Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XI 10

[dik]

For earlier threads, see:
thread1618-496010
thread1618-496614
thread1618-497017
thread1618-497239
thread1618-497988
thread1618-498967
thread1618-501135
thread1618-504850
thread1618-506948
thread1618-507973


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

They both contribute... the watervapour from the volcano has little effect in increasing the oceans temperature... maybe a little, but not much... just another red herring...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Who told you that?

 

[SwinnyGG]

the watervapour from the volcano has little effect in increasing the oceans temperature... maybe a little, but not much... just another red herring...

Incorrect. The effect has been evaluated and quantified via scientific study. Estimates are that the volcano 'fallout' will have a statistically significant effect.

 

[dik]

I maybe stand corrected... I would have thought the effect was small and of a short time... thanks. Do you have a source?

"Volcanic eruptions that occur underwater have a minimal effect on the temperature of the oceans. Dr. May Ver, a lecturer in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of British Columbia says that the volume of ocean water above the volcano has a cooling effect. It would take an extremely large eruption to make a difference, but those are very rare. Sub-marine eruptions are also unlikely to release CO2 to the atmosphere and contribute to global warming."

"Volcanoes can impact climate change. During major explosive eruptions huge amounts of volcanic gas, aerosol droplets, and ash are injected into the stratosphere. Injected ash falls rapidly from the stratosphere -- most of it is removed within several days to weeks -- and has little impact on climate change. But volcanic gases like sulfur dioxide can cause global cooling, while volcanic carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, has the potential to promote global warming."

"Volcanic eruptions are often discussed in relation to climate change because they release CO2 (and other gases) into our atmosphere. However, human contributions to the carbon cycle are more than 100 times those from all the volcanoes in the world - combined."

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[SwinnyGG]

The Tonga eruption was very, very large. Conventions about the normal 'average' volcanic eruption do not apply.

The value Greg posted about (roughly 6% increase in total atmospheric water vapor from the eruption) seem to be relatively consistent across all sources.

 

[dik]

The effect is larger than I thought, but maybe small in the long run... Every bit helps...

"The HTHH blast sent water vapor and other gases to at least 40 kilometers (25 miles) above Earth’s surface and punched through the boundary of the stratosphere. In this atmospheric layer, cool, heavy air rests below less dense warmer air. Because there is little turbulence to stir the system, “you can get a perturbation lasting for, in an atmospheric sense, quite a long time,” said Stuart Jenkins, an atmospheric physicist at the University of Oxford and lead author of the new study. The eruption boosted the water vapor content of the stratosphere by 10%–15%, according to the study.

Using reconstructions of global climate, Jenkins and his colleagues established the monthly baseline conditions for the 7 years prior to the eruption, then simulated the effect of water vapor in the stratosphere for 7 years after the event. The researchers assumed that the injected water vapor would settle out of the stratosphere in that time. Their model parameters are conservative, Jenkins said, and assumed the volcanic plume spread widely between altitudes and latitudes.

The model calculated the monthly change in Earth’s energy balance caused by the eruption and showed that water vapor could increase the average global temperature by up to 0.035°C over the next 5 years. That’s a large anomaly for a single event, but it’s not outside the usual level of noise in the climate system, Jenkins said. But in the context of the Paris Agreement, it’s a big concern."

https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Another impact of climate change:

"More than 7,000 flights have been impacted by the severe summer storms that are pounding the eastern United States.

Nine major airports now have ground stops, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Washington DC’s three major airports, New York City’s three major airports, and Philadelphia International Airport.

Delta Airlines had around 350 cancellations, or 10% of its schedule, and more than 800 flight delays, according to Flight Aware. Overall, more than 1,300 US flights have been cancelled and at least another 5,900 are delayed, according to data from Flight Aware."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/07/business/flight-delays-cancellations-delta-southwest/index.html

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[hokie66]

Some years have more cancellations than others. The worst years had big things happen other than weather, e.g. pandemic in 2020.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/186296/cancellations-of-us-air-carriers-since-1988/

 

[TugboatEng]

In this atmospheric layer, cool, heavy air rests below less dense warmer air. Because there is little turbulence to stir the system, “you can get a perturbation lasting for, in an atmospheric sense, quite a long time,”

I know SwinnyGG discounted the idea of a boundary layer with prejudice but here is an example. Maybe there is less mixing between layers than many climate scientists assume?

