Boeing 737 Max8 Aircraft Crashes and Investigations [Part 7] 16

[Sparweb]

This post is the continuation from this series of previous threads:

thread815-445840
thread815-450258
thread815-452000
thread815-454283
thread815-457125
thread815-461989

This topic is broken into multiple threads due to the length to be scrolled, and images to load, creating long load times for some users and devices.
If you are NEW to this discussion, please read the above threads prior to posting, to avoid rehashing old discussions.

Thank you everyone for your interest! I have learned a lot from the discussion, too.

Some key references:
Ethiopian CAA preliminary report (Link is now broken. See PDF download below, 3 MB)

Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee preliminary report

A Boeing 737 Technical Site

Washington Post: When Will Boeing 737 Max Fly Again and More Questions

BBC: Boeing to temporarily halt 737 Max production in January

www.sparweb.ca

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

See that as a mechie is just alien. I stick my ground spikes in and over bond everything to death....

stick loads of RCB's in and just deal with them kicking out when a neutral touches an earth when you doing stuff.

I really don't have a clue what I am doing apart from rule of thumbs and common sense of check every thing before I touch it.

Although getting a belt through your mouth V getting one through your reproductive organs I will not entertain the pro's/cons of.

 

[Lou Scannon]

AH, it sounds like BIL unwittingly prepared an inductive spark system experiment with the gap localized to the, ahem, fanny washer

"Schiefgehen wird, was schiefgehen kann" - das Murphygesetz

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Thinking about what Bill said... there is electric UFH DIY installed and the RE bar wasn't bonded he say's....


Anyway back to the MAX.. Moss lake shutdown for maint on Max's and Puget Sound factory shut down for production.

 

[Eufalconimorph]

With all the shutdowns due to SARS-CoV-2 any hope Boeing had of maintaining schedule is definitely shot. Suppliers will be shut down as non-essential. The US airline industry is collapsing (and begging for bailouts), tourism is down worldwide, so a lot more orders will be cancelled. Regulators have no reason to hurry, and many won't even be able to send people to inspect things due to lockdowns.

 

[LittleInch]

Could this virus kill the 737 max?

Airlines are going to be dropping like flies and could take 5+ years to recover.

I suspect there will be a lot of spare cheap aircraft around and I see nothing but cancelled orders.



Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

 

[Cool_Controls]

I doubt the suppliers will be shutdown (although they may choose to on there own). Based on my states listing of essential business nearly everybody qualifies including tobacco manufacturers. Look for yourself Essential Businesses

 

[IRstuff]

Yup, gotta chop trees to make the toilet paper ;-)

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

[Spartan5]

Boeing was mentioned repeatedly in yesterday's (or the day before, they are running together) COVID presser as it pertained to the stimulus package. Boeing was called out as a very big part of our economy and have fallen under some tough times lately so it is important that they get bailed out. Just when it looked like MCAS was going to auger them they've found some parachutes after all.

 

[waross]

Too big to fail? Does that really mean too well connected to fail?
If COVID 19 leads to greatly reduced passengers world wide and failing airlines, there should be a lot of openings on the Airbus waiting list.

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

 

[RVAmeche]

Boeing should pull itself up with it's bootstraps like the American populace will have to.

 

[waross]

BOSTON – A gas company accepted responsibility Wednesday for a deadly series of natural gas explosions that rocked Massachusetts in September 2018, agreeing to pay a $53 million fine and end its operations in the state in a plea deal reached with the U.S. Justice Department.

Columbia Gas Co. of Massachusetts (CMA) will plead guilty to felony charges for not meeting safety standards that led to the catastrophic explosions. U.S. Attorney Andrew Lelling said the criminal fine is "by far" the largest under the 1960s-era federal Pipeline Safety Act.

The parent company of CMA, Indiana-based NiSource Inc., also must sell its subsidiary, stop doing business in Massachusetts and pay the U.S. government any profits made from the company's sale. Until it is sold, a third-party monitor will regularly inspect CMA, which will be on a three-year probation. As part of the deal, prosecutors will not pursue charges against NiSource for the conduct of CMA.

There was one death.

Extrapolating that for Boeing would be a little over 18 billion in fines.
New owners? That may be what it takes to change the company culture.
Any profit for the sale to be forfeit to the government. Better than going to jail.

Will it happen?
Well that's the difference between big and little in "equal" America.
What ever happened to the concept of "Common Law".

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Give it 4 weeks and see what happens.

The virus is firmly established in all politician groups in Europe. They have been dropping like flies with it.
There was multiple visits by EASA before the European lockdowns.

I suspect the Boeing shutdown was a tad too late and with all the meetings that will be involved getting the MAX flying again there will be a sudden onset of people dropping out for 2-3 weeks getting over the virus.

