Texas power issues. Wind farms getting iced up (Part II)... 38

[1503-44]

I was on to this not being an electrical failure since,

1503-44 (Petroleum)18 Feb 21 13:13
Gov Abbot of TX blames AOC & renewables. "Methinks the govna' doth protest too much."
Im betting he'll walk home with that rooster and this originated at the gas fields with wells offline due to low price and other operators that didn't light up the well heaters in time to prevent freeze ups. Hydrates can start appearing at low 40s°F

Since then, I have been trying to figure out how an electrical distribution system can arise, seemingly without central authority having control of deciding the location, capacity and generator type, then seemingly be operated solely by changing the price of electricity, while all other significant factors are essentially random variables in regard to system installed capacity, available capacity, electricity demand and corresponding day to day operating procedures. That is still a mystery to me. I would think it is total madness to do that with a simple A to B pipeline.

The only failure I see ERCOT and the TX PUC responsible for is thinking that the price of electricity alone would be sufficient to essentially let a large, critical system self-design, maintain balance of supply and demand and keep it operating within all constraints, especially that of an apparently expected reliability of 99.75% or more.

fischstabchen, MISO, SPP, and ERCOT, all are planned, operated, and maintained almost the exact same way.

Could you please explain more about that topic? Is it as disorganised as I think? I hope not, but it does appear to me, literally, that the monkeys are at the drawing boards, pulling the levers and throwing the dice. How do they do it?

That said, I can see some similarity in how pipelines systems at the national level manage to develope with minimal central oversight. The FERC attempts to keep unnecessary gas pipelines from being constructed and approves transportation tarriffs, but actually little else. If they determine that a pipeline project is necessary, serves the public's interests and does not unfairly restrict, or otherwise promotes fair competition, they will normally issue their approval and CFR regulations govern their design, construction and even operation to some extent. I see nothing comparable for electric systems, but I'm certainly no expert there.

 

[cranky108]

Actually most utilities were managing fine, until the northeast blackout. After that regulating authorities were demanded. Then it was demanded that utilities must purchase power by any producer, opening the way for Non-Utility Generators (NUG's). Later congress got involved and decided wind and solar needed a seat and special treatment. Then congress wanted to regulate (more) the coal industry.
So now we have the uneven and messey playing field we have today.

No fuel or energy storage, and just in time fuel delivery (or just a few days late).

So the coal industry is going to die, and we are shouting about how to replace it (in the dark, in Texas).

This is what happens when government thinks they know best for us.

 

[RedSnake]

You are circling around the same issue over and over and trying to make it about the electrical grid. It was a natural gas problem. quote]

First of all I am NOT circling .
I am trying my best to make an straight line, which is totally impossible since everybody else is jumping between different subjects like high prices, Governor faults, politics or converting to CO₂ free power generation and so on.
That was one reason why started a new thread about going green so this one could be about the Tx outages only.
So despite my best effort the best I can manage is making S-shaped curves like an anaconda.

Secondly, the only one who is making something here right now, is you.
There was no mentioning about the electrical grid or making it about it, in my post above, you made that assumption.
So please, do not read things between the lines that are not there.

Best Regards A


“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[1503-44]

Actually most utilities were managing fine, until the northeast blackout.
...
This is what happens when government thinks they know best for us.

Cranky, please stop confusing gov regulation of electric grids with a deregulated free electric market. It is the exact opposite. Unless you mean that gov deregulated the market and made it a free market.


If they were managing just fine, how did they manage themselves into the NE Blackout?
Pipelines must offer available transport capacity to all producers.
Grids must transport electricity.
This is what happens when design/op/maint is accomplished by a free market.

 

[waross]

Where was this flimsy crap for California and the southwest in 2011? Where was this flimsy crap after a number of blackouts of the northeast?

I think that the 'Flimsy crap" is sort of following the $9000 per KWHr charges that seem to be unique to Texas.
Maybe de-regulation is a broad term and maybe Texas de-regulation is a different flavour than other regions' de-regulation.
And, two distinct questions are being intermingled here;
Why did the grid fail?
Why were charges allowed to reach insane levels?
Do other regions have a realistic price cutoff price at which point rolling black-outs are initiated?

An interesting question:
How much capacity came on-line at prices between $100 per KWHr and $9000 per KWHR?
Was it worth the pain?

Bill
--------------------
Ohm's law
Not just a good idea;
It's the LAW!

