Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii 40

[3DDave]

Another wild fire sweeping through a residential area - it leads me to wonder if exterior sprinkler systems, particularly for roofs, would be sufficient to slow the progress of such fires.

I noted a multi-story apartment or hotel that was generally intact, suffering some interior fire which the sprinkler system may have stopped. The roof was untouched simply from height and the exterior which appeared to be brick - likely the windows or their frames failed in the heat. It was surrounded by ash.

As they are on the ocean the supply of water suitable to the use is well available as long as power for pumps is available. Besides electric pumps, pumps directly driven by diesel and the possibility of adding fire boats pumping water to the system seems worth considering. It's along the ocean so additional salt water should be more acceptable than fire.

 

[AZPete]

Re: sirens

Would shelter in place in a coastal town be appropriate for a tsunami?

Guessing that the typical response would be "no".

Thus, the best solution is to roust people from their homes, as otherwise they would be swept/drown in tsunami and be consumed by fire in a wildfire.

So, how to allow that sirens remaining silent is the best scenario?

 

[1503-44]

It would seem that a single dual purpose warning system would not have been appropriate.
Focus on the problem at hand and the question becomes why is there is no specific fire warning system.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[TugboatEng]

The person in charge of sounding the siren specifically stated that they did not want to do it because people would not listen and would not shelter in place. Instead, they would try to flee. This same person resigned due to medical conditions.

The issue was not with the siren itself, it was the person behind the button.

 

[AZPete]

Is not the siren primarily an evacuation alert with unspecified danger?

If so, sirens remaining silent is intent to have people shelter in place or otherwise remain unalerted to the presence of imminent danger. Was that the stated intent in the face of a wildfire?

 

[cranky108]

One thing that utilities face is a slew of solar and wind developers that are chasing government incentives. They offer energy at prices below the cost of fossil fuels, but the solutions they offer are not complete, and actually cost more in some cases, as they have problems that the fossil fuel plants did not have, like inertia, and frequency control.
This is likely part of what happened to Hawaii. The issue is many of these wind and solar plants may not be owned by the utility.
Other things in the way, is utilities may not be allowed to trim trees outside the utility easement, but the trees can grow tall enough to be able to fall into the power lines. This is more of a distribution problem, as the easements are much smaller.

"The reason for the rules is capitalists killing everything downstream and now they wish to blame downstream users?" So who do you work for? A company out to make money? Or a non-profit? Or your self?

The problem is we keep promoting people who don't understand the business.

 

[SwinnyGG]

Thus, the best solution is to roust people from their homes, as otherwise they would be swept/drown in tsunami and be consumed by fire in a wildfire

You're missing half of the point.

Residents of the islands are told a zillion times: If you hear sirens, go to high ground. Period. This would've resulted in a large group of people moving toward the fires. With a fire moving that fast, shelter-in-place is not safe, but getting in your car and driving toward the fire is even less so.

Instead, they would try to flee.

Yeah. They would've immediately tried to flee toward the fires.

The issue was not with the siren itself, it was the person behind the button.

They made the right decision based on the flawed system that was available to them.

If you want to make the argument that the system carries a major flaw and should've been designed differently, I would agree completely. But the fact is that this situation put them in a position where the drilled response to the sirens would've resulted in more deaths.

Is not the siren primarily an evacuation alert with unspecified danger?

Yes- but the specific direction from HEMA since the day the system went live is immediate evacuation to higher ground because the primary threat to the islands is usually tsunami. That wrinkle is important.

...sirens remaining silent is intent to have people shelter in place or otherwise remain unalerted to the presence of imminent danger. Was that the stated intent in the face of a wildfire?

The sirens are not the only emergency warning system - the WEA system was used, and alerts were issued. A WEA directing evacuation to the water while the sirens were active would likely have been very confusing.