 

[GregLocock]

If you've ever seen a total eclipse you'll have noticed it gets cooler pretty quickly.

But this 1 deg C bump from the volcano is not obvious in a timeframe of months after the eruption started in Dec 2021.

(better link)
So that is weird. Maybe it's lost in the noise.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[dik]

Somebody is making plans... Who have thought the Fins would do this...

"Rosqvist projects that greenery will be instrumental in averting future floods, considering the expense of updating old pipe systems. With roughly 200,000 trees in parks and 30,000 lining streets, Helsinki appears relatively well-prepared. ‘We’ll need to set aside more space for green structures in zoning,’ she acknowledged.

This autumn, the city will test 17 parking spaces’ conversion to green squares in various neighbourhoods to examine how effective they are in flood prevention. Rosqvist remarked on the difficulties of increasing vegetation due to the restrictions posed by underground infrastructure. ‘At the same time, we know that trees do the best job at absorbing water, delaying the flow of storm waters, provide shade and cool the air through evaporation,’ said Rosqvist.

Greenery is already part of Helsinki’s urban fabric. Examples include the vegetated roof of the urban development division and tram rails lined with grass to aid rainwater absorption.

The climate crisis will test the city’s infrastructure, including hospitals and care homes. Helsinki is assessing the cooling capacities of these buildings during heatwaves. ‘I’d say that we’re in a hurry and need more resources. Luckily discussion on the topic has increased in recent times, and I’m hopeful we can make progress even quite quickly,’ Rosqvist concluded."

https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/08/07/climate-crisis-finland-plans-for-the-worst/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[hokie66]

I would say that almost all cities in developed countries which are on the sea are doing similar planning to that of Helsinki. Finns are not leading the world, they are just a small part of the efforts to adapt.

 

[TugboatEng]

Finland produces very high quality engineered products. I hope they don't squander any of their talent on climate change.

 

[hokie66]

I wouldn't worry, Tug. City planners, gardeners, and architects don't design or make the stuff you need.

 

[dik]

I used to have a couple of their rifles... one a Sako 243 bull barrel that I tuned up... could shoot 0.3 minutes, and an Ithica LSA55 (made by Tikka) that shot 0.6 minutes 'out of the box'. The latter was my favourite 'moose gun'... got about 8 moose with it... vastly underpowered, but worked great!

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

China leads world in per capita abandonment of Paris CO2 targets

https://www.heritage.org/global-pol...ement-making-us-efforts-painful-and-pointless

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[dik]

Those that are following it are few and far between.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55222890

to see how we are failing:

https://www.nrdc.org/stories/paris-climate-agreement-everything-you-need-know#sec-agreements

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Just a heads up...

"The world got its first preview last month of what summer will be like at 1.5 degrees of global warming — a threshold that scientists warn the planet should stay under, yet one that it has flown increasingly close to in recent years.

The average global temperature in July, the hottest month on record by far, was around 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial era that ended in the mid-to-late 1800s, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported Tuesday.

The announcement came after a series of deadly heat waves and remarkable record-breaking temperatures for several continents, as well as unprecedented ocean heat around the globe. Copernicus scientists say it’s the first summer month that has surpassed 1.5 degrees, offering a glimpse of future summers."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/world/july-climate-record-paris-agreement

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Even the antarctic is giving up the battle... It could take millennia to fix the stuff we've done in a few decades.

"“It’s going to take decades if not centuries for these things to recover. There’s no quick fix to replacing this ice,” said Caroline Holmes, polar climate scientist at the British Antarctic Survey and one of the study’s co-authors.

“It will certainly take a long time, even if it’s possible,” she said at a briefing with journalists.

This year’s sea ice minimum is 20 percent lower than the average over the last 40 years, equivalent to a sea ice loss nearly 10 times the area of New Zealand, said Tim Naish, director of the Antarctic Research Centre at New Zealand’s Victoria University of Wellington, who was not a participant in the study.

“In some cases, we are getting close to tipping points, which once crossed will lead to irreversible changes with unstoppable consequences for future generations,” Naish said."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/8/no-quick-fix-to-reverse-astonishing-antarctic-sea-ice-loss

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

Jim Skea, the new head of the UN's IPCC, said it's not helpful to imply that a temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius is an existential threat to humanity. He calls for a balanced approach to the climate change debate.



Cheers

Greg Locock


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