 

[dik]

I don't think it was an electrical failure, but much worse... it was a systemic failure.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[Fischstabchen]

1503-44,

All the NERC standards that other regions follow also are followed by ERCOT. Each region and registered member has a slightly different way to meet those requirements but they are nearly all the same. NERC in my opinion killed good engineering to prevent bad engineering. I am not sure if that is a bad thing because utilities don't have the expertise anymore due to the industry neglecting to hire young people and now you have a whole wave of people retiring. Utilities often can't do certain things themselves anymore and outsource anything hard. I don't even think a utility is a place for a specialist because most projects just involve project managers overseeing contractors and consultants.

Redsnake,

There have been several comments about the grid and your comment was about there being capacity issues. There has been a strong push for more capacity over the years and increasing the the cap to $9,000 one means to do that. 9% is considered enough and ERCOT shoot fors 13%. When you bring up that there should have been more capacity, you are neglecting the fact that most generation being built presently in the U.S. , not just in ERCOT, is natural gas or solar and wind. Even if there had been more capacity, it likely would have made no difference due to the amount of renewable energy being low, newly built dispatchable generation would be gas due to the economics and would have been affected by reduced natural gas availability, and the generation portfolio is not planned to handle a 30-40% lost in capacity due to a systemic issue like loss of fuel. Dispatchable generation is becoming less diverse due to the economics. Coal and nuclear plants are closing due to taking a beating from natural gas in unregulated markets. There are inherent problems due to a lost of diversity. In very green regions, there are frequency regulation and stability issues due to a lost of inertia and dispatability. With natural gas becoming the more prominent dispatchable generation, more concern should be given to its fuel supply. One thing that is not taken into account is that the FERC report for the cold weather event in 2011 with its recommendations was early in the natural gas boom. There was more dispatchable coal generation. There was more diversity and dispatchability and I think that this cold snap would have still caused problems, but if we had the same proportional portfolio the problems would have been less severe. Florida has mandates for some generators to able to accept duel fuel to be able to run after sourcing problems following a hurricane. Maybe, that is an option or just winerize the entire natural gas system.

Cranky108,

I agree most utilities were good actors. A lot of penalties are centered around CIP and vegetation control. Florida Power and Light is the utility that has been fined pretty hard for not controlling their vegetation. Several utilities have been fined millions for CIP violations and deservedly so. I don't believe most utilities would have gotten around to making their systems cyber secure without CIP. CIP, in my opinion, is probably the most important thing to come out form NERC.

Davidbeach,

I don't really like arguing with you because you have helped me on several projects. I don't agree with you on some of this and am ok with it just being that. I have enjoyed reading your contributions. I have been reading them for years.

 

[Fischstabchen]

Waross,

The electrical prices were mandated to the maximum by the PUC due to them believing they should be the max ,$9,000 per MWH, due to all customers not being served and the market should be the max to incentives everyone to generate. Prior to this, the markets were closing around $1,500 per MWH. I don't think that the buyers could drive the price organically to $9,000 if many went bankrupt. I find it hard to believe that Brazos and a number of wholesalers would ever put in bids at $9,000 knowing it would bankrupt them or that there are generators that wouldn't do what was needed to come online when the prices were around $1500 per MWH, about 50 times normal rates. SPP I believe doesn't have any sort of market cap but I think we all would agree the prices could not be driven to infinity. The prices could only be driven to what the buyer can afford to bid. With the PUC forcing the market to close out at the maximum, to me that isn't deregulation but not well thought out regulation. It would have been better if the state put together a temporary subsidy to sweeten up the deal for generation rather than screw all buyers. Or maybe just have the Attorney General promise to put a magnifying glass on anyone not doing everything possible during the crisis.

 

[RedSnake]

There have been several comments about the grid and your comment was about there being capacity issues.

Now you did it again stop assuming things.
My comment was "Maybe because of this"
Everything else was comments from oilprice.com and ERCOT actually showing the opposite.
That it wasn't a capacity issue!

BR A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[1503-44]

FERC has promised an investigation.

Everyone is dodging this. So then can ANY electrical engineer explain? I am beginning to think NOT. Is there any rationality to grid design and operation, or does some giant spider just come along, spin it and turn it over to the chimps. If there is no explanation, then ERCOT gets the blame by default.

------------
How an electrical distribution system can arise, seemingly without central authority having control of deciding the location, capacity and generator type, then seemingly be operated, all solely by changing the price of electricity, while all other significant factors are essentially random variables in regard to system installed capacity, available capacity, electricity demand and corresponding day to day operating procedures. That is still a mystery to me. I would think it is total madness to do that with a simple A to B pipeline.

OK, you don't have to write it yourself, just a link will do.

 

[dik]

That's why I said the failure was systemic...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[RedSnake]

Fischstabchen I have two questions for you.

When you get power outages do your power company compensate you for that?
And how many of this power generator company's that use natural gas as fuel own there own gas wells?

