European Energy Crisis 4

[SSCon]

The energy crisis looks like it's going to develop into a full-blown catastrophe, yet there is very little media attention. For those not aware, natural gas & electricity prices are at record levels and we're only one week into the "heating season".

UK gas prices reached £4/Therm, equivalent to $54/MMBtu (no I didn't misconvert that, but I'll understand if you feel the need to double check).

Electricity prices are at astonishing levels right across Europe.

Ireland seems likely to be the first to fail as they're at the end of the gas supply chain and currently have the highest electricity prices.

This winter Europe will be at the mercy of the weather, mild & windy and it may be ok. But if it's cold, the level of disaster coming is hard to conceive.

 

[SSCon]

Batteries/ wind/ solar are not addressing the problem, they are creating the problem.

I doubt the Poles expected the EU to try to dismantle their electricity generation grid when they joined.

 

[RedSnake]

The problem with Polen and the coal mine/pit/quarry is that, it is lowering the groundwater in Czechoslovakia.
So it is not just one thing.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[1503-44]

SScon your statements do not seem to match facts. Can you substantiate your opinions about solar, batteries and the Polish electric system being dismantled.

German news DW reports quite the opposite in regards to Poland's electric grid.
Baltic states (and Poland) to decouple power grids from Russia, link to EU by 2025
Baltic states and Poland put an end to years of bickering and signed an agreement to decouple their power grids from Russia. The EU will negotiate with Russia as to how to make the transition as smooth as possible.

https://www.dw.com/en/baltic-states...ids-from-russia-link-to-eu-by-2025/a-44449454

 

[GregLocock]

Ballparkish numbers. I'll use tesla powerwalls for storgae, not that they are ideal, or cheap. This was distracting, ignore it.

Solar- Average output over the year 4 hours nameplate per day. Obviously a pure solar grid would need at least 20 hours of average demand storage, just to get through one night.

So for a 4 kWh/day house, you need a 1 kW panel, and 3.3 kWh of batteries, which would cost a little more than the panel. But, winter is coming. In winter you can only rely on an average of 1 hour of nameplate a day, ie 1 kWh from a 1 kW panel. So to deal with typical winter days you need a system with a panel that is 4 kW. The reality is that 3 dull days in a row are not unusual, so you need to be able to store at least 3 days of 4 kWh per day, which brings the battery up to 15 kWh.

So that's why storage gets to ludicrous capacities if you are relying on renewables alone. Wind is worse, and wind droughts are thousands of km across, as the Europeans are finding out. The wind is not 'always blowing somewhere'.

Speaking for myself, I do not have a 15kWh battery and a 4 kW panel, I have a 1 kW panel, a 3 kWh usable battery, and a generator, which I run almost every day in winter.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[1503-44]

So, renewables are greating the storage problem, or renewables are greating expensive electricity? Or is it that electricity would be expensive all the time, if there was no RE. The facts today are more like, When the wind blows and the sun shines, the price of electricity is cheaper.

 

[GregLocock]

When the wind blows and the sun shines, the price of electricity is cheaper. But when the renewables stop you still need the despatchable power stations that you thought you were getting rid of, and/or unfeasible amounts of storage.


Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[waross]

Thinking out of the box, and remembering that perfection is the enemy of excellence;
hoe about using renewables and excess nuclear capacity to produce hydrogen from water. hen using the energy and hydrogen to upgrade hydro-carbons to propane or butane, running on an energy available cycle.
I understand that a large part of the carbon footprint of gasoline and diesel is the hydro-carbons burned at the refinery to generate the heat to support the process.
I suppose that such a system would not be economically feasible today, but times are changing.
We are starting to see carbon taxes, and carbon taxes have the potential to change the economics of fuel production.
Yes, we would still be using some carbon based fuel, but a levels much less than today.
Two added benefits: Nuclear and renewable power would be made portable, and a by product of the production of hydrogen will be oxygen.

--------------------
Ohm's law
Not just a good idea;
It's the LAW!

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

They are working already doing exactly that.

I have a battery on my solar 6.4kwh which I am happy enough with.

I have got my place down to 250 w when we are not there. Which is basically the internet routers and heat pump on standby and the robot grass mower and fridge freezer. .


The battery can last the night. But when we are there no chance.

 

[GregLocock]

"a large part of the carbon footprint of gasoline and diesel is the hydro-carbons burned at the refinery to generate the heat"

That's about 17%, well to pump.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[itsmoked]

Greg, are you really laying out for Tesla Walls??

You can roll your own with 3X the storage for the same price and not need an internet connection.

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[GregLocock]

No way. I get lead acid AGMs for about $1600 for 3 kWh usable, 10 kWh nominal. 9 year life (I have a second string made up of the survivors from the primary strings from the last generation, 2009, and they are still usable).

