I reaaly wonder if John Hart_smith predicted this outcome in 2000, see attached file. In particular look at Figure 2. If this structure has been designed using failure envelopes developed using derivatives of the Tsai-Hill or Tsai-Wu ply-by-ply analytical methods, then this issue must be considered in any investigation. Let me explain. These approaches input unidirectional tensile and compression strengths in the fibre and transverse directions and from that test data they generate an elliptical stress-based ply failure envelope. Again, refer to Figure 2 of Hart-Smith's paper.
The problem is that any change in the material strength properties (Hart-Smith uses the example of a weak transverse tensile strength, but a similar outcome could be generated by reducing the transverse allowable tensile strength) will result in a predicted substantial INCREASE in the compression-compression strength as the failure criteria equations redraw the elliptical failure envelope through the adjusted data points. How can a change in the transverse tensile properties result in such a predicted modification of the compression-compression strength? There is absolutely no physical explanation for such a radical prediction. I personally asked Stephen Tsai at an ICCOM conference in Beijing how he could explain this and his reply was "The mathematics said it does". I am sorry, but I am an old dog. Unless I can understand the physics behind the mathematics, it is nothing more than mathematical gymnastics. The coincidence with reality is purely fantasy.
In fact in the attached paper, Hart-Smith asks if the reader would be prepared to participate in the underwater certification tests of submarines designed on the basis of these failure analyses.
I am al;so aware that Mike Hinton (google) et al investigated the veracity of composite failure theories and although, relying on the memory of a 75 year old white guy, the failure theories discussed performed badly.
Now, I have no idea of what failure criteria were used to design the composite shell. I am simply throwing the possible explanation out for discussion. I just hope that five people didn't die just because the mathematics said so.
As a rider, I have fifty years experience in composites and adhesive bonding, including courses in damage tolerance and failure forensics.You won't find too many junior engineers with the wisdom of having kicked most of the stones along the path to knowledge. If you really want to employ the young uninhibited creative engineers to expand the essesnce of your technology, you really must accept the risks that are inherent in your choice.
Regards
Blakmax