Texas power issues. Wind farms getting iced up (Part II)... 38

[LittleInch]

To get back to the real issue in Texas, it was that the combined gas and electricity system could not meet demand regardless of price.

The extreme conditions experienced went outside the bounds of the market system and it essentially failed.

This is compounded by ERCOT not being able to or not willing to pay for standby power which is not actually generating, which is what a lot of other grid operators do. So essentially an insurance policy. Insurance policies cost money. But no insurance then in the event of failure or incident, you're on the hook for the entire cost or impact. Texas clearly have decided they don't want to pay the insurance policy premium and hence every 10 years or so will suffer a rolling black out / failure of electricity / energy supply.

Now what power source any standby generators could have used isn't clear as the gas system reduced capacity also. I don't know what entity regulates or runs the natural gas grid in Texas, but I can only imagine it works on the same basis. I'm sure I saw a report in this thread or the part 1 where some guys battled out to their shut in gas wells and hoped in a week to pay back the cost of buying them based on the natural gas price being offered for variable supply / spot market prices.

Whether Texas or ERCOT now decide to do it differently I don't know, but this is a regulated market, just with much wider bands and a "light touch" by the regulator / grid company who rely on market forces to balance the grid instead of planned capacity and back ups being paid to stand idle ready to spring into life when required maybe for one week a year.

Given the switch to a more variable, but low cost, electricity supply from solar and wind, this is causing headaches all over the world for grid operators used for decades to large reliable plants delivering fixed quantities of electricity. There is no one answer.



Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

 

[1503-44]

FacEngr,

OSHA regs speak towards operational issues, tree trimming and safety in maintenance. I didnt see any specific engineering design specs, other than how they might affect labor safety issues.

Now I'm more confused after reading HR 5146. Is there anything there related to today's requirements? They must be very busy exempting all new facilities from those requirements.

LI,
It is concerning that the grid design is seemingly not in actual control of anyone. Design and operation based primarily on price of electricity and the daily whims of gen operators does not make the least bit of engineering sense, yet that appears to be the way it is "self assembling" and then operating.

Where did you see that some were closing well heads? Not totally surprising if it turns out to be true though. "Its a free country. No law against it.", rules the west, well heads, water rights, etc. included. At least until the sheriff shows up.

 

[davefitz]

It looks as if the Texas gas producers will have a lot on their plate this year. In addition to freeze protection of producer wells, they now will also need to take action to reduce flaring. It seems likely that the costs for both of these actions wil be shared with the consumer indirectly thru some type of taxation, as the well owners are already strapped for cash and normally at the end of their lines of credit.

Modifying gas turbines to also burn oil, if not provided with that capability originally , will also be costly, and the fuel control system, combustor changes, control system changes, oil tanks, etc are not small capital items.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[1503-44]

And require space that they may not have and additional measures for tank emissions control

I think HR 5146 "exceptions" could be the order of the day. I somehow doubt that installing oil and coal burning backup for gas turbines will be the "final solution".

 

[cranky108]

So what if toilet paper at the store had went from $1 per 6 rolls to $9000 per 6 rolls, would that have changed the demand curve in the recent shortage? No, likely not.
The same for the electric and gas markets. There was just not enough being produced, for the short time demand.

Yes the electric and gas markets are intertied, because there are too few plants that can change or use other fuels, and renewables are not reliable.

If you want to untie the two, the electric producers need to use other fuels, or store natural gas on site, just like the old coal plants, did.
So energy storage, or fuel storage, and a lot of it.

I do recall one coal plant that could burn 100 tons an hour per 600 MW unit. The coal was delivered every once or twice a week. So at 100 tons per car, for maybe a 100 car train, that would be 10000 tons delivered per week, give or take. So lots of fuel storage.

Yes people in Texas use natural gas for home heating (which does not work without electric), like most of the midwestern states, but there go to backup for that is electric heat.
The $5 bundles of wood at the store is for a show fire, and never a real way to heat ones home.

 

[moon161]

If TP is $9000 I will make a bidet or research and observe any of the sanitary practices that preceded its use. This will definately be a case of elastic norms as opposed to inelastic demand. It's alright if you don't come over for dinner ;-)

 

[SnTMan]

Why I persist in taking the actual, physical newspaper

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[Fischstabchen]

LittleInch,

What makes you think that spinning and non=spinning reserves aren't compensated?


What makes you think that RRCOT doesn't have adequate reserve margin?

http://www.ercot.com/news/releases/show/219347

 

[RedSnake]

Maybe because of this.

Estimate was for this winter’s electrical load of about 67,000 megawatts.
But the shadow estimates published by ERCOT suggested about 72,000 megawatts of peak demand.
ERCOT has the ability to supply electrical capacity of about 80,000 megawatts.
ERCOT runs “light” in terms of electric system reserve capacity with reserves typically about 8%.
This compares with other US grids where targeted reserve margins are about 15 %

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Whos-To-Blame-For-The-Texas-Power-Crisis.html

https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...=ebaca1f6ce836a18a0d1d77236e85b5b&oe=60545589

Best Regard A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[Fischstabchen]

Rednake,

You are circling around the same issue over and over and trying to make it about the electrical grid. It was a natural gas problem. The load wasn't even at summer peak levels, which is what your capacity margin is benchmarked against in Texas. Even if there was more generation built, it wouldn't have changed anything because any additional generation would have been for natural gas because that is the most economic means generating electricity. That puts you at the same exact spot due to natural gas constraints.

