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Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VII 21

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dik

dik

Structural
Apr 13, 2001
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-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik
 
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Happy New Year to everyone...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik
 
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Great, let's shift from temperature to heat in our discussions. Real numbers.
 
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I'll leave the heat side to you, bearing in mind that a 0.01 deg C rise in temperature of the oceans is equivalent in heat energy to 10 deg C in the atmosphere, you'll be able to get any number that is convenient, and no way of knowing what is right - we simply don't have the data .

Meanwhile, I've been banging on about urban heat islands (another heat effect!). Why it matters is that if you try and use the current temperature record and CO2 record to work out the climate sensitivity (CS), if you use data with lots of heating put in by cities, you'll overestimate CS, overestimate CO2's influence and overestimate the reduction in temperature seen by reducing CO2.

And luckily here we are - NA's trend in the last 50 years is 40% driven by UHI not CO2

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
 
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Heat or temperature... does't much matter... similar effects. We'll see what this year brings.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik
 
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I couldn't find it on Fox...[ponder]

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik
 
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I wonder why people think building cities in known flood plains, surrounded by known flood plains, is not going to have consequences? Quick! Give that kid a jar of gasoline and some matches!

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
 
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...maybe because governments that get donations from rich property developers allow it to happen. There was a time when it didn't happen.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik
 
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I wonder why people think building cities in known flood plains, surrounded by known flood plains, is not going to have consequences?
Click to expand...

Some flood plains like the Nile river valley have fertile soil replenished by the floods, resulting in highly productive farmlands that support feeding a large population. People have historically needed to live near food and commerce centers; there's lots of reasons for living near the oceans, while "empty" places like the Sahara and Sonoran deserts stay empty. This predates property developers.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list
 
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Some flood plains like the Nile river valley have fertile soil replenished by the floods, resulting in highly productive farmlands that support feeding a large population.
Click to expand...

It did until the Aswan High Dam was built. Now all the fertile soil is trapped behind the dam, and the Nile river valley is barren. Typical of man's attempts to control and improve upon the natural systems. The unintended consequences of acting without understanding are typically devastating. You'd think we'd learn to gather adequate factual data before charging ahead with half-baked 'solutions' to problems that may or may not exist, but apparently many either haven't learned that lesson, or just don't care, as long as they can make lots of money off of it (Yeah, I'm looking at you, Al Gore).

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10
 
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That was after millions of people wound up living there and got flooded out every year.
Click to expand...

So, instead of doing the ecologically sound thing, they did the convenient thing, and destroyed the ecosystem. They tried to control nature, rather than adapt to it, and made a huge mess, for the people and the ecosystem. Now they're making the same blunder with temperature/climate.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10
 
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They tried to control nature, rather than adapt to it, and made a huge mess, for the people and the ecosystem.
Click to expand...

And the alternative was to uproot millions of people and move into the desert? We're talking about moving 80% of Cairo out of the delta?

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list
 
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People that build in a flood plain, especially one that "got flooded out every year" should expect everything they build to be washed away. If they don't want it to be washed away, they should not build in a flood plain. Again, picking a fight with natural Earth processes is an expensive battle that we're always going to lose, one way or another.

Rod Smith, P.E., The artist formerly known as HotRod10
 
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No one starts off with a 1000-yr plan that says "we're going to have 10 million people living here 950 years from today, so we should plan our village with that in mind." Inevitably, the people that wind up living in a bad spot get to vote out politicians that tell them they were stupid for building their houses in a flood plain, and vote in politicians that promise to build a dam to stop the flooding.

We all "know" that's stupid, but people are, in general, not great thinkers or planners. If anything, human stubbornness tends to keep them stuck in those situations; few actually say, "WTF, this is crazy" and go find greener pastures.


No different than finding that median retirement savings for 65-yr olds is only around $160k; the "safe withdrawal rate" of 4% would allow $6400/yr withdrawal from those savings. These people didn't "plan" to have only $6400/yr of "play" money, did they?

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list
 
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true, they don't. They set up shop somewhere convenient for a bunch of different reasons. Then they stay and adjust to the annual flooding (like the Egyptians did for thousands of years) or they move.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.
 
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We have them here in Tiburon California. 100 years ago they built a sea wall and it's deteriorating. Now, the wall needs to be rebuilt because of climate change?!. Now it's the duty of the taxpayers to rebuild the sea wall to protect the most expensive houses in the world because it's our fault for climate change.
 
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how is the sea wall any different to any other social amenity (like a road) ? So it needs to be repaired and rebuilt ... SOP, no?

presumably the local taxes account for some of this localised expense ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.
 
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