Ukraine airline crash Tehran 16

[LittleInch]

Fairly horrific video showing what looks like a major fire and a spiral into the ground.

With the current situation don't know if well ever get to see what happened here.

New plane 737 800.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/08/iran-plane-crash-ukraine-boeing-180-tehran

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[IRstuff]

Someone is certainly going to lose their head, probably literally, given that the Ukrainian plane had just taken off from Tehran's airport. Given that possible scenario, it might be likely that the jet was returning to the airport because the first missile missed and the pilots assumed they were under attack. That might be why the cockpit voice recordings will never see the light of day, at least, until Iran doctors it sufficiently

TTFN (ta ta for now)
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[HorsieJuice]

NYT has what's purported to be video of the missile strike:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Yep all very sad. Wouldn't call it a engineering failure. It worked exactly how it should have done.

Unfortunately in quiet a few countries civi aircraft are tracked constantly when they are within range. Mil mates say this is due to keeping the scopies alert and keeping the skills current.

It happens in Europe as well for training purposes but I believe they don't have hot ones loaded.

These missiles don't actually hit the aircraft they get near then explode and send a sphere of high Ek hardened shrapnel out. Some of them have a high Ek ring which projects forward as well. As such the plane doesn't explode when hit until the fuel goes up. It just has a large amount of its systems taken out and its fuel tanks shredded.

I suspect it was a training session and the firing circuit fuse wasn't pulled.

This has happen to the UK RAF as well with the infamous Jag take down by a Phantom over Germany. Everyone was flying hot due to the cold war and a fuse wasn't pulled properly resulting in a missile coming off the rails and hitting the target during a training exercise. This happened in 1982.

 

[thebard3]

I suspect it wasn't a training scenario. They were on high alert and it seems that they mis-identified the aircraft. As a former navy fire control technician, I'll say we were NEVER allowed to track civilian aircraft, but we did it anyway because sometimes you have to actually track something just to prove operation. We could never have accidentally fired a missile. Also, having read the report of the Iran Air 655 downing by the navy in 1988, I was bewildered that there could ever be a situation where anyone could not tell the difference between a civilian airliner on take-off from an airport and a military jet on an attack run. It would be just like mistaking a semi truck on the interstate from an indy car.
Anyways, definitely not an engineering failure as it looks like both the plane and the AA battery worked flawlessly.

Brad Waybright

It's all okay as long as it's okay.

 

[VEBill]

Reaching for "training session" as a possible explanation seems unnecessary, especially given the larger context (recent news items and, some might add the endemic societal characteristics).

More likely to be just accidental / negligent misidentification within that context. This is speculation too of course, but arguably more likely.

Vaguely similar to Iran Air Flight 655. See also list of such incidents.

 

[3DDave]

I suspect the SAM site operator fell asleep and awakened to a proximity alarm and just took the shot. It may have been blaring away for several minutes before waking him. They've probably been on alert for days and in the relative quiet of the vehicle and the dark of the mountains - it caught up.

From the location they fired from they had an airplane heading out into the mountains and away from structures so they would have had another 3 minutes to call to verify if they'd watched it take off and still have time to shoot.

So I think the operator felt they had no time at all and would have been sitting ducks with the radar running if that was an anti-radar mission.

The alternative is some large conspiracy of multiple layers and that seems too complicated and unnecessary. Example: they wanted to kill one of the passengers - why not secretly arrest them on some pretext and arrange an accident and dump them somewhere plausible? Another is some rebel faction using this for some other purpose - but to do that they need to take credit for a heinous act and where's the advantage to that?

 

[IRstuff]

Doesn't have to be a conspiracy, just one commander who felt it was God's will that he shoot down a plane belonging to a US ally, partially filled with citizens from another US ally. In any country where chain of command could be suborned by a religious imperative, anything can happen. Any Iranians that die on the plane in such a circumstance would considered martyrs, in some circles, who automatically go to the heavenly paradise.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
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[JAE]

IRstuff - agree. But it isn't only religious imperatives. Some political philosophies create similar, if not more extreme zeal...and many "religious" movements are really just covers for blatant political power.

 

[LittleInch]

If you can't access the nytimes video here's another route.

Looks pretty damming to me.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/v...o-show-missile-striking-ukrainian-plane-video

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[LionelHutz]

Despite the circumstances, it does strike me as rather funny each time someone states or the new writes that the missile launches could have been accidental. I highly doubt the missiles launched by themselves. Someone had to purposely targeted the plane and initiate the launch. The missiles were purposely launched at the wrong target would be a more correct description.

