European Energy Crisis 4

[SSCon]

The energy crisis looks like it's going to develop into a full-blown catastrophe, yet there is very little media attention. For those not aware, natural gas & electricity prices are at record levels and we're only one week into the "heating season".

UK gas prices reached £4/Therm, equivalent to $54/MMBtu (no I didn't misconvert that, but I'll understand if you feel the need to double check).

Electricity prices are at astonishing levels right across Europe.

Ireland seems likely to be the first to fail as they're at the end of the gas supply chain and currently have the highest electricity prices.

This winter Europe will be at the mercy of the weather, mild & windy and it may be ok. But if it's cold, the level of disaster coming is hard to conceive.

 

[dik]

@Tug...
It is political, but much deeper... and without inflaming the audience, it is part of conservation and climate change.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[dik]

...as they say, "It's time to pay the piper.".

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[dik]

You're not aware of it, yet... but, it's coming.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[1503-44]

Looks like CCGT comes on every day at 6am and runs till 8pm.

 

[Red Corona]

Price rises aren't a serious problem, though they might be a political one in some countries and we might see state support or subsidies for suppliers. The real issue is if there just isn't the supply to cover the resurgence in demand - which I agree with @1503-44, we'd have seen it last year if it weren't for Covid, but that doesn't change the fact that supply isn't that elastic and it's a big change in demand in a short time.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

This has been building for years. The politicians have always kicked it into the next generation to sort out.

This is just the start of it. There are a load of very old reactors and no real plan to do something about lost capacity.

 

[1503-44]

And no time left to build all that we would need. If the US tried to meet all projected demands as of today with nukes, it would take 50 years to build enough just to cover what's being used today.

At this point it is physically impossible to shoot around the 8 ball. It looks like reduction in demand will be a forced reduction.

 

[LittleInch]

It is political because these are long term issues being dealt with by people whose long term only stretches to the next election.

So when the ban nukes bandroll came after Fukishima, no one in charge gave a thought to what was going to happen in 10 years time other than "more wind".

We've all had 10 years of artificially low energy costs but everyone's got used to it and having spot prices low and pretty steady

The shock could be the same as the 1973 oil price increase.

It was always going to be difficult to navigate the change from single massive generation plants to more distributed, variable energy sources such as wind or solar.

No simple answers here.

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

The Germans with there smart grid stuff are doing interesting things. But I suspect a lot of people won't be happy with others being in control of their electricity demand. And would prefer an all or nothing for everyone instead of them being able to selective load and unload.

Most countries the only control the grid has over solar inverters is by letting the frequency rise to over 50.2hz so they all shutdown. But then that's an all or nothing strike and usually triggers a low frequency event very quickly with the drop in supply power.

Must admit I have my place set up so if the inverter is taken out by the grid frequency the house basically shuts down apart from the fridge and freezer running. I can over ride it if we are staying there. They have tested it once here and it caused days of instability so I believe they have decided to not use it again.

 

[davefitz]

It may be that Putin is withholding gas thru the Ukraine to the EU in order to pressure EU officials to allow unregulated gas to flow thru Nordstream 2. The EU wants to regulate the NS2 gas in that the supplier cannot be the same as the distributor, but that cuts out some profits that the russians are pursuing. If the EU gives Putin his way, then the gas may begin to flow again thru the Ukraine to the EU.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[SSCon]

Russia may be able to ramp up supplies to Europe and they are pressuring Germany to allow it be done through NS2 rather than Ukraine.

But they haven't caused this crisis by witholding gas. Russian gas output so far this year has been at historic highs.

It doesn't look like they have the capacity to save Europe.

 

[1503-44]

Russia will ensure the gas flows as long as the bill is paid, like they have done for every single day during the worst part of the Cold War. They never missed a day. Anything else you've heard came from Ted Cruz' mouth.

 

[dik]

Running it through the Ukraine is likely a 'deal breaker' for political reasons... Russia can bide their time to achieve this. Russia does not want the Ukraine to capitalise on this venture.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[JohnRBaker]

Of course, if the pipeline does run through the Ukraine, Russia could later use this an excuse for occupying the rest of the country, "to protest their national interests".

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-'Product Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[dik]

It doesn't need to do that... Crimea separated from the Ukraine because of Ukranian government corruption. Russia did not invade or occupy...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[JohnRBaker]

My understanding is that the corruption in the Ukraine reached its pinnacle during that period when the Russians had installed their own hand-picked 'President'. The 'occupation' of the Crimea came only after the former president returned to Russia and an anti-Russian leaning government was installed in Kiev.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-'Product Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[TugboatEng]

Maybe Burisma should have hired better advisors?

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Truth be told when the soviet union collapsed they left a lot of their crap behind. So if you were educated and not an alcoholic you had a chance of going to Russia but they left a significant number of ethnic Russians behind. Some say this was to provide an excuse to invade later. In the Baltic states they basically cleared out in under 48 hours. Those that were going back to Russia were collected and moved and then the border slammed down for the others. There is still what's called illegals with grey passports in the Baltic states. They were either born before that time in Russia or both parents are also grey passports. They do sometimes hold internal Russian passports but they don't have international passports and required to comply with visas regulations so they can't stay in Russia or work there. They can get proper citizenship if they jump through some hoops such as speak the local lingo, but there are loads of them that can't or won't jump through the hoops.

The ex soviets around me say that Ukraine was left was some pretty nasty types as was Belarus mainly because of Chernobyl. A lot of criminal types engineered going there because of the amount of resources that were being moved there to deal with the reactor and international aid which was getting pumped in to the likes of Gomel. And to be honest even before the collapse of the soviet union the locals were not very pleasant. Odessa was a prime vacation spot for most of the Baltics so they had visited them.

The current proper modern Russians don't like the ethnic Russians left behind. As my mate puts it "they talk and act like trash its no wonder everyone hates Russia when they are exposed to them all the time".

I had zero clue about all this before I moved here, also my views and understanding of WW2 eastern front have also changed since I have been here. And it doesn't match what we were taught at school about it.

 

[hokie66]

I was surprised to see this in Tallinn.

https://news.err.ee/108053/opinion-the-yeltsin-monument-and-national-arrogance

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

I am not,

Its complicated and there is a lot of very hot tempers created by the subject by both sides.

Not with standing that most of the industry and leaders came out of the communist peaking order. Mainly because they knew everyone and knew who to go speak to and where the resources were sitting ready for the picking.

Its really not as I expected after my UK education, there was and is a lot more in play than most of us in the West have any clue about.

Have a google about the Tallinn ferry the Estonia that sank on the way to Sweden.

The Kursk is also in play.

Most of the adult population over 50 have soviet pensions due to them as well. Quiet how that all works I really don't know.