I hate going to the argument from authority - but I think the variable everyone is missing here is being missed because you haven't lived there. I have, and I can tell you from personal experience that everyone 'knows' that if the sirens are active, you go toward the center of the island. Yes, the website says to listen to the radio or whatever and that the system can be used for other purposes, but in practice and in the social understanding none of that matters. The population of the islands hears those sirens, they go up.

If anything, this entire incident has highlighted a weakness in the HEMA disaster alert system. The publicity and training have set up the system in the minds of the residents of the island such that it is really only useful in case of a tsunami, even though the intent was for it to be universal.

 

[AZPete]

Give credit to people. Rousted from their shelter, induced to head upland, they invariably would FIGURE OUT that the flames in front of them are not a TSUNAMI. Thus, their instinct to run uphill would immediately be updated with current events to discover that anywhere other than their present spot is where they need to head. It was about evacuation.

Unless the operators INTENDED shelter in place, the sirens would automatically have been the goto resource in the event of a major calamity, regardless earthquake, tsunami, fire, or other. It's an alert system.

 

[SwinnyGG]

Give credit to people. Rousted from their shelter, induced to head upland, they invariably would FIGURE OUT that the flames in front of them are not a TSUNAMI

Yeah, they would've - and now you've got several thousand people panicking and trying to reverse course on mountain roads all at the same time, against the flow of traffic filled with a couple thousand other people who haven't figured out what the real problem is yet and they they should be going the other way, all while a raging fire bears down on them at 60 mph.

Allow me to quote the great Tommy Lee Jones: "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it."

Unless the operators INTENDED shelter in place, the sirens would automatically have been the goto resource in the event of a major calamity, regardless earthquake, tsunami, fire, or other. It's an alert system.

Conceptually, yes - it's one component of alert system. But it's a component that tells the general public to do one very specific thing, which in this situation would've put them in a higher level of danger than they were already in.

The other components of the system, which no one is talking about at all, do not immediately trigger that response, and were used to issue alerts.

 

[AZPete]

Is the assessment that shelter in place is the best solution to an encroaching wildfire?

 

[1503-44]

On this island with no warning systems at all, for better or worse, the police go house to house and ensure that all in danger are notified to evacuate. No deaths or injuries so far.

Time to exploit a new crack. This one is going round and round.


--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[3DDave]

"The other components of the system, which no one is talking about at all, do not immediately trigger that response, and were used to issue alerts."

Perhaps no one is talking about them because they did not go out. Oh, wait, they did go out:

"At 4:45 p.m. the county on social media told west side residents to shelter in place."

"at 5:38 p.m., witness video shows Lahaina ablaze near Paunau and at 5:54 p.m. near Front Street."

https://www.khon2.com/always-invest...ine-and-warnings-forecast-through-engulfment/

So those messages could have said "If the sirens go off evacuate to the south."

But there had been nearby fires reported since 3:45 AM that day, more than 12 hours in advance.

How much time is that? Probably enough to escape. It was about 1 mile uphill from the town to get out of the burn zone. A few minutes on foot.

I feel badly for anyone with so little situational awareness that they would think air thick with smoke was a tsunami while an alarm was sounding after days of red flag warnings.

From

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation...uis-emergency-chief-says-he-doesnt-regret-it/

Some of the systems used were wireless emergency alerts, which send text messages to residents, and the emergency alert system, which broadcasts emergency notifications via television and radio.

Which is great if the power is out so TV doesn't work and the cell service goes down, as previously discussed.

It really pays to have an entirely open-loop system and not use all the tools available to get the message out.

 

[AZPete]

It would seem that a single dual purpose warning system would not have been appropriate.
Focus on the problem at hand and the question becomes why is there is no specific fire warning system.

Engineers are a smart class, but as a class, they are distinct from the herd.

In this instance, there was no "best" system a priori. In times of imminent danger, about the best that can be expected is that the unaware become aware. After that, it is usually incumbent upon the individual to figure things out from there.