Best Regards A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[1503-44]

I have to agree. Systemic failure by design, or rather lack thereof.

I hope to find answers to some of my management of grid design questions here,

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/ebf483/

Electric Reliability Council of Texas
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas operates the electric grid and manages the deregulated market for 75 percent of the state

I think its clear why they do not say they "manage the grid".

 

[JohnRBaker]

In light of what happened, the real irony in that description is the use of the term "Reliability" ;-)

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[Fischstabchen]

Redsnake,

I am not aware of any form of compensation. A co-op I worked for in another state had an agreement with the distribution co-ops to have only a certain amount of outage hours over a 3 year span. If the the hours were exceeded, there was a lot of pressure to make some type of an improvement.

None of the utilities I worked for were involved in owning gas production for their generation. A transmission and gas company I worked for did get involved got involved in a joint venture for upstream gas production but I believe that was more about trying to try to exceed the companies meager 4% regulated return with some type of outside investment than sourcing their own gas. They managed to lose money on it. The Calpine Natural Gas Company is a subsidiary of Calpine ,the gas and power generation company, and owns wells but I think that is the exception and not the rule. There are probably a lot of joint ventures but probably are more about making money on the gas boom than sourcing their own gas. Fracking wells don't last that long and crews are constantly moving to drill new wells. At least initially, a lot of big companies avoided the natural gas boom because of this hassle and it was made up of a lot of small players.

 

[dik]

...part of the reason for the systemic failure.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[1503-44]

US Interstate gas transmission pipelines have not been allowed to own their own gas since being deregulated in the early 80's. They only do transportation.

------------------------
TX Gas Production Cuts
------------------------

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46896[/URL]]Natural gas production in Texas fell almost 45% from 21.3 Bcf/d during the week ending February 13 to a daily low of 11.8 Bcf/d on Wednesday, February 17, according to estimates from IHS Markit. Temperatures in Texas averaged nearly 30 degrees Fahrenheit lower than normal during the week of February 14. The decline in natural gas production was mostly a result of freeze-offs, which occur when water and other liquids in the raw natural gas stream freeze at the wellhead or in natural gas gathering lines near production activities. Unlike the relatively winterized natural gas production infrastructure in northern areas of the country, natural gas production infrastructure, such as wellheads, gathering lines, and processing facilities, in Texas are more susceptible to the effects of extremely cold weather. After reaching a daily low on February 17, natural gas production in Texas began increasing as temperatures started to rise. Daily production reached an estimated 20.9 Bcf/d on February 24, only about 0.3 Bcf/d lower than the average in the week ending February 13.

 

[Fischstabchen]

dik,

by that you mean?

 

[RedSnake]

I am not aware of any form of compensation.

I meant for a household consumer.
Here if the outages is more then a predefined length, you get deduction on your bills, of course you do not pay the power since you didn't get any but also transmission cost , depending on if it was the transmission company or the power company that was at fault.

And I wonder how this Emergency Alert specifically the public Conservation Alert is issued?

Conservation Alert
ERCOT - Conservation Alert
Yellow graphic with black text show the ERCOT conservation alert.
At this level, ERCOT aims to raise public awareness about shrinking reserves and the need to actively conserve energy to prevent emergency conditions.

Emergency Alerts
ERCOT - Emergency Alert Level 1
Level 1: The first EEA level is Conservation Needed.
ERCOT issues this alert when operating reserves drop below a target threshold.
This level puts providers on notice to take preliminary measures to curb demand before the situation worsens.

ERCOT - Emergency Alert Level 2
Level 2: If conditions worsen, ERCOT will next issue an EEA Level 2 – Conservation Critical.
At this level, providers are permitted to reduce their power load by interrupting supply to large commercial and industrial accounts.
The contracts these clients sign stipulate that such measures may be necessary in an emergency.

ERCOT - Emergency Alert Level 3
Level 3: If power supply declines further, ERCOT will then declare an EEA Level 3 – Rotating Outages in Progress, the final alert level.
At this level, ERCOT will require electricity providers throughout the state to begin introducing temporary outages at the local distribution level—also known as rolling brownouts or rotating outages.

https://magicvalley.coop/ercot/

Best Regards A


“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[RedSnake]

1503-44

Here is something that was done just to get better control over the usage (measuring).

In September 2003, the state legislature and PUC ordered ERCOT to transition from a wholesale electric market with four large regions to a marketplace made up of more than 4,000 nodes throughout the state. This undertaking, called the Nodal Project, aims to improve the efficiency of the grid by having more specific information for different locations throughout the state.

https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/tag/ercot/

Best Regards A


“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein