Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part X 13

[dik]

For earlier thread, see:

thread1618-496010
thread1618-496614
thread1618-497017
thread1618-497239
thread1618-497988
thread1618-498967
thread1618-501135
thread1618-504850
thread1618-506948

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So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

It seems like you are advocating a 400% increase in CO2 to yield a "we will see reduction" within the next 50 years vs our ability to absolutely reduce our CO2 production by 60% within the next 50 years. Your goal is something bigger than CO2 reduction. That is obvious.

 

[dik]

I'm not advocating any increase in CO₂, and would like to see a reduction. With possible 'tipping points' I don't think you should be looking at time periods of 50 years.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Yes, you are advocating an increase in CO2 because you expect us to replace 100 years worth it fossil fuel infrastructure in 10 years using fossil fuel infrastructure. That will spike our fossil fuels consumption. If there is a tipping point that doesn't seem to be your concern.

 

[dik]

Sorry guy, I'm not advocating an increase in CO₂. Things are going to have to change, in the use of fossil fuels, to get the reduction.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Yes, the change is shifting from coal to gas. Shifting from fossil fuels to renewables isn't helping. Remember, even solar cells have a 20 year payoff with only a 25 year life expectancy. How is that a win?

 

[dik]

Maybe people have to cut back on their use of power? I don't think there is an easy solution.

Solar cells are a work in progress, albeit maybe not fast enough.

"The findings appear in the journal Matter, in a paper by MIT research scientist Shijing Sun, MIT professors, Moungi Bawendi, John Fisher, and Tonio Buonassisi, who is also a principal investigator at the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART), and 16 others from MIT, Germany, Singapore, Colorado, and New York.

Perovskites are a broad class of materials characterized by the way atoms are arranged in their layered crystal lattice. These layers, described by convention as A, B, and X, can each consist of a variety of different atoms or compounds. So, searching through the entire universe of such combinations to find the best candidates to meet specific goals — longevity, efficiency, manufacturability, and availability of source materials — is a slow and painstaking process, and largely one without any map for guidance.

“If you consider even just three elements, the most common ones in perovskites that people sub in and out are on the A site of the perovskite crystal structure,” which can each easily be varied by 1-percent increments in their relative composition, Buonassisi says. “The number of steps becomes just preposterous. It becomes very, very large” and thus impractical to search through systematically. Each step involves the complex synthesis process of creating a new material and then testing its degradation, which even under accelerated aging conditions is a time-consuming process."

https://news.mit.edu/2021/prevoskite-lifetime-solar-0330

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Ok, so we admit that solar cells are a work in progress. Regardless they are certainly not a solution. They have a marginal payoff within their life expectancy and that doesn't include the support technology that doesn't even exist yet.

The rest of your post doesn't have any substance worth commenting on.

Yes, people need to cut consumption but the greening of the grid is leading to the opposite result.

 

[TugboatEng]

There was no geoengineering 14k years ago when our Earth has a maximum ice level...

 

[dik]

but, we've accomplished in decades, what previously took millennia.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[hokie66]

On that we agree. Our accomplishments in the 20th century, and the first part of the 21st, are amazing.

 

[dik]

There may be an unanticipated 'down side' to our progress...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

Or there may not be. What a stupid statement. How does it progress engineering solutions to climate change?

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[CWB1]

then natural gas is not the worst of the fossil fuels

Depends who you ask. Methane has a low carbon content so combustion produces little PM or smog, but is often claimed to be the worst for the ozone layer.

There was no geoengineering 14k years ago when our Earth has a maximum ice level...

Unless you believe in ancient aliens or the various theories about Atlantis, Egypt, etc.

I'm a bit surprised we haven't seen any accusations of climate change causing OceanGate's sinking yet.

 

[dik]

Something for the US to emulate:

"China is shoring up its position as the world leader in renewable power and potentially outpacing its own ambitious energy targets, a report has found.

China is set to double its capacity and produce 1,200 gigawatts of energy through wind and solar power by 2025, reaching its 2030 goal five years ahead of time, according to the report by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO that tracks operating utility-scale wind and solar farms as well as future projects in the country."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Not just the ozone layer; it is a much worse greenhouse gas than CO₂ is.

"Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas. It is the second-most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2). Although methane is emitted in smaller quantities than carbon dioxide, its global warming potential is around 25 times that of CO2. This means that it is more effective in trapping heat. Fortunately, methane has a short lifespan – emissions only last for about 10–12 years in the atmosphere. Making methane reductions now will have a significant impact in our lifetimes."

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

@Greg... "Or there may not be. What a stupid statement. How does it progress engineering solutions to climate change?"

Did you really make that statement?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

That was malfeasance of another sort...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Further to the deforestation comment earlier:

"Despite global commitments to halt the loss of tropical forests, the world lost 10% more primary rainforest in 2022 than it did the year before.

Why it matters: The world's tropical rainforests are a vast terrestrial carbon sink, but they are in jeopardy from logging, agricultural expansion and the effects of climate change, which is altering precipitation patterns."

https://www.axios.com/2023/06/27/deforestation-hot-spots-in-2022

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Future of fossil fuels?

"DNV, a major global risk management company, has come to the common conclusion that solar PV power will get so cheap that it will eventually dominate new electricity capacity and production. “In 2050, solar PV will be in unassailable position as the cheapest source of new electricity globally,” the company stated in its annual global energy report. Naturally, some would say that this will happen well before 2050, and is already starting to happen, but the “unassailable” part is on the way still.

To put that word into numbers, DNV expects coal to have 4% of the market by then and fossil gas to have 8% market share. And that’s regarding electricity generation! DNV’s not talking about new power installation capacity with those figures. By 2050, DNV expects 70% of the world’s electricity to be coming from variable renewables (wind and solar) and expects fossil fuels to account for just 10% of electricity production."

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/06/2...-cheapest-source-of-electricity-in-world-dnv/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

I'm a bit surprised we haven't seen any accusations of climate change causing OceanGate's sinking yet.

It was the additional depth due to sea level rise that exceeded the hull's pressure rating.