Tesla "autopilot" disengages shortly before impact 9

[MartinLe]

https://fortune.com/2022/06/10/elon...on-traffic-safety-autonomous-fsd-fatal-probe/

"On Thursday, NHTSA said it had discovered in 16 separate instances when this occurred that Autopilot “aborted vehicle control less than one second prior to the first impact,” suggesting the driver was not prepared to assume full control over the vehicle."

Where I a legislating body, I would very much demand that safety critical software needs to be as transparent as any other safety feature. Which would limit "AI"/machine learning applications in these roles.

 

[TugboatEng]

I think a comparison per mile would be more meaningful considering Teslas have long had the longest range and therefore accumulated the most miles.

Remember, Musk has drawn the ire of the media in recent times so we are going to be assaulted by negative press for the time being. Be extra critical of any data presented in these stories.

 

[dik]

I'm not sure, tug. Most accidents, I understand, happen with short trips, close to home. The number of trips may be a better indicator.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

I see that 69% of accidents happen within 10 miles of home and the average commute in the USA is 41 miles round trip. That means half of the drive is within 10 miles of home so 69% doesn't seem so astounding. I wonder if more accidents happen in the evening than morning when the driver is more tired? That would certainly bias things a bit closer to home.

Anyways, I'm not a fan of headline statistics. They are intended to be inflammatory, not informative.

 

[dik]

concur... I didn't have numbers on accidents; I just seem to recall the proximity to home and the short trips. Thanks...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[spsalso]

"I wonder if more accidents happen in the evening than morning when the driver is more tired?"

I'm not sure I'd use the word "tired". But it's something.

I live in a house that overlooks the freeway that comes out of the Caldecott tunnel, heading towards San Francisco.

Sirens and blue lights are VERY rare in the morning. They are NOT rare at all in the late afternoon/evening.

WHY there is a difference has interested me ever since I noticed it.

Of especial interest is the morning commute is downhill, which should be more dangerous. I think.



spsalso

 

[JohnRBaker]

Yea, it's like the guy who read that most accidents occur within 10 miles of home, so he moved.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
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[TugboatEng]

Spalso, since you're familiar with the area, I used to commute from Vallejo to Oakland. I had more than once made an unintentional lane change due to dozing off on the return trip. In fact, it happened so many times in the same area, between San Pablo Dam Rd and El Portal I started to anticipate it. I bought a motorcycle to commute on and that solved it.

Man, I'd hate to work within 10 miles of home. That would be like 100% accident rate.

 

[JohnRBaker]

I live in a house that overlooks the freeway that comes out of the Caldecott tunnel, heading towards San Francisco.

Sirens and blue lights are VERY rare in the morning. They are NOT rare at all in the late afternoon/evening.

Where's the position of the Sun, relative to the flow of traffic, in the morning versus in the late afternoon/evening? Based on what you said about "traffic coming OUT of the Caldecott tunnel, heading towards San Francisco", after looking at a map of the area, I would bet that there's virtually NO Sun shining in the eyes of the drivers going in either direction in the Morning. However, in the late afternoon/evening, the traffic moving toward San Francisco would be going directly into the Sun.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
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[TugboatEng]

Fortunately, traffic doesn't move fast enough around here for the sun to be an issue.

 

[spsalso]

Mr. Baker,

The accidents happen to the traffic returning home. Thus the sun would be behind them. In both directions.

Traffic speeds on this stretch during commute hours do tend to vary, but it seems they are usually faster in the morning commute.

spsalso

 

[btrueblood]

"Man, I'd hate to work within 10 miles of home. That would be like 100% accident rate."

LOL. I live 7 miles from where I have worked for the last 20 years. No accidents...yet (sh@t, I may have just jinxed myself). Other than inclement weather (ice and snow mostly) I'd say the biggest contributor to accidents around here is distracted driving, mostly cellphones. Can't count the number of people I see "driving" while looking at their laps. I usually give them a wide berth.

 

[TugboatEng]

On highway 80 in the SF Bay Area, the accidents are almost exclusively someone plowing in to the back of another car. Highway 24 and 580 are a little different. They're favored by our criminal element as a conduit between Pittsburgh/Stockton to San Francisco. They get lots of high speed roll-over type wrecks.

 

[IRstuff]

I see that 69% of accidents happen within 10 miles of home and the average commute in the USA is 41 miles round trip.

You've combined two statistics that aren't necessarily related; 69% of ALL accidents, not necessarily only commute accidents. I've never had an accident during a commute; every accident I ever had was either a side trip or non-commute related.

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[IRstuff]

Just because Tesla has statistics to tout doesn't mean their stuff is necessarily good; most of the reported accidents and non-accidents are failures of the "Autopilot" to behave correctly or failure of the car to enforce driver attention, as is required by the level of automation in the car. Just like 737 Max didn't have a problem until two planes fell out of the sky for the same cause.

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[JohnRBaker]

As a sort of experiment, since I've been driving the same route everyday, going to and from the radiation oncology facility, I couldn't help but notice all of the Teslas that I was seeing on the road. My drive covers approximately seven miles, in each direction, and it's all surface streets, through a mix of residential, retail and commercial areas. On most days, it takes me 20 minutes or less to cover those seven miles.

So today I decided to count how many Teslas I saw out on the street actually moving. I didn't count any that I saw parked at the medical facility nor in the various parking lots that I passed by, I only counted Teslas that either passed me, or I passed them, or I saw pass in the opposite lane or I saw cross in front of me as I waited at a light. Now I ended-up only counting on the way home, but it felt like about that same amount as I would have seen on the way to the medical facility. So my count of Teslas actual moving on the street during my seven mile, less than 20 minute drive, was 61 vehicles. Now as an engineer and one who has been following this and other threads that we've had here on E-Tips discussing various issues related to Tesla's 'auto pilot', you can't help but wonder how many of these Teslas were being operated in their 'automatic' mode. Scary...

Now in the eight and half weeks that I've been making this trip each day, 14 miles round trip, I've only seen one accident:

April 2022 (Apple iPhone 7)

But from the photo, it's obviously NOT a Tesla. Now there was another car involved:

April 2022 (Apple iPhone 7)

And it wasn't a Tesla either.

I know this doesn't really add anything relevant to the thread's topic, but I still thought it might be of interest.

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[TugboatEng]

Lots of rear end damage on that car. Looks like the SUV ran in to the back of it (distracted driver). Autopilot, even a poor performing one, would likely have benefited this situation

 

[JohnRBaker]

Yes, that's what it looked like to me as well. And again, yes, if it had been my SUV and it was a stopped/slower moving vehicle, I would have at least gotten that 'Forward Collision Alert' flashing red light in front of my eyes as well as the vibrating seat. Of course, I would still have had to actually hit the brakes, unless the 'Automatic Emergency Braking' feature had taken over, which like I've noted before, I don't think I've ever experienced (and that's a good thing).

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[IRstuff]

https://www.npr.org/2022/06/15/1105...-involved-automated-tech-companies-tell-regul

Not exactly apples to apples comparison, but if it were, Tesla's accident rate is about 20 time higher than Honda's for those equipped with driver assistance systems. Now, if Tesla's accident rate were less than Honda's, THAT would be something to crow about.

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[TugboatEng]

I have been seeing this comment come up since the very first driverless cars began testing on public roads.

In most of the crashes, vehicles were struck from the rear.

Specifically that was about the WayMo cars but other manufacturers have made the same comment.

Another takeaway from that article is that Tesla is the only manufacturer who's vehicles automatically report a collision which is a likely explanation for their higher rates.

 

[JohnRBaker]

I have OnStar in my GMC and my wife has MBrace in her Mercedes, and both of these 'services' will report to their respective emergency desks if the vehicle is in an accident (I think it's triggered if the airbags are deployed) and if they fail to reach you through the onboard cellular system, they will call 911 using your last GPS location.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
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