It seems to be that the damaged aection was cut out.
Internal pressure release alone (without explosives being involved) of 12m of 1200mm diameter pipe (one double joint length) at 100 barg will be seen as Richter 2.2
Usual pressure failures of pipe are along longitudinal direction.
I'd think an anchor drag would bend the pipe, causing a local failure, after which internal pressure would blow out at a point, rather than pulling 50m of pipe out of its string by causing a tension failure at two points.
Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."
How are thermal stresses managed in this type of pipeline? If the pipe was under tension due to thermal stresses that maybe could explain a 50 foot section disappearing. The pipe may have simply retracted away from itself.
Don't think it was from the inside, the pipe at the top on the right side in the picture is buckled "creased" inwards and at the downside a bit outwards.
If a blast would have come from inside I don't think that could happen.
“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
I was hoping to demonstrate with the photos that the pipe could be severed without any deformation using shaped charges or explosive plasma jet. Any distortions of the metal are not necessarily indicative of the direction force during an initial event.
1503 also keeps mentioning the energy stored within the pipeline was sufficient to cause the seismic events. These are important things to consider. The "experts" have all been wrong so far. A big bomb would have caused much more deformation.
The only thing I can think of similar would be casing cutting down well. It's a completely different situation to 99.9% of other explosive cutting jobs.
Live gas pressure bangs are completely different to hydrostatic. If I was going to cut a J bottle I would fill it with water first.
It could definitely be cut with those two methods easily once you got to it. The getting to it a these depths without being detected is the main issue in this case not per say the cutting method.
I really don't think it was cut from the inside as I mentioned earlier. The pipe is too long to use an ROV so it would take a pig to deliver the charge. But, the pipe wasn't flowing so there was no way to deliver a pig.
At ~80m water depth there isn't anything majorly challenging about delivering a charge to the outside of the pipe. Wrapping a charge around the pipe isn't difficult, either. There are some decompression related issues for divers working at that depth so I don't believe the reports of helicopters in the region are relevant as it would take too long for the diver to do the job and resurface.
150 lbs of TNT is a 2.2 Richter, as is the pressure energy release. If there were two combined, that would be a 2.4 - 2.5 Richter event.
I definitely think it was a thermal cut, but the fold of the pipe wall is inconsistent. I've never seen any internal pressure explosion resulting in that shape. It's just very weird. Of course we can't be sure if the clean cut was the initiating event, or the result of a post event investigation removing the damaged section. In any case, I can't imaging how that fold got there, especially the way the rest of the pipe appears to have remained relatively circular. That looks like a huge crimping tool had a go at it, but I'm not suggesting it.
There are residual tension stresses in the pipeline from maintaining the catenary "S" shape, not allowing too much sag in the lower curve that would cause a local buckle, as the pipe is pulled off the barge. It's considerable, but absolutely not enough to cause more than maybe a half foot of snapback if cut. Cutting more often causes the two ends to displace laterally, far more than axially.
The surrounding water should have kept any pipe fragments rather close by, as even aerodynamically shaped bullets don't travel far under water. Another reason to suspect pipe removal, as no evidence of any fragments or 25m of bent speghetti pipe has been seen yet.
At 80m, it's a mixed gas dive for anything longer than 5 min, or a very long time decompressing.
Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."
If you look at Tugs picture it could make that fold in the spot where the explosive wasn't applied all the way around, even though it isn't as deep as on the NS1 pipe.
So maybe it is possible.
“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
Not sure about that, but if I would know, I wouldn't tell. ;-)
But that is just Swedish economical territory not SE territorial water, and the area is very trafficked so it would be hard, even if not impossible to analyze the data.
Right now the German law enforcement are there and Skagerak some SE research vessel which I think is measuring water quality and environmental things.
“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
You're leaping into areas where you just don't know things which Mr44 and myself do.
So to base things on what has been shown so far from very grainy, simplistic shots or pictures is not going to work.
The force that is present to rip pipelines apart once they get some sort of hole in them is enormous. It is far from unknown for sections of pipe onshore to be flung long distances during the initial failure. That picture looks to me like a weld line. There is some speculation that the pipe at the release point could have been getting to very low temperatures below its design temp so could have gone into brittle failure.
There is no way on earth for any residual tension from the laying, or even cooling of the pipe during the release to result in an movement of 50m. Even 5 m would be pushing it. The scars on the seabed can easily be pre existing. Either anchor scars from laying the pipe, galciers or even fishing.
Oxygen content in the Baltic I can't find data for, but most open seas have too much current and movement for oxygen levels to fall enough to make it "dead". you often see fish swimming around on videos of underwater pipelines at this depth.
But I still haven't seen anything that tells me 50m has vanished.
All we do know for sure is that this is no way an "accident" or fault in the line. There have been very few, if any similar ruptures for subsea lines to compare it to AFAIK
Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.
Supposedly there was only damage to NS2 and Red said the bubble plumes were 50m apart.
All the photos I've seen just show a pipe end; no damaged pipe itself. Usually that's what you do see. ??? Seems like something's still missing. The panoramic view.
Tension failure (yield) begins on this pipe at 125,000,000 lbs. 500,000,000 N, ultimate load 20% higher, so nothing smaller than what, the Death Star?, could put that on two spots. A pipe lay barge might have 1/1000 - 1/500 of that.
Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."
Was only commenting on explosive cutting not what happened to the pipe.
Just know under water is different to land.
Must admit it's tickled my imagination what it would do on a piper at that pressure of gas.
Btw that photo the copper colour stuff is det cord which ignites the explosive black stuff.
The reason why there is a hole is its more powerful than the blacks stuff and they have used some plastic as an igniter. So there is quite a bit more bang in that area than the rest.
The silver thing that looks like a thermo couple is an electrical detonator. What the black wire is I have no clue
Well the coastguard that where surveying the area when it just happened said that the "geyser" was 15 meters high.
It is not easy to take out dimensions from a video like that no references but on one of the first videos you can clearly see it is two swirls and "geysers".
So it is plausible it was 50 meters between them.
There is damage on Nord Stream 1 pipe A and on pipe B and on Nord stream 2 pipe A.
So four damages in total on 3 pipes.
But I still haven't seen anything that tells me 50m has vanished.
Meaning you have to see it yourself that it is missing?
If Expressen that made the effort to investigate it says it is missing, I believe them, because they have no good reason to lie about it, especially since they know they can be proven wrong afterwards by the prosecutors office and the security police that have investigated it more thoroughly.
And LittleInch even if I am not an explosives expert, I have been working most of my life in a place that bends, stretches, shears and brakes metal several thousand times a day ;-) even pipes, the last time today..
“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein
![[ponder]](/data/assets/smilies/ponder.gif "[ponder] [ponder]")