By people on my FB with it its not something you can battle on with. Your pretty much totalled for 5-6 days with headache and fever and then the coughing lasts a lot longer. Thankfully nobody as yet has needed to go to hospital. The ones that have it are separate to each other. They all can pin point where they got it. Funerals, meetings, and ski trips.

With the amount of international meetings involved with the Max I would be very surprised if Boeing doesn't know its got a major issue looming anyway. The FAA will have it as well.

And all the lobbying that Boeing does its almost a perfect vector for injecting it into pretty much every corner of the aviation establishment in the USA.

The news in Europe is focusing on the likely hood of the USA opening up for business again soon. There are several by lines noting the ages of the political leadership of the various offices in the US. Which a rather large percentage is in the 8% fatality zone. With a substantial number being in the 15% zone.

So give it 4 weeks the picture might have changed significantly. The MAX will fly again at some point. I pretty sure though now it won't be until 2021.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Small update

2 more issues with software have come up with the MAX.

1 is to do with the cosmic radiation causing pitch inputs again both up and down. Which is a pie ion the sky test and very unlikely to happen in real life

And the second one is the autopilot getting kicked out during low vis approaches while doing CAT II and III. Due to the FC's loosing sync and the fail safe is dump the AP.

Test flights unsurprisingly are not going to happen for a couple of months so plenty of time to deal with the new issues.

 

[waross]

Maybe it's time to take another look at the email from Canada's regulator which stated that MCAS had to go.
When it was thought that a few lines of code and a few weeks would get the plane flying, the odds were dramatically against repositioning the engines.
Now, in hindsight, with the amount of money spent and lost, the amount of time spent and lost, and the amount of reputation and public trust lost, the odds have shifted dramatically.
Yes, the wings may have to be redesigned. Doesn't Boeing do that sort of thing? (overlooking the pickle fork issues)
Wasn't that done in any event to handle the increased forces of the repositioned engines? I hope so.
Yes, the landing gear may have to be redesigned. Doesn't Boeing do that sort of thing? Didn't they do it for the Max 10?
Is Boeing still able to design planes or have the best engineers left the Boeing culture and found rewarding work elsewhere?

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

There has been that many additional issues come up in the mean time that MCAS is more than likely on the easier end of the scale to deal with now.

Shifting the engines isn't going to solve the wiring issues, the cockpit alerting system and checklists, the inability to manually trim the plane outside a small speed window from neutral trim etc etc etc


There is loads of other issues that are now stopping the recertification. The thing should never have been in the air in the first place.

 

[LittleInch]

The thing should never have been in the air in the first place.

Maybe not but you can see how there was nothing really big enough to stop it (Once they managed to convince themselves that the MCAS failure wasn't "catastrophic"). Unfortunately for Boeing that analysis has proved to be false . Everything else could be magicked away by the grandfather rules and the excuse - well the 737NG doesn't fall out of the sky on a regular basis - would have been well worn.

But once something happens like this, you need to sort out all the other issues which arise as that excuse just won't wash anymore.

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

There is stuff turning up like the wiring looms which was completely outside certification standards and couldn't be grandfathered through.

And your right there was nothing to stop it after they managed to blindside the FAA into certifying it until it killed so many people.

But now its getting certified properly by multiple regulators because the FAA screwed it up.

 

[dik]

I think that's going to be a much bigger issue... everyone will be looking at it with a fine toothed comb. Also FAA reputation has taken a big hit with agencies that matter. The FAA may never recover their original reputation.

Dik

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Sorting out the regulators will only occur after the MAX is flying again.

And while its happening there will be several changes to the cockpit alerting system setup as well. Zero grandfathering ability's allowed like the wiring loom reg.

But to be fair to Boeing they seem to be declaring issues instead of them being found. I suspect this is due to the fact they know that the flight envelope is in an extremely perilous situation of being outside regulations which the MCAS was installed to fix. We shall see what happens.

Boeing have a ridiculous amount of work in progress.

The space side of things they are doing another unmanned test flight.

And the mil tanker contract is just a mess. They have just had to start completely re designing the boom control system. And face the US military having to lease in the oppositions product to cover the gap and back charging them. Which will more than likely cost the same as the original contract which they got cancelled.

And all this while trying to keep everyone virus free.

 

[davefitz]

If Boeing gets the $17 billion USD "loan" as a coronavirus bailout, it will set a precedent and will effectively mean that they are "too big to fail" . Certainly one can justify that national security requires their military arm be subsidized, but in reality the "loan" is bailing out their missteps in the 737 Max commercial debacle. They are then effectively vaccinated against future financial failure as they can always play the same "get out of jail free" card by crying "national security". This will likely be seen as a transparent government support to a commercial entity and thus disqualify them from bidding in the european market. This might explain why they have not chosen to split into 2 divisions ( military vs commercial) , as that split would void their ability to play the same national security card after the next debacle occurs.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick