Pipeline Pressure Loss 14

[hacksaw]

https://www.barrons.com/news/germany-investigates-russian-pipeline-pressure-drop-01664204407

 

[RedSnake]

Logically, the Russians are the least likely to have done it but we live in an illogical world right now.

Well it is only illogical and unlikely because you don't know or see the way the Russians do things.
It would be equally illogical for them to bomb the Zaporizhia NNP, when, they themselves occupies it and still they do.
Or shelling inside occupied citys in Donetsk killing civillians just to motivate the men to take a contract and go to the front and fight, that is normal Russian logic.

There is still one intact pipe in Nord Stream 2 that Gazprom owns 100% of so why didn't all the pipes got blown up when they where at it?
If it was someone else then the Russians, was it only a bad job done?

 

[TugboatEng]

To be clear, I'm not saying the Russians didn't do it.

 

[RedSnake]

Okey, about the NPP it is of the grid again from Russian shelling.
It is a structural failure I guess, the Ukrainians blow up the Crimea bridge, no need to investigate who did that. ;-)

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[SSCon]

Not so quick, the Ukrainians are now claiming the bridge bombing was a Russian operation. I suppose if people are willing to believe the Russians blew up their own pipelines, they'll believe they blew up their own bridge.

Now seriously. FSB/PMC try to eliminate leadership of Defense Ministry/GHQ. Before personnel change, FSB is in knockdown — missed Putin's bridge explosion. Defense Ministry can now blame FSB for the future South loss. Isn’t it obvious who made an explosion? Truck arrived from RF.

 

[RedSnake]

Yes, it is true they think the FSB (The Federal Security Service) did it, there is also rumors about militaries being arrested in Moscow.
Only found this at the UA Army site and all other references comes from here so, I am not sure if it is correct though.

Some claim that FSB and the military don't see eye to eye.
Many rumors, not much fact at the moment.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[RedSnake]

How much TNT a bridge is suppose to be able to take I guess is a structural question?

The same as with the pipelines is it a coincident, that only the lane going to Ukraine/Crimea was damaged the one going to Russia is still passable more or less intact. meaning....

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/8-october-first-vehicles-are-now-driving-over-the-damaged

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

The road doesn't matter Russia only had 1950's lorry now.

It's the rail that really matters with the logistics structure.

It might have been one of the suppressed regions of Russia suicide but what I can see from the vids is the blast came from under the bridge.

 

[RedSnake]

Yes I agree, it wasn't the truck.
The truck owner sold it and bought a car he is now not in Russia but some other country.
The truck was never transferred to the new owner.

One other thing, if you where to really blow up the bridge, why not put explosives under both of the bridge column blowing up both lanes to and from Russia/Crimea when you already was there, even if one would have malfunctioned the other would have set it of.
In some videos it looks like two explosions but both on the same lane.
There is two sections missing on the right lane with a intact peace in-between.
To put explosives on the railway columns would have been harder without being detected, but still why stop a train in the middle of the bridge it wasn't moving in the video.
To much of a coincidence hmm..

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Reds there is reasons but it gets highly tatical and job ability for a "give it a dose of bang"

As above I have served but don't have any practical or planning skill set with this sort of stuff.

Have had conversations with "them" about how to take stuff out with effect. IE mushroom or wet fart and then it drops possible when the next lorry goes over.

It's the reason why certain people wanted our group in the CP even though we were civis in uniform at the time. To be fair the majority ended up regular and at staff rank. And tiger teams evolved 5 years later. And why I was asked who I really am. Which the completely honest reply is abosultely nothing and shouldn't have existed in the orbat.

 

[Factoter]

Train heading toward Crimea, preparing to pull the grade for the arch and going slow, truck came in behind and blew 7 tanker cars of fuels, damaging the road deck fore and aft. Train continued not a quarter mile to standstill and roasted the concrete tresses—- but Russia states will be ready (by contingency?) next weekend to reopen. I have my doubts about this train trestle, but maybe they can’t count on it lasting too long anyway?
Anyrate, besides having train schedules a spotter would have had radio contact with the driver or his handlers. Seems they jumped the gun by half a click, and missed the big prize of flaming arches!

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

I wouldn't have thought they wanted the arches down. They need to keep the shipping channel open.

