Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII 9

[dik]

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-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Regarding the "will we have to make reductions" or not comments at the end of the previous thread.

What happens, economically when there is a scarcity of a product. What happened when whale blubber was made illegal back in the late 80's. You had a few rogue nations that violated this agreement / pact and continued to hunt whales for awhile.

What did others do? Well, the products that were made with whale blubber, soap, certain oils, hair conditioner, makeup products, et cetera. Well, what happened to these products? Did they cease to exist?

No they did not, rather they increased in cost for a short time. That increased cost meant that alternative sources were encouraged to be developed. Those places use either a petroleum based oil, vegetable oil. I remember a big selling point for JoJoba oil at the time. Jojoba oil is closer to a liquid wax than an oil and is made from the seeds of a particular shrub / plant found in the California / Mexico desert environment.

The same thing is happening now and will happen in the future. What we really are trying to do now is develop those alternatives so that the transition will be possible.

For power, we're already there. Nuclear, hydro, solar, wind and such cold (with the proper incentives) completely replace fossil fuels in the production of electricity. We just don't actually want to do this currently. But, if there were a scarcity of oil and gas, then we'd transition pretty fast.... however long it takes to build more nuclear plants.

For cars, planes, boats and other transportation, we're really not all that close. We're certainly getting more efficient. Hybrid technologies, electric vehicles, biodiesel, and such.

Honestly, when you look at how much food and such just rots in a dump I gotta think that (if there were genuine scarcity) we'd be able to recycle a lot of this waste into biodiesels. Or, maybe use it to ferment alcohol that we could use to power some transportation.

That being said, you can't really beat jet fuel for energy storage per kilogram. So, I don't really see jet planes moving off of fossil fuels anytime in the next few decades. Maybe we'll have to use a manufactured hydrogen or such like we do for rockets. But, that's got its own pretty severe drawbacks (i.e.... boom!).

 

[JoshPlumSE]

I should also point out that if / when scarcity of fossil fuels occurs one of the major changes will be in our choices. We'll bike more when we're traveling short distances alone. We'll take mass transit rather drive cross country. Flying would be a luxury reserved for the wealthy.

We'll find ways to get business done via zoom meeting and such rather than flying to Europe or such. We'll vacation closer to home. All kinds of things like this. You change your habits based on what's affordable.

In summary, the world (and humanity) will survive. But, that doesn't mean it won't be painful.

 

[dik]

The problem, Josh, is that we have no idea of where this will end up... somewhere between OK and ugly. Unfortunately, as I read things, once things start to move, it may not be possible to stop them.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[CWB1]

Natural Gas = 38% of electricity production.
Nuclear = +9% (though California doesn't consider this to be 'clean')
Hydro = +10% (though California doesn't consider this to be clean or renewable for some crazy political reason)

From Josh's post in the previous thread.

Today's "green" designation of various energy sources seriously irks me. Hydro commonly isnt considered green/clean/renewable bc of a purported negative impact on marine ecology. In the northeast US we spent decades tearing out old water turbines that had produced power for decades with almost no maintenance and around which nature thrived. This was done to allow nature to "reclaim" watersheds which we damaged by removing the turbines. Those turbines also generated almost no landfill waste, unlike wind and solar. Similar in lunacy is declaring natural gas green/clean/etc while allowing comparatively lax standards for its hydrocarbons' emissions despite many climatologists declaring methane the worst of the greenhouse gases to allow to escape.

 

[enginesrus]

From Josh's post in the previous thread.

Today's "green" designation of various energy sources seriously irks me. Hydro commonly isnt considered green/clean/renewable bc of a purported negative impact on marine ecology. In the northeast US we spent decades tearing out old water turbines that had produced power for decades with almost no maintenance and around which nature thrived. This was done to allow nature to "reclaim" watersheds which we damaged by removing the turbines. Those turbines also generated almost no landfill waste, unlike wind and solar. Similar in lunacy is declaring natural gas green/clean/etc while allowing comparatively lax standards for its hydrocarbons' emissions despite many climatologists declaring methane the worst of the greenhouse gases to allow to escape.

The off shore windmills are doing the same to marine life, that is a non issue, to the ones that wanted the dams destroyed.

 

[dik]

Like it or not, the world may have to move away from fossil fuels because of their footprint. I know how or if this will happen.

My concern is that the extreme weather events of late (if you think they're extreme; there are a few that think this is normal) may just be the beginning of more extreme events in future. This might just be the beginning, and there may be a 'point of no return', and we may have already passed this. We have accoomplished things in decades that have taken millennia in the past. I just don't know... things could be rosey, but I don't think so.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

The problem, Josh, is that we have no idea of where this will end up... somewhere between OK and ugly. Unfortunately, as I read things, once things start to move, it may not be possible to stop them.