 

[1503-44]

The difference between Capacity vs Availability.

 

[JohnRBaker]

...trying to make it about the electrical grid. It was a natural gas problem.

If that's true, then there are really only TWO solutions, either figure out how one would store enough natural gas (or a suitable alternate fuel) close to generation facilities so that they can withstand a temporary outage from the pipeline system. Barring that, it would then fall to the second solution, which would be to do what they were told to do 10 years ago, winterize the gas supply system.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[davidbeach]

So, Fischstabshen, perhaps it’s time for you to come clean - why the endless defense of an utter failure? What’s your vested stake in it?

I’ll see your silver lining and raise you two black clouds. - Protection Operations

 

[Fischstabchen]

davidbeach,

There is a gross mischaracterization of the situation by a number of people posting. First, it is the Texas Interconnect is not governed by NERC and FERC. I wish someone here would inform the TRE of this. Then, it is a deregulated electrical grid and those Texas cowboys just do whatever they feel like and have no regulations. Then it is ERCOT's fault even though they were providing winterizion training and released several warnings on the potential of this winter being cold and causing problems. Then it is deregulation even though most people in the U.S. live in deregulated regions and regulated regions in Oklahoma and Louisiana also had blackouts. Then it is people blaming deregulation and it is apparent by their post that they have no clue what it means to have a deregulated electrical system and how un-special it is for the ERCOT region to be deregulated or that all this is the result of deregulation even though the Pennsylvania region is huge on fracking and natural gas generation and is also deregulated and somehow manages to get through the winters. I am not defending the fact that winterization recommendations weren't carried out but it is ridiculous how much people not familiar with the situation feel compelled to not just comment on it but comment on it with blind certainty. You have in the renewable thread people commenting that Texas is not how to do renewables when aside from having 1 GW ramps in 2007-2008, ERCOT doesn't have the frequency regulation issues that you have in California and other regions with low inertia and high renewables. Then are comments about reliability. I have only lost power three times in the last 15 years in Houston (this cold snap and Hurricanes Ike and Harvey) and California shuts itself off during a slight breeze and the northeast messed things up so badly in 2003 that NERC was created. Yeah, the 2003 Northeast blackout was such a screw up the whole country fell under a book of regulation. What about the southwest blackout of 2011? Or people going weeks without power after Hurricane Sandy on the east coast? New York in 65 and 77? California and Enron in 2001? In addition, this was a natural gas supply issue and not even the grid itself. I believe that a lot of this is because Texas is a conservative state and is getting a lot of proxy hate. I am not even conservative but I have a hard time coming up with any other reason why so many would just dump on the state with such flimsy crap. I have been a poster on this board for 15 years and I have never seen so much flimsy crap. Where was this flimsy crap for California and the southwest in 2011? Where was this flimsy crap after a number of blackouts of the northeast?

 

[davidbeach]

NERC existed prior to 2003, since 1968 in fact. I trust that the rest of your statements are of the same caliber as the statement that NERC was created in 2003. Buh-bye.

I’ll see your silver lining and raise you two black clouds. - Protection Operations

 

[Fischstabchen]

NERC was an industry council formed in 1968. It was even named the National Electric Reliability Council. The 2003 blackout happened and The Energy Act of 2005 was passed and mandated the creation of an Electric Reliability Organization (ERO). NERC applied to FERC to be the ERO and was granted the role. NERC than changed its name to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation to reflect the fact that they no longer were this small volunteer support group and now were a regulating organization that was able to mandate practices under the threat of millions of dollars in fines. NERC as we know it today only became what it is when it became an ERO in 2006. Saying NERC started in 1968 is like saying the investment firm Berkshire Hathaway started in the 1800s as a textile company and not when Warren Buffett started using the name for his investment firm.

 

[davidbeach]

You would have served your cause far better by simply saying "oops". Now you've doubled down on the lie that NERC was created following 2003. Created was your choice of words. As any judge would tell any jury, if a witness can be determined to be untruthful about one thing, it can be safely assumed that the witness was untruthful about other things as well. NERC was not created in 2003, nor as a result of 2003. Your choice of words. All else tarred by the same brush. I don't need to dig into each and every one of the rest of that, it's all equal to NERC being created in, as a result of, 2003. Could even have said that NERC took on a stronger role, but you opted to say created, and then when shown it was clearly false you deflected.

Come clean, what's your vested interest? What ox of your's is being gored?

I’ll see your silver lining and raise you two black clouds. - Protection Operations

 

[Fischstabchen]

Saying NERC started in 1968 is like saying the investment firm Berkshire Hathaway started in the 1800s as a textile company and not when Warren Buffett started using the name for his investment firm. One is a volunteer industry group and the other is a regulating body. It isn't expanding a role but a completely different organization. Enough so that they recognized this and changed their name.

Edit: They aren't even the same NERC. It wasn't a name change but a completely new organization that was formed on March 28, 2006 and took on the acronym NERC.

 

[davidbeach]

Still haven’t said what ax you’re trying to grid... Stop diverting.

I’ll see your silver lining and raise you two black clouds. - Protection Operations

 

[Fischstabchen]

davidbeach,

You aren't interested in a real discussion if you are trying to keep score with when NERC was created and even you didn't have that right.

There are gross misrepresentations of the grid under ERCOT and I have worked in MISO, SPP, and ERCOT and they all are planned, operated, and maintained almost the exact same way.