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Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII 21
- Thread starter dik
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #41
Maybe it will slide into the ocean...
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
TugboatEng
Marine/Ocean
Ita not all doom and gloom in CA. We even got a double rainbow today.
JoshPlumSE
Structural
TugBoatEng said:
There is very little "perspective" given in California. Here we are always in one of the following situations:
a) In the middle of a drought.
b) Just got out of a drought.
c) Need to be prepared to go into a drought that will be right around the corner. (See the last atmospheric river event in 2016/2017).
We're just a relatively dry, arid state. We're not used to significant rain storms. We'll go years (maybe even decades) between events like we're experiencing now. As such, our infrastructure is not very well prepared to handle this degree of rain. Which means, roads will flood (or wash out completely), storm drains will get clogged up causing localized flooding.
In enough places, the brush cover has dried out died out to the point where we worry about mud slides as well.
Now, as far as the "drought" is concerned, these storms are a good thing. We'll get our reservoir levels up a bunch. My guess is that just about all of the reservoirs in NorCal will be filled this year. We'll get our snow back up as well. Snow pack is really important for us because that keeps of reservoirs full (from melting snow pack) for most of the year.
JoshPlumSE
Structural
Some notes about current reservoir levels (from a site that's updated daily):
I expect all of those numbers will go up significantly between now and the end of the month. The next question is what happens with the reservoirs in the other western states, especially Lake Mead. I have a feeling Lake Mead will go up much more slowly.... Since it's fed by the Colorado river and snow / rain in the Rockies, not the Sierra Nevadas.
Shasta and Oroville (the big ones with more than 8 Million Acre-Feet between the two) are at about 50% of capacity.
Trinity and Melonnes (with 2.4 M each) are closer to 25% of capacity.
Don Pedro (2M) is at about 75% of capacity (which is about the historical average).
San Luis (2M) is at about 40% of capacity.
McClure, Folsom, and Pine flat (with 3M between them) are all right about in line with historical averages, which should be a big improvement over last year.
Millerton (0.52M) and Parris (0.12M) are approaching capacity (i.e. more than 75% full).
Trinity and Melonnes (with 2.4 M each) are closer to 25% of capacity.
Don Pedro (2M) is at about 75% of capacity (which is about the historical average).
San Luis (2M) is at about 40% of capacity.
McClure, Folsom, and Pine flat (with 3M between them) are all right about in line with historical averages, which should be a big improvement over last year.
Millerton (0.52M) and Parris (0.12M) are approaching capacity (i.e. more than 75% full).
I expect all of those numbers will go up significantly between now and the end of the month. The next question is what happens with the reservoirs in the other western states, especially Lake Mead. I have a feeling Lake Mead will go up much more slowly.... Since it's fed by the Colorado river and snow / rain in the Rockies, not the Sierra Nevadas.
JoshPlumSE
Structural
As far as Global Warming is concerned, I think we are more likely to see more precipitation in California than we've seen historically. It will result in more flooding and problems for a bit. But, in the long run, we'll just work on the infrastructure a bit and we'll get it taken care of. I'd argue that (if precipitation does increases over historic levels) then that will be a good thing for the population of CA. More water, more CO2 free power, more agriculture, et cetera.
- Thread starter
- #46
GregLocock
Automotive
Dik's headline of course sensationalises a report described by its authors as
"This BAMS special report presents assessments of how human-caused climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of extreme events."
Or indeed, may not.
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
"This BAMS special report presents assessments of how human-caused climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of extreme events."
Or indeed, may not.
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
- Thread starter
- #48
TugboatEng
Marine/Ocean
You can Google that. Josh explained what he thought Lake Mead would do in his above post but it is not his responsibility to explain what it is currently doing.
JoshPlumSE
Structural
Dik said:
I left out Lake Mead and Lake Powell because those aren't reservoirs for California. Not as affected by the California rains / storms. The information I was reading about them is that they are entirely fed by the Colorado River. Which (if you look at the path of the Colorado on a map) is mainly fed by the Rockies rather than the Sierra Nevadas. I'm not sure how much these current rains have hit the Rockies.
Even if the Rockies have been affected by these storms, it wouldn't be until the snow melts in the spring that the flow of the Colorado would increase. I also wonder how many states syphon off water from this river before it gets to Lake Mead and Lake Powell. My understanding is that there are basic issues with these reservoirs and the current use of water consumption isn't sustainable. At least in the desert areas of Arizona / Nevada / California where it's water is being consumed.
However, my post was mostly about California's water storage system as a whole. Which should be in pretty decent shape after this winter (fingers crossed). While Southern California and the Central Valley are quite dry. There is enough water storage in NorCal and the Sierras to solve that problem.... especially if we would be more willing to use "recycled" water or grey water.
However, I think you are correct in saying the worst "water issues" are currently associated with Lake Mead. Even if that doesn't affect people where I live and the vast majority of Californians.
- Thread starter
- #51
TugboatEng
Marine/Ocean
Without it we wouldn't be able to buy electricity for Nevada and claim our net zero status.
JoshPlumSE
Structural
Dik said:
Nowhere in NorCal, the Bay Area, or the Central valley is dependent on Lake Mead. Not Fresno, Stockton, or Sacramento. Not anywhere in the Sierra Nevadas, Big Bear, Tahoe or Mammoth. Not Santa Barbara. Not LA or Orange County as far as I'm aware.
Maybe parts of San Diego, Riverside, or Imperial County? But, that is a relatively small sliver of the state. Not enough (IMO) for you to say that the state is "extremely dependent" on Lake Mead. Not sure what you're basing your claims upon.....
TugboatEng
Marine/Ocean
It's extremely important to California's energy laundering scheme.
Not Lake Mead, per se, but its level is certainly indicative of the health of the Colorado River itself, for which SoCal, which you live in is dependent on.
[URL unfurl="true" said:
TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list
- Thread starter
- #56
I think the issue is a little more difficult... California is in the position where their allocation of the water from the Columbia Colorado river is a high priority. If the situation remains the same, I can see in the future where the federal government may have to change this agreement... as a 'force majeure' causing a change to their water agreement. They need Lake Mead for water supply as well as Hydro power (a really clean source). I don't have a clue about how this will end. There are also international repercussions...
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
That's a new one on me. I never knew that California had an allocation from the Columbia River. I suspect dik means the Colorado, but maybe Canadians don't know the geography well.
- Thread starter
- #58
- Thread starter
- #59
I wonder how many other documents like this are out there? ![[pipe]](/data/assets/smilies/pipe.gif "[pipe] [pipe]")
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
GregLocock
Automotive
I'm just looking at the 1982 paper, it's pretty good.
There's a lot there, including a pretty good estimate of CO2 ppm and temp (fig 3 p7), and hence a pretty good estimate of CS, and figure demonstrating that GCMs tend to give higher estimates of CS than 2 other approaches(muffled laughter) fig 5 p9. Actually on further reading we're about in line with their high fossil fuel use case, so far as CO2 ppm (417), but I think that puts their temperature estimate about 0.2 high, so not quite as good as I'd thought, but significantly better than CMIP6.
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
There's a lot there, including a pretty good estimate of CO2 ppm and temp (fig 3 p7), and hence a pretty good estimate of CS, and figure demonstrating that GCMs tend to give higher estimates of CS than 2 other approaches(muffled laughter) fig 5 p9. Actually on further reading we're about in line with their high fossil fuel use case, so far as CO2 ppm (417), but I think that puts their temperature estimate about 0.2 high, so not quite as good as I'd thought, but significantly better than CMIP6.
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
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