 

[waross]

Don't use the sirens, people may go towards the fire.
Shelter in place. Where, In the Civic Center, towards the fire.
What about possible traffic jams? Maybe we can put up street barricades.
It sounds like the Peter Principle on Steroids.

--------------------
Ohm's law
Not just a good idea;
It's the LAW!

 

[SwinnyGG]

So those messages could have said "If the sirens go off evacuate to the south."

People still haul ass mauka when the sirens go off during the scheduled monthly tests.

Look ultimately I think everyone is armchair quarterbacking a very, very difficult situation that this guy was put in. There was no easy, clear-cut choice. Were perfect choices made through the entire event? No. They never are.

I just think acting like the decision was obvious after the fact is displaying a lack of understanding of the local conditions, disregarding that local conditions even matter which is a little bit myopic, and also displaying a lack of compassion for people put in positions to have to make very tough decisions.

I'll leave it at that.

 

[AZPete]

Look ultimately I think everyone is armchair quarterbacking a very, very difficult situation that this guy was put in. There was no easy, clear-cut choice.

When authorities take it upon themselves to control and/or assert/insert their guidance or mandates, it's gonna be tough to cut the decision maker much slack.

Nature already hounds people countless ways. Adding a bureaucratic overlay--with immunity from second-guessing--is pretty much assuredly going to run into itself and cause its own casualties.

Perhaps a lesson to learn from this is that people have to be trusted to use their heads when no one knows what is REALLY going on. Give them the heads up where possible; don't presume to know the consequences in advance. But, also, if you're going to own an emergency, plan to own the screw-ups, too, especially when others lose their lives.

 

[dik]

That's easy Hokie... emergency training was wrong. The people were 'taught' to move to higher ground when the siren sounded... this would have taken them into the fire... Training should have been different. People were trained for a tsunami and not a fire hurricane.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

The fire was wind driven. It burned downhill, not up.

They made the right decision based on the flawed system that was available to them.

10% of the population of Lahaina is unaccounted for. Soon the authorities are going to have to admit that the missing are likely deceased. I don't think they could have done worse if they tried.

 

[waross]

Who is responsible when the Peter Principle kicks in?
Those who promoted the poor soul past his level of competency?
The electors?
Those who did not demote a Peter Principle candidate?
Human nature?

Armchair quarter-backing:
Why?

Fix the problem, not the blame.

If we don't find the cause, we won't find a solution and similar will happen again.
If we are not fixing the blame, why are we discussing the officials?
It would be nice if we could go straight to the problem but first we have to remove some impediments.
As long as persons in authority are defending and justifying their actions and planning, they will see no need to make changes.
If the authorities freely admitted;
"Yes. WE screwed up. Our planning was poor. We are going to hold hearings where we will accept public input as well as input from experts to put in place procedures to avoid this ever happening again."
If they had said that, we could have moved straight to remedies.
As long as the authorities justify, deny, excuse and cover their ASSets, they are fair game.
Their justification is acceptable only as input as factors to be addressed by new procedures.


--------------------
Ohm's law
Not just a good idea;
It's the LAW!

 

[1503-44]

Situational awareness was never really great then disappeared entirely with the invention of YouTube, Candy Crush, Twitter/X, FB. People across the dinner table from each other know more about what someone is eating 2000 miles away than what's on their own plates.

So could this be the reason so many were apparently clueless?
There is no video on YT telling people what do do if they see a brush fire approaching.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[IRstuff]

There is no video on YT telling people what do do if they see a brush fire approaching.

The rarity of such an event in an ostensible rainforest environment belies the immediacy of such a thing anyway. Lahaina's population was supposedly around 9100, so roughly 1.1% of its population didn't escape, assuming they even tried. Trying to get the last 1.1% of any population to do something might be challenging, just as there are people that won't leave their homes in California, when faced with wildfires, which are more common here, or people that refuse to evacuate for an incoming hurricane.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

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