes it would move on, and this inadequate to establish effective coupling between the tsunami and the landslide.[110] Later research has found evidence that sufficient speeds have been reached during collapses at other volcanoes.[111]
The landslide modelled by Ward and Day 2001 may be implausibly thick given the known volumes of Canary Islands mega-landslides, and collapses may have occurred in multiple steps rather than a single failure[112][7] or may have a smaller volume.[113] The thickness of the landslide is a particular issue, as different estimates have been obtained at various volcanoes.[114] Another issue is whether giant landslides occur as a single step failure (as argued for Hawaiian giant landslides) or multistage failures (as appears to be more common in the Canary Islands)[115] and stacking in turbidite deposits generated by landslides are a reliable indicator that these landslides occurred in piecemeal fashion.[116]

In general, many of these studies have found lower wave heights at distance than the original Ward and Day 2001 paper.[117] There are also questions about the southern limit of the width of the unstable zone,[118] about whether creep might stabilize it[119] and about whether it actually exists at all.[120]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbre_Vieja_tsunami_hazard#Criticism

 

[1503-44]

Good news.

Yeah. EVERYTHING is overhyped these days. It's all designed to distract you from your primary mission and plant someone else's idea in your head. So everybody goes around making decisions based on other's thoughts. Turn off the Facebooks, Instagram and Tweeters. Keep your thoughts your own. Keep your decisions your own.

 

[1503-44]

Plume in the sunset.
Desde mi azotea. From my rooftop.
Volcano is at 2 O'Clock, plume blowing south then SE to Africa.

 

[dik]

and there is not a lot you can do if it happens...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik