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European Energy Crisis 4

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SSCon

Mechanical
Feb 16, 2020
79
The energy crisis looks like it's going to develop into a full-blown catastrophe, yet there is very little media attention. For those not aware, natural gas & electricity prices are at record levels and we're only one week into the "heating season".

UK gas prices reached £4/Therm, equivalent to $54/MMBtu (no I didn't misconvert that, but I'll understand if you feel the need to double check).
screenshot.2021-10-06_w45lgp.jpg


Electricity prices are at astonishing levels right across Europe.

Ireland seems likely to be the first to fail as they're at the end of the gas supply chain and currently have the highest electricity prices.

This winter Europe will be at the mercy of the weather, mild & windy and it may be ok. But if it's cold, the level of disaster coming is hard to conceive.
 
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Okey thanks.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
 
Yes I know, but I am in luck. :)
My neighbor in the summerhouse has put in solarpanels.
I think this picture is taken before that, seem to remember the last time I was in the box there where a signs saying it had a "back feed" on his fuse box.

IMG_1197_r7vprh.jpg


And I have cleaned up the box since the electrical company did bother with it after they where finished. [mad]


“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
 
I could it is there permanent home they live there the whole year.

What was the brand of your inverter?
I have looked at some but the amount of information on them are quite high and low.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
 
Kostal they are German and have all the fancy stuff for smart grid and internet etc built in as standard.


I have the penticore plus with battery released.

And the second one is the piko iq.

I get mine from a company called mg-solar in Germany. The guy that runs it is very helpful and knows his stuff
 
[lol]
Actually that is the only one I found this far, but to be honest I haven't had much time to search, that had really good data and specifications.
I did not have the time to check where the company was from, but when I read the data sheets I thought this company must be German. [rofl2]

That's good to know, that I have at least I one referens on them, then.



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
 
We seem to have drifted off the main subject here and into the hobby forum....

The extraordinary gas spot market rates show no real signs of slowing down.

You can't blame too many people for looking at this prior to middle of this year and thinking the price is pretty steady at ~50p/therm and now over 200.

We had better hope the wind starts blowing pretty steadily...

Screenshot_2021-10-11_182520_o2ac4y.png


Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.
 
Well it's was certainly blowing good today in Sweden and Denmark.

The hobby as above is actually what's causing quite a bit of issues. The self production and consumption is killing the capital infrastructure accounts and making a mess of the min loading of the spinning assets.
 
Well I am not sure I agree the topic was European Energy Crisis and also the rising price of gas and electricity.

Maybe for UK the gas prices is the big thing, but for the rest of Europe it is a mixed bag and every kWh counts.
As I sade before the price for electricity may rice because of UK, if not joining Nord Pool at least for buying from it, meaning we who have low price mostly fossil carbon free electricity and heating need to do what we can to keep our costs down.
Maybe it is a hobby for UK but for the rest of Europe it is not.

With that said, I can ask Alistair the more specific detailed questions in the Hobby forum. ;-)
 
If Allstair's contention "that hobby (small) solar is causing capital infrastructure accounts problems", the rate structure is wrong.

My opinion
If solar is not connected to the grid in any way, the electric tariff should ignore it.
If solar is grid connected, it should get a rate for energy produced, and a fee for the use of the connection (for the use of all of the available non energy services). If government policy requires this to provide less than full cost recovery, then it is the regulators responsibility to fill the void either by cost shifting or from the public purse.

There are all sorts of ways this can work. The local utility here (Virginia USA) is no longer doing net metering, they want to meter the solar out, and meter grid power in (two separate meters, and a power suppler contract). That makes islanding your system more complicated.
 
That was one reason I thought I do this calculation just to se how it works.
Today I have without finishing my numbers but half of what I pay is static cots.
To get the electricity delivered through the line I pay 15 units of something per 1 kWh.
How much of my actual consumed "energi cost" goes to the net provider from my "power supplier" I do not know.
But if I would produce 1 kWh on to the grid.
What is it then reasonable for me to pay for getting it to a consumer?
The consumer will still have to pay 15 units of something, and I have to pay whatever a provider is paying to get the power to the costumer. [ponder]

The big problem is that the system manager need to know and be able to rely on the delivery and and have a good prediction on consumption to be able to regulate the grid, if he cant sell of the excess or buy when low there will be problems and high prices.
And there the batteries and pump storages among other things comes in.



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
 
Its because there was no main plan when it started and was too successful in some places.

It was a short term political boost but the engineering hadn't been thought about.

And they are a bit screwed where I am because we got 20 year contracts so they can't change things until they run out.

They stopped doing expansions and new farms 1st of Jan this year.
 
And one of this issues is that if you have a 5 km line with 20 houses and 10 of them go off grid you still have pay the same capital costs as if there was 20.

Which is why some places are insisting that people stay connected even if they are on a zero export contract. If they are not then the house is deemed not fit for habitation.

Nobody seems to have an answer yet.

To be honest zero export or controlled export which is demand defined by the grid manager seems a reasonable way to go. Plus everyone stays connected so all the infrastructure is maintained.

 
Which is why some places are insisting that people stay connected even if they are on a zero export contract. If they are not then the house is deemed not fit for habitation.

Well I think that is okey, but they should normally not have to put the same amount of maintenance in those lines, at least not if they are temporarily "disconected" if the property owner do not buy power.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
 
It's controling the export which is the issue.

Zero feed in to manage the grid I can't see a problem with.

Killing your inverter so you can't cover your own consumption and force you to buy electricity to sort the grid out I do have issues with.
 
Yes and as I understand it, it is because they have to much power on the grid and do not know what to do with it.
So they turn of your power output and force you to consume because they don't want to turn off a coal powerplant somewhere.
But instead they should allow you to load your batteries or have there own buffer batteries somewhere to even it out.

They either need a more flexible base power provider so they can allow all renewables on the grid unless they can store the excess power.

Still think you should get more batteries ;-)



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
 
There have been a few excess wind days reported in the midwest where the night time wholesale power cost went negative (too much wind, the windmills need to pay for their power to go into the grid). Not sure who actually pays this.

Perhaps pay wind farms that have batteries to smooth their output (or similarly sized dispatch-able batteries) a better rate?
 
Analysts noted that Ukrainian flows are tracking around 3.4 Bcf/d on average through early October – in line with the September average but down from an August average of 3.8 Bcf/d. Year-ago flows, meanwhile, tracked closer to 6 Bcf/d.

“Going forward, we model Russian imports into Europe ramping towards 17 Bcf/d through November-February,” TPH analysts said. This is largely accounting for the remaining room on the Ukrainian system, “which averaged around 7 Bcf/d in 4Q2020 should the Nord Stream 2 pipeline remain in gridlock.”

Regardless of capacity, TPH said Russia’s ability to flow incremental volumes appears likely to come down to end-of-season domestic storage balances, which have capped exports of late despite record domestic production.

As for demand, demand data across various countries appears to show demand destruction in play, according to TPH. October demand is up about 2 Bcf/d month/month at 29 Bcf/d, but lags its forecast of around 38 Bcf/d for October thus far.

European natural gas stockpiles could be completely drained over the next few months, leaving the continent wholly dependent on Russian pipeline imports if this winter turns out to be unseasonably cold in both Europe and Asia, according to an analysis from Wood Mackenzie.


Colder winter weather across the globe could raise European heating demand to 20 billion cubic meters (Bcm) and redirect up to 10.5 Bcm of cargoes from the continent to Asia. Combined, that would be greater than the 29 Bcm Wood Mackenzie anticipates would be in European storage at the end of March.

“There is a risk storage levels could drop to zero,” said Wood Mackenzie Vice President of Gas and LNG Research Massimo Di Odoardo.

If that happens, Europe would have to rely on “timely approval” of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (NS2) or increased Russian flows through Ukraine to avoid demand curtailments, according to Di Odoardo. NS2 could deliver up to 12.5 Bcm through the winter, but it is so far unclear whether the project would move forward in time. Meanwhile, Russia has shown some reluctance to provide additional pipeline shipments via Ukraine. However, Wood Mackenzie noted President Vladimir Putin has promised to stabilize the market, which could result in increased volumes on that route.

Goldman Sachs Commodities Research analysts led by Samantha Dart said the remarks by Putin and other Russian officials reiterated statements made over the past few months.

“In our view, uncertainty remains regarding potential Russian gas flows to Northwest Europe this winter,” the analysts said in a recent note to clients. Goldman expects shipments from existing pipelines to normalize from reduced levels starting in November, and NS2 will come online this winter, adding 10 Bcm of supply to the continent.

“We see symmetrical risks to both these assumptions, as the recent decline in flows to

Europe could reflect the lack of enough supply to feed both European and Russian gas storage sites and with the potential for the NS2 pipeline to bring additional

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volumes once approved,” the analysts said. “Until there is greater clarity on Russia’s gas send-outs to Europe, we expect European Union gas prices to remain volatile and skewed to the upside given the need for industrial user gas demand rationing if Russian flows remain low in November and December.”

European natural gas prices were again marked by volatility last week as panic over looming shortages continues. British and Dutch futures have been trading well above $30/MMBtu. The situation has prompted European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson to promise reforms by the end of the year to combat similar volatility in the future.

On Friday, Bloomberg reported that the European Union (EU) would explore options to purchase more supplies and protect residents from huge price spikes.

If Russian flows increase this winter, Goldman expects EU prices to decline from current levels but remain above the threshold for gas-to-oil switching of $27/MMBtu at current oil prices “until we know more about winter weather,” the analysts said. Prices could decline further, to $17 by year’s end, if weather remains average, Goldman said.

Wood Mackenzie also expects prices to ease under normal weather conditions.

The consultancy predicts European storage would reach a record low 78% of capacity, or 87 Bcm by the end of October.

To meet demand, the continent would likely need around 58 Bcm of storage, leaving about 29 Bcm stockpiled by the end of March. That is below the five-year average, but “comfortably above” record lows, according to Wood Mackenzie. And while LNG imports are likely to be limited this winter as demand remains strong in Asia, rebounds in UK and Norwegian production as well as stronger exports from Algeria and Azerbaijan are forecast to increase pipeline supply compared to summer.

Still, whether prices go up or down would depend largely on the weather.

“The sky could be the limit for European gas prices this winter,” Wood Mackenzie said.

european-union-gas-storage1011-735x1536.png


 
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