Ukraine airline crash Tehran 16

[LittleInch]

Fairly horrific video showing what looks like a major fire and a spiral into the ground.

With the current situation don't know if well ever get to see what happened here.

New plane 737 800.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/08/iran-plane-crash-ukraine-boeing-180-tehran

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

 

[IRstuff]

Certainly, an "accident" at the state level, since Iran's government unlikely wanted to escalate, but at the missile, that's a different question/answer.

This isn't that different than any confrontations we've had with Russia, China, or North Korea; while the state government has certain desires and calculations, one can never be absolutely certain that every individual below the state level will toe the party line.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

[Comcokid]

All ads-b transponders on the aircraft stopped transmitting simultaneously to the second 2 minutes after takeoff while the plane was still in the air and climbing. News indicates that Iran has already bulldozed the crash site after removing debris using heavy machinery the day of the crash. It is not known if any investigation of the debris was made in-situ. There are some stories that Iran claims the flight data boxes are damaged. Flight data boxes possibly being sent to Russia and not Ukraine as Iran does not want the US to examine the flight recorders. Iran may also be having a power struggle internally as IRGC (Republican Guards) members are reported to being arrested.

 

[VEBill]

"...could have been accidental..."

Foreseeing the possibility of all this, I carefully wrote "accidental / [highlight #EDD400]negligent[/highlight]", in a vain attempt to preempt causing a tedious discussion about the semantics.

If anyone else used the word "accidentally" by itself, it would be reasonable to interpret it in the broadest meaning.

I very much doubt that anyone intended to shoot down a civilian airliner.

 

[LionelHutz]

accident - an unfortunate incident that happens unexpectedly and unintentionally, typically resulting in damage or injury.

I will stand by what I posted. I highly doubt the missile managing to get into the air was an accident, because I highly doubt the missile launched unexpectedly or unintentionally.

 

[VEBill]

BBC: Iran says it 'unintentionally' shot down plane

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51073621

Edit to add: That's Breaking News

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

There have been loads of inadvertent launches in the last 60 odd years by mill all round the world.

I have first hand seen an inadvertent launch of a rapier missile by UK mil on Benbecular Ranges. Ended up in the bottom of a trench with a Brigadier on top of me. 3 gunners unfortunately badly burned because they were reloading the rail on the other side when it went off.

There are plenty of missiles come off the rails of aircraft both in the air and on the ground.

In fact they are still looking for a live AMRAAM which was released over Estonia in 2018 by a Spanish Eurofighter.

And a mate of a mate was finished flying Harrier after not flipping the trigger cover over after doing a strafing run on a range and pulled up and accidently fired a 1 second burst with a nose pitch up of 10 degrees pointing towards Ireland. Spent a very stressed week waiting for any casualty reports and they calculated the canon rounds had gone across the whole of the UK and splashed in the Irish sea. He left Harrier and had a successful career on the Tornado dropping bombs.

And when I was up instructing in Inverness it was a regular occurrence that practise bombs for the Tain range were dropped outside the range. "Lossie radar mark my position tell the boys to go and look there" "errr standby" change of voice from a child to an adult "thank you sir!" crate of beer turns up the next week at the flying school with a student with a thankyou card with nothing written in it. Nothing more said about it.

Quick google search for accidental missile launch shows Taiwan taking out a fishing boat with a carrier killer in 2016.

At least the Iranians have admitted what's happened and the family's can have some closure without years of spouting.

 

[LittleInch]

Confirmed now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oting-down-ukrainian-airliner-unintentionally

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

 

[zeusfaber]

One of those wretched things that happens when nobody's quite certain whether they're pretending that they're at war, or pretending that they're not at war.

You'd like to think that the level of risk depends on the ratio of professionalism to zeal within the force whose operator is holding the trigger - I don't know if anyone's done the analysis to see whether that theory holds true.

 

[r13]

Iran, the US, the airline, all share some blames.

 

[hokie66]

As long as blame is being attached, Iran shot, the plane was made in the US, the airline was Ukrainian...but Russia made the missiles, and Canada, Ukraine, France and some other countries allowed their citizens to be in Iran. A stretch all around, don't you think? The shooter is the fellow.

 

[miningman]

Hokie , why stop there?? All the aluminum, copper and other metals were mined somewhere.. WE miners get blamed for so much else, we might as well take some of the blame here.

 

[r13]

hokie66,

I fault the US and the airline is because 1) the US took out a foreign leader (a bad guy) by murder, and continued to openly threaten it's enemy (Iran) for further military actions, causing escalated tension in the region; 2) the airline's decision to flight "as usual" at an unusual time was a gravely move without caution.

I agree, Iran-US problem is the word's problem.

 

[miningman]

Retired, this thread is becoming a bit political and we all know that we cant change other persons beliefs. Having said that , I am no admirer of Mr Trump or Conrad Black but IMO the attached has a lot of validity. And I cant help but feel that if Chamberlain had a stronger backbone inn 1938 ..... something like the backbone Thatcher showed in 1982, then the 1940s might have been an improvement over what actually occurred. There's absolutely no point in having a military if you're not prepared to use force when necessary.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-the-world-is-a-better-place-without-soleimani

 

[davidbeach]

I’ve also long held the opinion that Chamberlain was wrong in 1938. But reading I’ve been doing lately leads me the believe that Britain was far better prepared for the air war over southern England in 1940-41 than they would have been a year or two earlier.

 

[r13]

miningman,

Sorry to make this thread political, but...

I used to be a demarcate leaning person, voted for Clinton, Obama, then came 2016, Mr. Trump. I am still his supporter, but somehow I don't like the US's movement on Granada, Panama, Iraq, now Iran. How about make moves on Russia and China? This imbalance in treatment encourages countries like North Korea, Iran (China, Pakistan, India, Israel in earlier dates) to compete for nukes under the faulty claim "to stop the aggressiveness of American Imperialism". And other world powers gladly to provide support for their own country's gain. Yes, strong hand sometimes is necessary for long term good. But in the US the President changes hands every 4-8 years, very difficult to maintain consistent foreign policies...sad.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

I wouldn't be surprised if all of the people on the aircraft held Iranian passports or could do due grandparents apart from the crew.

Its a pretty regular pax mix going to Kiev to link with that flight on all that fly into Kiev.

Anyway it seems I was wrong and it was an intended release. Which makes it all the harder for those of us that fly civilian aircraft.

As the previous poster says its just plain sad that life is wasted.

On a note I have never worked there but people I know that have say that Iran is a lovely place with lovely warm people who go out of their way to be helpful and friendly. The authorities are not so warm but the locals that you interact with are just plain nice.

Anyway to put some faces to those that are not with us anymore.

Here is the Ukrainian crew of the aircraft.

May they rest in Peace.

 

[Sparweb]

We won't get anywhere with the political side of this.

There is a difficult engineering problem to solve, that we can look at, and our talents (as engineers, not diplomats) are better suited to dealing with.
[ul]
[li]How does one conduct an investigation with integrity when actions have been taken to undermine the investigation?[/li]
[li]How does an investigator communicate the value of examining wreckage to persons in power that would rather bury it?[/li]
[li]Are the investigators themselves facing risks when they pursue an investigation of this kind?[/li]
[li]Will the world at large (or more to the point, the families of the victims) accept the results of any investigation possible now?[/li]
[/ul]
Questions like these and more are what concern me the most.

As for the state of the wreckage:
[ul]
[li]The debris has already been removed from the site.[/li]
[li]The crash site has not been closed or isolated.[/li]
[li]The FDR and CVR have been found but have not been protected.[/li]
[li]The FDR and CVR may or may not be turned over to competent authorities.[/li]
[/ul]
And as for investigating the decision to fire:
[ul]
[li]Who actually gave the command?[/li]
[li]Was a human decision actually made?[/li]
[li]Were safeguards removed from the launch system?[/li]
[li]Did the operator have adequate training?[/li]
[li]How was the target identified?[/li]
[li]How do revolutionary guard installations distinguish civilian targets?[/li]
[li]Did the delayed take-off confuse the identification?[/li]
[li]How do airports, airlines, military, and revolutionary guard communicate in Iran?[/li]
[/ul]
And, of course... "What else are they lying about?"

And on the Ukrainian airline's side:
[ul]
[li]Did the airline know that the US and Iran had started shooting at each other?[/li]
[li]If they knew, did they do a threat assessment?[/li]
[li]Did the aircraft fly a normal departure route?[/li]
[li]Do airliners require special equipment to maintain friendly IDENT in Iranian airspace?[/li]
[li]Was the airliner's ADS-B working properly at the time?[/li]
[/ul]

I figure about half of my questions will never be answered.
I don't think it's safe for anyone to be flying anything over Iran right now, nor will be for the near future.
And yet - there are dozens of Canadians in a desperate rush to get to Iran to investigate, to grieve, to put the pieces of their lives back together.
The situation is still dangerous, and may be getting even more dangerous soon.

http://www.sparweb.ca

 

[RolMec]

I do so much grieve all these people, their relatives, friends. My sincerest condolences to them.

To find out, what happened and how to prevent something similar:

Put faces to Sparwebs (& others) questions, form a team which is not shy to stand up out.
Demand competent and involved partners in the investigation.
Make it public, all of it.
Question everything and everyone, no frills for no one.
Anything hindering, anyone hindering: Make that public, and ask the question loudly.



Roland Heilmann

 

[CWB1]

•How does one conduct an investigation with integrity when actions have been taken to undermine the investigation?

Good luck with that, in most of the world any attempt to deviate from the official story results in your disappearance and/or reeducation.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

The Ukrainians are pretty much the experts for this sort of thing in Europe along with the Dutch.

Its not been that long since the KLM was shot down over Ukrainian territory.

And to be honest the situation in Ukraine just now is not that dissimilar to Iran. Plenty of bullets go down the range every day.