Things are getting better, or at least not changing, part 1 10

[GregLocock]

Arctic was warmer in summer 10000 years ago

https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00720-w

The Aarhus University conducted a study that confirms sea ice disappeared from the Arctic during the summer months during the early Holocene – 10,000 years ago.

Researchers from Aarhus University, in collaboration with Stockholm University and the United States Geological Survey, analyzed samples from the previously inaccessible region north of Greenland. The sediment samples were collected from the seabed in the Lincoln Sea. They showed that the sea ice in this region melted away during summer months around 10,000 years ago.

The research team concluded that summer sea ice melted at a time when temperatures were higher than today.

“Climate models have suggested that summer sea ice in this region will melt in the coming decades, but it’s uncertain if it will happen in 20, 30, 40 years, or more.

GL: The Holocene optimum is rarely mentioned by the CO2 catastrophists, since quite obviously if the world was warmer with low CO2 then there are other effects which are not fully understood that made it was warmer then, and could easily be why it is warmer now. Correlation is not causation and all that.





Cheers

Greg Locock


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[dik]

and another source...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/oct/31/last-time-arctic-warm-120000-years-ago

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

Some of these posts will be repeats of stuff in the weather report/catastrophist/people hater threads. Most will be data based, not models.

Decline of fatalities due to climate related causes

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[dik]

dunno... The world have improved from 1920 to 1980... yup could be a reduction. Looking at the last 50 years, may tell a different story.

"According to the agencies' Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes, from 1970 to 2019, these natural hazards accounted for 50 per cent of all disasters, 45 per cent of all reported deaths and 74 per cent of all reported economic losses.

There were more than 11,000 reported disasters attributed to these hazards globally, with just over two million deaths and $3.64 trillion in losses. More than 91 per cent of the deaths occurred in developing countries."

https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/09/1098662

"The main finding from this investigation is counterintuitive. The report found that the number of deaths associated with warm or cold temperatures actually decreased between 2001 and 2020. On average, 27,755 fewer people were dying each year due to unusually warm or cold temperatures. In other words, climate change might have actually prevented over half a million deaths in England and Wales over this period. In 2001 there were 993 climate-related deaths per 100,000 people in England and Wales. By 2019 that figure had fallen to 771."

https://www.wired.com/story/uk-climate-change-deaths/

There has been a reduction. The largest number were killed by storms... we'll have to see how this 'plays out'. Again, we are looking at a relatively short 'snapshot'. We'll see what the numbers look like in a decade, and decide if we were correct in ignoring a possible serious problem. We might be getting into the beginning of serious climate change issues.

and

https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/atlas-of-mortality

The storms could be getting more intense, and growing faster...

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

"could be "

also means "are not necessarily"

Please keep fantasy posts out of this thread dik. Data, great, unproved hypotheses, not.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[dik]

There is nothing fanciful about it... it's distinctly possible...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

No. You do not astroturf every thread with your silly fantasies. Things that may or may not happen are just scary stories for bedtime.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[Pud]

Nicely put Greg.

Politicians like to panic, they need activity. It is their substitute for achievement.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

One thing all of these "catastrophe" predictions miss is that we're aren't talking about a single event. We're talking about events building over multiple decades.

Look at New Orleans. Lots of people died in Katrina. Why did they die? How did we respond?

They died because of a hurricane storm surge that broke levees and flooded the city. Whether the hurricane was partially caused by global warming or not is irrelevant.

How did we react? The Army Core of Engineers went in and evaluated why the levees broke. They built new ones that were a lot better. We just had a hurricane (Ida in 2021 that was arguably just as severe (maybe more so). The levees held.... I don't recall hearing much about fatalities. It caused damage, of course. Sustained winds of 150 mph when over land will tend to do that. But, New Orleans survived. Right?

My point is that for a catastrophe to occur we need to have NOT adapted to the new risks. By that I mean the following:
a) In rich countries we will build BETTER building and levees and infrastructure. We will have better evacuation plans and such put in place.
b) In poor countries, the people will probably move away from areas that are prone to flooding or hurricane damage. I'm not saying they're going to move hundreds of miles away. But, they may move 3 miles inland onto higher ground.


Dik -

In response to your comment and stats about poor countries suffering worse fatalities and such from climate events. Yes, this is definitely the case. But, also remember that these countries that NEED fossil based energy the most.... Meaning that they need that cheap energy in order to build up their infrastructure and improve their standard of living. Right? If they can improve their economy and prosper, then they wouldn't be as susceptible to these storms and such. I think that we could make an argument that forcing them to stop using fossil fuels will result in GREATER deaths for their populations than if we had done nothing.

 

[dik]

and other countries that are producing excessive carbon are 'killing them off'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Are killing them off? Didn't we just agree that climate based deaths have declined substantially since we started burning fossil fuels?

 

[dik]

killing them off at a reduced rate, for the time being... better tug?

the reduced fatalities are largely a result of the advanced warning being provided.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[hokie66]

Yes, dik. That is another great example of adaptation.

 

[TugboatEng]

When you say, "for the time being" why do you think there is going to be an inflection? The chart in this thread shows the curve is still trending towards zero.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

When you say, "for the time being" why do you think there is going to be an inflection? The chart in this thread shows the curve is still trending towards zero.

That is kind of a reason why we'd expect a change from a math / probability stand point. Right? It can't go negative. It can't reach zero. So, either it follows a infinite curve towards zero (which doesn't really happen with this kind of statistic) or it will hit an inflection point.

But, it's clear that there are a lot of folks who believe this will change. They believe that climate change will have catastrophic effects. My tendency is to say that there will be some pretty bad individual catastrophes. But, that we will adapt and move forward with each one. Honestly, it makes sense to me that as the numbers have decreased overall, we're going to see lots of individual bumps on the curve from any major event that we learn from which leads to change.

 

[dik]

I don't know tug, but I suspect strongly that there's going to be a dramatic upturn in the next decade or so. I don't know this for sure.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Mass extinctions are also a form of evolution... My one brother told me about 30 years ago, when it came to mutations that if it weren't for these, we'd all look alike...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Mutations are random and rarely successful. Well, they do introduce new genetic material into the genome, I believe that inter-breeding has a lot more to do with diversity of appearance than mutations themselves. After all, we share 98% of our genome with a pig, right?

We see this a lot in agriculture where plants are bred to have specific or new features. These are not mutations.

 

[rb1957]

maybe that explains why lots of us look and behave like pigs ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[TugboatEng]

Dik's was an interesting comment. It really has me thinking. I did foster 5 cats recently. Two looked similar and the rest were unique. In the first picture are 4 and the next picture is the sister of the similar looking boy. I believe cat litters can have multiple fathers simultaneously. None of these cats were mutants but almost all look different.