 

[TugboatEng]

Ammunition trains have a history of exploding. Was this train carrying supplies for the Russian military?

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Nobody knows, but pretty much everything in that region will have military logistics onboard of some form.

It might not be ammunition, but those fuel tanks will be missed.

 

[RedSnake]

It looked like a fuel tanks.

https://t.me/zsuwar/22641

Some videos

https://t.me/zsuwar/22561

https://t.me/zsuwar/22557

One in slow motion

https://t.me/Tsaplienko/17422

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[RedSnake]

This film show some interesting things..

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578632595633758208

If you look at the water flowing underneath the bridge on the right side of the screen before the first visible pillar.
At 0.02 in the video before the blast you can see that there is "white foam" coming with the water flow before the explosion.
To me it seems like the blast is coming from either under the water on the right-side of the bridge or from underneath it.

Then at 0.25 it looks like a second blast coming in-between the road and the train part of the bridge.
Could be that the truck also was carrying explosivs or there where two charges on the bridge?

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

More interested in what the effects of 8 railway tanker loads of burning fuel will do to that monocock beam section that is the structure of the railway.

 

[Electronbelt]

More interested in what the effects of 8 railway tanker loads of burning fuel will do to that monocock beam section that is the structure of the railway.

Not to derail this topic anymore than it already has been (no pun intended), I certainly would not want to travel over it myself.

Having said that...

Unofficial consensus right now is 'something' exploded on top of the NW bound lanes (Russia->Crimea) of the east span causing mid-span failure which subsequently shifted multiple deck pieces from their foundation mounts.

Additionally, the west span containing the SE bound lanes (Crimea->Russia) experienced severe deformation of the structure holding up the east-most lane.

The freight train hauling petroleum and oil subsequently caught fire (did not explode) as it was showered with debris. In most of the early event photos you can see oil seeping down the trestle structure and burning across the various surfaces. There also were several utility lines suspended from the rail trestle, however their roll in this event, if any, is currently unknown.

As of October* 8th Russia has:
Re-opened the west lane of the west span to light 'civilian' traffic at spaced intervals.
Lorries are not permitted on the bridge. Approved shipments may move via ferry.
Initially all waterway travel around the bridge was suspended. Vetted cargo traffic has now resumed.
Full-speed rail service has resumed. (yes, less than 12 hours after the incident/fire)

This image shows the collapsed span from below. View is looking NW towards Crimea. Rail trestle is to the left.

Edit: Date correction.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Any luck the railway will fail with a big load of bang going over it and blow the whole lot halfway to Moscow

But they can't afford not to run the rail the whole southern front would collapse in a matter of hours.

They may not be running the trains loaded and only running them to stop the Russian troops from legging it.

 

[spsalso]

The video of the explosion shows two trucks (and two cars) on that section of the bridge. The near car and truck manage to stop before going into the area. The far car and truck are already on the rise going up to the real bridge, so they are past the explosion.

Since there were only two trucks evident, and neither appears to have exploded, it does not appear to have been a truck bomb.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/20...o/playlists/russia-ukraine-military-conflict/

spsalso

(added comments on above): Looking at more video and stills, it does now look to me like the "far" truck could have been in the blast area. I had thought the blast happened in the flat section, just ahead of the start of the rise. Now it looks to me like it happened at the start of the grade, which likely included the far truck. There's a LOT of foreshortening in the one video.

 

[Electronbelt]

The surveillance camera angle from the rail trestle seems to indicated that - whether or not it was an initiator - the first truck (and passenger vehicle) were both in the blast zone.

0:00-0:28 Causeway overlook camera.
0:28-end Causeway as viewed from trestle.

[URL unfurl="true"]https://youtu.be/S-juPsPG6FE?t=27[/url]

My personal thoughts were initially a missile for obvious reasons. Second was a bomb-laden drone boat like that which washed up in the theatre last month. Lastly on the list was a bomb truck because, well quite frankly, that has a lot of other implications to this global situation.

In any case I lean more towards a top-down attack just based on the surface appearance of the bottom of the structure and surrounding areas vs the top.

Whatever it was, it was clearly a very energetic detonation and I suspect, just like the main topic of this thread, we may never truly know the full story.