What does "where this will end up" actually mean? Are you talking about cataclysmic damage to the earth such that it will not be habitable for humans? That is highly, highly unlikely. I know that's what alarmists are pushing, but I just don't buy it.

It will be a little hotter. Some desert areas may be too hot to inhabit in the summer time. But, that's pretty much the way it is already. You just don't live there in the summer. Palm Springs, Vegas. The middle east, the Sahara.... etc. Those places may dry up and people will move away. But, most of the world will be affected only slightly.

Are we talking about dramatic rises in sea levels? Probably not. But, there will be a rise in sea levels. Will it be enough to send whole countries into the ocean? Almost certainly not. But, some beach front properties (currently owned by the elitists who say that we shouldn't be allowed to drive cars while they fly their private jets around the world) may get flooded out.

My point is that the most likely result is that there will be economic consequences. Cost of certain products goes up, cost of certain behaviors goes up. The world will adjust, people will innovate and make huge profits off of their innovations (just like they always have) and life will go on. Our economies will adjust and we'll keep on living and dominating this planet. Eventually, the excess CO2 will be absorbed by plant life and such and the temporary issues caused by our CO2 emissions will go away. This will probably occur over a much shorter period (100 or 200 years) than you might think. Worst case is it takes a thousand years. But, in the end our Global Warming blip will be no greater than the "ozone whole" crises that we dealt with in the 1980s.

 

[dik]

I have no idea... it could be OK, or it could get real ugly, when people are starving to death. The geopolitical changes could be massive. We just don't know where this is going... it may be totally new territory.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

...another feature about climate change. Skies could be a lot more turbulent.

https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/clim...ave-seatbelt-on-health-travel-carolyn-barber/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

I have no idea... it could be OK, or it could get real ugly, when people are starving to death.

I predict that plant growth (and food plan growth) will INCREASE globally when the temperatures increase. Maybe some specific areas will be hit hard. But, this will mostly only affect poor countries like the communist countries, the 3rd world and such.

It's pretty simple scientifically. Longer growing seasons, more CO2 to feed the plants. Are you anti-science?

 

[dik]

I sure hope you're correct, Josh... it's the aridification or desertification that may be a problem... it will be interesting when California has 45C weather... just a potential...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories did a study on California and determined that warming would cause an increase in precipitation. Are there any sources without a conflict of interest claiming aridification?

 

[dik]

Do they want the amount of water that they've had lately... there may not be much to control the amount... There are just so many articles on aridification of the American West...

https://www.latimes.com/environment...cation-kills-civilizations-is-california-next

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/3/BAMS-D-21-0321.1.xml

Tub, the latter article is very informative.


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Do they want the amount of water that they've had lately... there may not be much to control the amount... There are just so many articles on aridification of the American West...

We'd quickly figure out how to deal with it. Right? As long as there is an economic incentive to do so, we'll figure it out. That's generally how life and economics works.

We'll figure out how to deal with a wetter climate in certain areas. Maybe better flood control systems and such. Certain people in low lying area (i.e. flood planes) may have to move.

We'll figure it out with a more arid climate in certain areas. Heck.... LA and Southern California have barely any natural precipitation at all. Yet, LA is the 2nd largest metropolis in the US and we've found a way to support a population of 12.5 million people. If it gets more arid, then people may move towards the mountains and lakes or towards more mild weather at the coast (or both).

Heck, people may move to Northern California, Oregon, Washington or Alaska. But, that's just it.... we can move. We're very adaptable as a species. Even before technology, we had populations in the most extreme places imaginable. Middle of the Ocean (Hawaii and various islands). Middle of the desert (Saharan Africa, Arizona and such). Totally freezing conditions (Alaskan natives). Humanity finds a way.... even without modern technology and science. But, somehow Global warming is going to completely destroy us?!

 

[hokie66]

Our resident Chicken Little has no idea. He said so himself.

 

[dik]

Remember Hokie... Chicken Little only has to be right, once.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

O, OK on that basis we don't need to collect any more data or do any more science. Because you can't make a rational decision based on that assumption. Chicken Littleites are an extreme example of the precautionary principle, discussed intelligently here

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar... with,principles of rational decision-making.

So you better get rid of your cell phone, there is a non zero chance it will cause cancer. And you better fit dry weather tires on a sunny day, and wet weather tires on a rainy day. And you better use slightly worn in tires than new ones or old ones.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[dik]

It will be interesting to keep track of any changes... for the better, or for the worse. Realising, of course, that this is just a tiny 'blip' in geologic time...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

It's not a tiny blip! Sea levels have risen 400 feet in the last 14k years. Current observations and projections are slower than recent history. I don't understand the concern.