Powerwall is not recommended for off grid in Australia, and certainly is not a cheap solution. I was going to put a price equation in but decided to concentrate on the multiplier you need for both generation and storage to cope with real life. The takeaway from that note is that a purist renewable solution is 4 times what you'd think just from looking at average daily consumption. I've struck out the Powerwall part in my previous post.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[itsmoked]

Roger that. Thanks.

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Power walls are pretty awful to be honest on grid as well.

Very expensive.
They can be adjusted remotely you have no say in it.
The battery chemistry is li-ion so they can go on fire.

My LiFePO4 is 6.4kWh usable cost 3500 $ good for 10 000 charge cycles it speaks to the inverter so and there are off grid inverters which it is compatible with. Zero maintenance.

Down side is max charge rate is 3.2 kW discharge 6.4 kW

It has a quite tight environmental window and if you go outside it then you charge and discharge is heavily downgraded.

 

[itsmoked]

Very expensive.
They can be adjusted remotely you have no say in it.
The battery chemistry is li-ion so they can go on fire.

100% agree and so I'd never use one! You can find lots of youtubes where someone had a wall or two installed and then discovered they couldn't turn it on because it has to talk with the utility's computers and some utilities don't have a computer or the SW to talk back to the wall.

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[1503-44]

"But when the renewables stop you still need the despatchable power stations that you thought you were getting rid of, and/or unfeasible amounts of storage."

Or load management. We know that incredible amounts of storage is not possible, therefore load management must also be part of "The Solution". When all known solutions are outside of the acceptable range, one is forced to reconsider what is acceptable. I think we are going to have to "change the chip". Solutions will only be valid across a certain range of "X".

 

[waross]

I found a study that shows an average carbon footprint of 18%, and I am not going to quibble over the difference, but that number was based on an average of 12 g CO2 eq./MJ
But that is an average of a range. The carbon intensity of crude oils ranges from 4 to 50 grams of CO2 equivalent per megajoule.
Further, some of the fields with the lightest crude flare extensively, driving their carbon and carbon equivalent numbers very high.
As we move to heavier sources, tars, and shale oils, the percentages will increase.
I don't have the numbers. but SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage) exraction drives the percentages up even higher by way of the amounts of natural gas burned to generate the steam.
Source: "the International Council on Clean Transportation" ICCT
Volumes of upstream emissions vary over a wide range that may not be adequately expressed or explained by a google search for a single percentage number.
Reduction of upstream emissions is a work in progress.
Many oilfields, both light and heavy, are emitting carbon and carbon equivalents several times greater than the overall average.


--------------------
Ohm's law
Not just a good idea;
It's the LAW!

 

[SSCon]

When Poland joined the EU nearly all their electricity came from coal, due to EU policies it is now down to 70%. The EU want it to go to zero. It's not hard, this is an explicit policy to dismantle Polands reliable electricity generators with expensive, unreliable REs. You might agree with the policy but don't pretend it isn't real.

Poland moving from the reliable/ cheap Russian grid to the unreliable/ expensive EU grid makes the opposite point you think.

Numbers for batteries have already been provided. That solar is useless in a European winter is something that should be obvious to all.

 

[RedSnake]

Well this is also a new invention instead of batteries, not sure how well it will take of though.

Azelio specializes in energy storage with electricity and heat production.
They manufacturing energy storage, which is charged by heat and provides electricity via a Stirling engine.
The technology is revolutionary in that the energy becomes controllable, which can make renewable energy available around the clock.
The energy is stored in recycled aluminum, from where it is converted into electricity and heat with a total efficiency of up to 90 percent.
The solution is scalable, environmentally friendly and cost-effective from 0.1 MW up to 100 MW.

I kind of like Stirling engines even though they are a bit tricky, I think there is a lot that can be done to develop the concept and use of them.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[RedSnake]

Poland moving from the reliable/ cheap Russian grid to the unreliable/ expensive EU grid makes the opposite point you think.

Not sure that is all true either.
This is the days prices at Nord Pool.

Polen has not the highest electrical prices in Europe and they do buy and sell to Nord Pool which this far has been a very reliable provider.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[1503-44]

SScon, AGAIN you parrot numerous Facebook hoax rumors that are not supported by German statistics or simple fact checks. Europe has southern member States that produce significant amounts of solar power during winter. Spain, France, Portugal, Germany, Italy and Greece beg to differ.

Your credibility is beginning to suffer. You have reached the 3 strike limit. Game Over.

https://factcheck.afp.com/german-solar-wind-power-did-not-fail-cold-weather

https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/...y-stop-working-due-to-weather-conditions.html