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Texas’ Big Freeze: The 2021 Power Crisis and the Lessons Learned One Year Later 34

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bimr

bimr

Civil/Environmental
Feb 25, 2003
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I just checked, the Parish event was 5/9/22, the 6 plants tripping was 5/13/22 (Friday the 13th, of course!)

That's not a good week imo. I don't blame that on any party/politician, I just like to see reliable power in my neighborhood. Texas as we know has a more fragile power system than the rest of the US by virtue of very limited interconnections outside of ERCOT (only DC ties).

=====================================
(2B)+(2B)' ?
 
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Note that not all of the Texas is isolated from the national grids. Parts of West Texas, generally the area in and around El Paso, are NOT part of ERCOT and are part of the 'Western interconnect'. Also, the Texas panhandle and some other parts of West Texas are included in the 'Eastern Interconnect':

gpp_map-electric-power-grid_ecojoz.png


John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without
 
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Rattlers are solar heated.

A black swan to a turkey is a white swan to the butcher ... and to Boeing.
 
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Here we go again...

Texas Faces Rolling Blackouts as ERCOT Warns Not to Use Major Appliances


In the excerpt below, they mention that there's "...no market solution available...". That's because most of Texas is isolated from the national grid (just look at the diagram in the post preceding this one) and so if they can't come-up with more capacity on their own, their customers are just out of luck.

At least back in the early 2000's, when California was being hit with rolling blackouts, it wasn't because we didn't have the capacity, just that people like Enron were gaming the system, forcing temporary shutdowns of generating plants in an attempt to drive-up the prices on the spot markets which they then leveraged to their advantage.

Texans have been asked to conserve power amid a heatwave on Monday as the state's power grid operator warned of potential rolling blackouts.

The state faces a "potential reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available" on Monday, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said in an operations message on its website Sunday night.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without
 
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Texas' power shortage seems to correlate with the opening of the Freeport LNG terminal. Edit: I'm seeing conflicting numbers on total generation capacity so I won't speculate on how much of the grid is tied up by the LNG terminal.
 
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I thought Freeport was mostly off line for repairs. As they are not shipping, eventually the storage capacity will fill up. Under those conditions even if on line, I would think the power price would make Freeport want to throttle back their compressors, and perhaps perform some scheduled maintenance.
 
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If you want to see this financial disaster unfold in real time, see this link. Day ahead pricing indicates tomorrow (July 12 2022) may be worse.
ERCOT Real Time Dashboards

Code: 
Jul 10, 2022 9:00:58 PM 	ERCOT issued a Watch for a projected reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available for Monday, July 11, 2022 HE 14:00 – 20:00, which causes a risk for an EEA event. 	Watch 	Active
Jul 10, 2022 8:57:53 PM 	ERCOT has issued an appeal through the public news media for voluntary energy conservation for Monday, July 11, 2022 HE 14:00 through 20:00. 	Operational Information 	Active
Jul 10, 2022 8:28:52 PM 	At 20:23, All Non-Spin has been recalled. 	Operational Information 	Active
==================================
Code: 
Date & Time 	Notice 	Type 	Status
Jul 11, 2022 12:51:13 PM 	At 12:49 approximately 663 MW of Non-Spin has been deployed, anticipated duration is through 23:59. 	Operational Information 	Active
Jul 11, 2022 8:47:10 AM 	The Daily RSASM for Monday, July 11, 2022 will not be occurring due to zero participating QSEs. 	Operational Information 	Active
Jul 11, 2022 12:21:56 AM 	No sudden loss of generation greater than 450 MW occurred on July 10, 2022. 	Operational Information 	Active
Jul 10, 2022 9:00:58 PM 	ERCOT issued a Watch for a projected reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available for Monday, July 11, 2022 HE 14:00 – 20:00, which causes a risk for an EEA event. 	Watch 	Active
Jul 10, 2022 8:57:53 PM 	ERCOT has issued an appeal through the public news media for voluntary energy conservation for Monday, July 11, 2022 HE 14:00 through 20:00. 	Operational Information 	Active
 
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"ERCOT Warns Not to Use Major Appliances"

I hope that's not ERCON-speak for AIR CONDITIONING?

A black swan to a turkey is a white swan to the butcher ... and to Boeing.
 
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While it's very different in what it's presenting and what is being empathized, this is what we get from our California grid operator:


John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without
 
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Different target audiences.

Einstein gave the same test to students every year. Why would he have done that? "Because the answers had changed."
 
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This time it is not the same people gaming the system. This time it leads back to Washington. Renewable requirements, and cutting back of fossil fuels, among other things.
I'm sure that had a similar experience from solar developers, using force Majeure for there inability to meet solar panel cost/schedule requirements, because of sanctions.

Bit Coin Miners-->"Do you want to play a game"?
 
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Except we are definitely not talking about Washington. TEXAS has favored fossil fuel development. Its the investors that favored Texas' wind. Abbott favors Bitcoin mines. Now the consumers have to pay for that one way or another, if not both.

Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."
 
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An example of the importance of the Electoral College. This is what you get when you let coastal California investment firms (always 65-75 degrees F) steer energy policy in a region they know nothing about: If you don't like the weather wait a couple of hours, Texas.

As far as I know, the Bitcoin generation encouraged by Texas is on islanded systems using flare gas.


Texas Governor Greg Abbott, among others, views Bitcoin mining as a solution to other related issues, such as taking advantage of untapped energy, including natural gas (such as surplus gas or associated gas) that would otherwise be flared or vented
Click to expand...
 
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Since the majority of Texas is NOT connected to either of the supposedly Washington-controlled grids, if they're now experiencing problems, they only have themselves to blame. If they had remained connected to the national grids, they would have at least had the opportunity to purchase additional power during emergencies. As for the investors putting all their resources into wind farms, isn't that just another example of capitalism doing what it does best. And as for Texas itself focusing on fossil fuels, again, that's just more capitalism since Texas traditionally depended on the fossil fuel industry for much of their state's tax revenue to say nothing of wages and investments in local economies. If these situations are now proving to have been less than ideal, how is it the fault of people living in another state?

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without
 
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To paraphrase, “it’s the business model, stupid”

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"
 
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Wind farms have been heavily subsidized by the federal government over recent years. This steers investment firms in that direction. Not exactly capitalism. Since the federal subsidies come from outside of Texas they may not represent the best interests of Texas.
 
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Is 'stupid' not in the wrong place? “it’s the stupid business model”

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik
 
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Tug, don't you suspect that a lot of these investors were people from Texas or that much of the capital invested in these wind farms, that this money also came from Texas businesses or Texas investors? If so, I would say that it was Texas and these Texas individuals who benefited from the federal subsidies.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
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