It sounds like the USA has enough evidence which proves beyond a doubt it was a missile strike. But, it might never be fully released since it could compromise their ability to continue spying on countries like Iran. The claims by Iran that they'll allow Ukrainian and Canadians to help investigate is just posturing because they'll be working hard against those investigators to keep as much physical evidence hidden as they can.

 

[phamENG]

Lionel - as some mentioned before, there are countries out there whose military will "practice" on civilian aircraft for radar tracking, target acquisition, and firing drills. The key is not actually firing. Whether there was a button pressed that should have been, or a fuse that should of been pulled but wasn't, there are ways that such a "practice" scenario could go terribly wrong.

 

[LionelHutz]

I very highly doubt they were simply doing drills hours after launching that retaliatory missile strike. Whoever was in command of those missiles purposely launched at the plane.

 

[waross]

It's another story as to how I got a ride in the fold down navigators seat in a 737, years ago. In the mid 80s as I recall.
We were flying past a Canadian Air base and a little light lit up on the corner of the radar set.
Part of the conversation between the pilots:
"Damm. The base is tracking us."
"They have us on radar lock."
"I wish that they wouldn't do that."
"Ya, I really wish they wouldn't do that."

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

 

[3DDave]

As long as motive never matters there can never be an accident? Look up the definition of the word so we can all be on the same page from now on.

 

[thebard3]

As far as I know, there has never been a case of a US military land or sea based missile being launched during a drill by accident. In the old days when an trainable launcher was used, we loaded up a test missile which had no motor, guidance, seeker, fuse or warhead. Land based assets were similar. Today the missiles are basically launched directly from the magazine but I would be very surprised if the safeguards in place are less secure now than they were then. Basically the firing key and the live ammunition are air-gapped. I know very little about aircraft launched systems so I can't comment there. I would be likewise surprised if the TOR system in question isn't safeguarded similarly.

Brad Waybright

It's all okay as long as it's okay.

 

[3DDave]

You mean there has never been an inadvertent launch. Shooting down the Iranian passenger plane was an accident.

 

[thebard3]

You mean there has never been an inadvertent launch.

Exactly correct. My statement was that one was never 'launched during a drill by accident'. I guess I should clarify that I am excluding live firing exercise. I'd be really surprised if the Iranians were conducting a live firing exercise over Tehran at night in the vicinity of their airport.
I think the plane was shot down on purpose, but I am not implying that there was anything purposeful about downing a passenger plane full of civilians. It was unfortunately mis-identified as a military target of some form. I actually have some sympathy for the crew of the AA battery as I'm sure at least most of them will have remorse and regret for the rest of their lives for the mistake they made.

Brad Waybright

It's all okay as long as it's okay.

 

[3DDave]

That word "accident" again. I don't care about the "DRILL" part. Because we are looking at the situation of bringing down an aircraft, not shooting a cloud. So we are concerned with the reason for the launch.

But good on the USN for hiding any inadvertent launches they most certainly must have done. The US Miliary lost NUCLEAR WEAPONS on at least two occasions, but nope, could not have a training exercise go wrong.

I know for a fact, that an E-FOGM missile launch fired the wrong missile out of the launcher because the boost motor was wired wrong at the test panel. So when they saw they had no control of the missile they hit the self-destruct, which promptly blew the second test missile to smithereens because that's where the optical fiber communication went.

I guess that could not have been an accident. It must have been on purpose because every step along the way was deliberately performed to get exactly that result.

 

[IRstuff]

and many "religious" movements are really just covers for blatant political power.

No doubt, but at the individual actors' level, it's rarely about helping someone else to power.

As long as motive never matters there can never be an accident? Look up the definition of the word so we can all be on the same page from now on.

The definitions boil down to "unintentional" or "random physics" neither of which apply if it was a missile. Someone had to track the target, arm the launcher, arm the missile, and push a button. The middle two might possibly be a single act. There is the possibility that someone honestly thought it was a threat aircraft, but it's unlikely, given that commercial airliners all have transponders and the radar track would have shown it to have come from the airport. Moreover, if the system had been in place for anytime more than a day, the operators would have been familiar with the flight patterns around the airport.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
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[thebard3]

3DDave-
Wow. I kinda thought we were in agreement about this thing but I guess not. I can only speak from my experience and knowledge base from my military time many years ago. I never said accidents don't occur, and I think this was one of them, in one of many forms of how you may define 'accident'.

Brad Waybright

It's all okay as long as it's okay.