Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part VIII 9

[dik]

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-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

Yup, in about 2027 persistent outages and increasingly expensive electricity will give one party or the other a chance to seize the initiative and propose a realistic (and probably taxpayer funded) energy policy. At the moment the energy companies aren't doing maintenance on their coal plants, so they are increasingly unreliable and being pulled out of service even earlier than scheduled. It's no skin off their nose, when the renewables are running the market price for power is close to zero (as I speak, 2c /kWh), or even negative, so it isn't worth running the coal generators , and of course when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing across the entire country then they make a fortune running gas peakers/batteries at anything up to $15/kWh.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[BridgeSmith]

Why you think all of these capitalistic entities are going to suddenly become altruistic in the 11th hour a few decades from now is beyond me.

It's not altruism, it's capitalism, i.e., when fossil fuels become scarce, they become expensive, and are replaced by less expensive alternatives. Artificially increasing the price, through onerous regulations, or artificially creating scarcity, by banning the use of certain energy sources, just makes all energy more expensive, and costs tax money to enforce the regulations and bans.

 

[hokie66]

Australian politicians are the worst of all. The continent has plentiful supplies of coal and gas, but will soon have no power plants to use it. Plenty of uranium, but not the political will to use it. No automobile manufacturing, so totally dependent on imports. No or little manufacturing capability for solar, battery, wind...so all that stuff is imported as well. Without China, we are sunk. With China, we are sunk.

 

[CWB1]

in 50 years we would have zero

That claim has been around since the 19th century, always just a couple decades away yet here we are. Personally I'd rather govt address real issues that exist today rather than go looking for ones that may exist some day. Its not like we're trillions in the red with crumbling infrastructure or other pressing issues.

 

[Tomfh]

Australian politicians are the worst of all. The continent has plentiful supplies of coal and gas, but will soon have no power plants to use it. Plenty of uranium, but not the political will to use it.

We get the politicians we deserve. The public has bought into the prevailing climate dogma, and politicians follow that lead. If the clear majority of the public said priority 1 (ahead of being a climate goodie two shoes) is energy security, we would see a different scenario. I suspect we need to hit the wall before people start to wake up.

Yup, in about 2027 persistent outages and increasingly expensive electricity will give one party or the other a chance to seize the initiative and propose a realistic (and probably taxpayer funded) energy policy.

What sort of policy would be an option in your view, assuming we'd come to a real crunch?

 

[TugboatEng]

That's where the pessimism comes in. If we ever get to a "real crunch" the money will be gone and there will be nothing left to get the old infrastructure going again. Policy won't be of any help.

 

[GregLocock]

Tomfh- I looked at it in this thread.

https://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=492616

Basically, even an expensive ($10B/GW) nuclear reactor is cheaper at supplying baseload power than renewables+battery storage. The quoted price for SMRs are a lot less than expensive nuclear (about half), but of course, the usual FUD is being spread around. If you have to go non nuclear then using natural gas peakers is cheaper than batteries and the massive overbuild of renewables and transmission lines that is needed for a solar/wind/storage system. I haven't worked out exactly what mix of natural gas, wind and solar and short term storage is cheapest, but I see no sign, ever, that offshore wind makes sense, it always costs a lot and its output correlates strongly with that of nearby onshore wind. Unfortunately due to several rather daft policies natural gas is, and will be, in short supply on the eastern seaboard, so a change is needed there as well.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[SwinnyGG]

That claim has been around since the 19th century

I very much appreciate it when people parse a phrase out of context to reinforce a claim I never made. Thanks.

If we ever get to a "real crunch" the money will be gone and there will be nothing left to get the old infrastructure going again. Policy won't be of any help.

Uhhhhh yeah. So, you do get it. That's a different phrasing of the exact same idea I just typed one post ago.

I think our current approach with hard deadlines for decarbonization is worse than doing nothing.

No one actually thinks the 'deadlines' (they aren't really, but I'm quite sure you only read the bold headlines based on your opinions) are realistic - but in order to change the entire energy economy, aggressive goals must be set.

A fundamental change in the way humans extract energy from their environment must happen eventually - we can argue about whether it needs to be in the next century or the next millennia, but it's an absolute certainty.

 

[TugboatEng]

Not a headline. California has banned the sale of gas powered cars in state starting in 2035.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/g...-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/

That's a deadline, not a headline. It's going to require substantial carbon investment in order to achieve. By executive order, too.

 

[dik]

Not only how they extract it, but how they use it. There could be big changes coming up, like it or not.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[SwinnyGG]

Not a headline. California has banned the sale of gas powered cars in state starting in 2035.

No one, including the executive who issued that order, actually thinks that's going to happen.

It's an aggressive goal in an attempt to drive the adoption of new technology the 'right' direction.

This thinking you're espousing makes me think you've never raised children or done anything difficult in your entire life.

 

[TugboatEng]

So what is going to happen? Are auto manufacturers just going to ignore the law?

Espousing? I have to listen to radio commercials daily telling me not to use my washing machine during the hours I'm normally home and awake. We nearly exceeded the grid capacity during last summer. Many green initiatives such as cold ironing ships in port have to be suspended when California's demand gets high. California is about to turn off 9% of its generation capacity in 2 years. California has no new generation projects in the pipeline.

It's not an aggressive goal. It's regressive.

 

[SwinnyGG]

So what is going to happen? Are auto manufacturers just going to ignore the law?

The law will get changed when the timeline becomes untenable.

We both know that you know that.

 

[dik]

Do you really think that will improve with time?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

That might depend on how things are in 2035...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

The only thing that's going to change by 2035 is that used gas cars will be too expensive for the people that can't afford electric cars.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

The law will get changed when the timeline becomes untenable.

Yup. Just look what happened in Denmark. The government started implementing farming legislation to curb emissions that would have destroyed the farming industry. Nothing motivates someone to vote like a threat to their livelihood. Now, one election later, a new pro-farming party is the MAJORITY in their legislature. LOL.

The same thing will happen here in California if they really try to ban gas powered cars. Legislation like this is just "virtue signaling" from the legislature and the governor. But, as soon as it becomes politically expedient to do so, they will 100% flip and claim they never supported such draconian legislation.

 

[rb1957]

"That might depend on how things are in 2035 ..." ... no, it will depend on how things are in 2035.

If (in the world of rainbows and unicorns) we've made a seamless transition to electric cars then gas powered cars will be banned. And presumably gas powered cars will be shipped off to the 3rd world, or scrap yards will get really busy (or just possibly, people will figure out how to convert them, efficiently, to EVs).

If in the world we anticipate, then the law will get changed, maybe to 2050, maybe never.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[dik]

In the coming years... there will likely be a few 'slip ups'. We're in new territory, perhaps.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Electric cars and fossil fuel power are not going to solve much...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik