Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part IX 10

[dik]

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-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

Context, nothing unusual

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2014166117

While instrumental studies are better than proxy based ones, at least we can check if the proxies are moving the same way as the instruments, unlike in the infamous hockey stick.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[hokie66]

dik,

Do you read those articles you link, or just the headlines? Best to read and digest, particularly if they come from Chinese sources. Some funny numbers there.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

"People once believed the planet could always accommodate us — that the resilience of the Earth system meant nature would always provide. But we now know this is not necessarily the case. As big as the world is, our impact is bigger.

This quote stirred up something in my mind about the fundamental difference between me and the "environmentalists". Note: this isn't directed specifically at Dik, it's just his post that made me think about it.

The problem that I have with the "environmentalists" that I see in the political spectrum is that they don't really care about lowering CO2 emissions. They really don't. They are the biggest opponents to nuclear power plants (which have zero CO2 emissions). The oppose solar plants like Ivanpah in the Mojave desert (which has very low CO2 emissions). They generally are the ones most opposed to the construction of hydro power / dams (which have zero CO2 emissions). Why?

What these "environmentalists" actually care about is "human impact". They wish that the earth could return to a period when human impact on the environment didn't exist. It's like a religion with mother earth and the "natural" environment being their God and Heaven. They oppose Nuclear because they can't stand that it produces pollution. You can demonstrate to them that the pollution is VERY small compared to other forms of pollution. But, it offends them because the radioactive waste lasts hundreds of years. Maybe even thousands. And, long term human impact cannot be tolerated (in their minds).

They oppose Hydro Power because it necessitates the diverting or re-routing of rivers in order to create a reservoir and Dam. That's too much of a human impact for them. They worry more about fish that could be impacted.

They fight FOR solar projects in concept. But, they oppose them whenever they see the reality. Why? Well, Ivanpah uses a lot of land in the Mojave desert which think of as "unspoiled" nature before Ivanpah came along. They worry about desert tortoises, or tiny moths or such. They care about all of these things more than they care about CO2 reduction.

They want CO2 reduction by legislating away fossil fuels, as long as they are replaced by anything that has any human impact on the environment.


They are like the self flagellating priest from "The Scarlett Letter". They hate themselves for having an impact on the "pristine" world that is there god.

Folks like me, on the other hand, are concerned about CO2 emissions. As such, we want to reduce fossil fuel use. But, not because we think they are evil. We are 100% for other forms of power that emit less CO2. We are realistic about the trade offs of fossil fuels vs other sources of power.

 

[dik]

Yup... I'm aware some of the sources are Chinese, just like some of them are Australian and American... I generally consider the origin when I read articles. Do they use Australian coal? or is Australia selling their coal elsewhere? I see because of climate change the UK put one of their coal burners on line recently to accommodate their air conditioning.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

I agree Josh... I'm pro nuclear and hydro, too, if done properly it is very renewable power and nearly carbon free. I agree that some of the environmentalists are 'out to lunch'. A lot of power in Canada is Hydro... and there have been some 'bad' engineering decisions made, but hydro is very green. I don't wear an engineering ring because of the bad engineering undertaken by Manitoba Hydro 50 years ago. My first experience with bad engineering.

Part of the solution is cutting down on energy requirements. This is essential to a solution, and no one seems to be addressing it. Fossil fuels have to go, and the sooner the better.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Nuclear may not be a better option.


Other users here have pointed out that there has not been a definitive link between GHG and global temperature. Here is an article linking the temperature trends to waste heat.

https://environmentalsystemsresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40068-020-00169-2

Nuclear power generates a lot more waste heat than any other source of power.

However, the author makes a very fundamental oversight. In the case of electricity, all of the energy becomes heat eventually, it's not just the waste heat from generation inefficiency.

 

[dik]

Concur... hydro is the best... It's a matter of reclaiming as much heat as you can from nuclear facilities.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

Josh - that's why I call them the people-haters.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[Tomfh]

China has reached its goal to have more non-fossil fuel installed electricity capacity than fossil fuels earlier than planned, with 50.9% of its power capacity coming from non-fossil fuel sources now

More CCP propaganda from you, with your "capacity" sleight of hand.

China's actual electricity generation is two-thirds coal fired, and their coal usage is absolute terms continues to increase.

 

[dik]

Not just China propaganda... catch the bar charts...

Coal is just an uglier fossil fuel than the others gas and oil... China's fossil fuel consumption is a fraction of the US.

and as far as coal goes...

considering their population is 5x that of the US, they still aren't doing so bad.

Using them as a scapegoat to prevent actively addressing the carbon problem is just a manner of deferring actions that will likely have to be taken in the near future. As Greta notes, "Rich countries are signing a “death sentence” for millions of poor people around the world by failing to phase out fossil fuels, the climate activist Greta Thunberg has told governments."

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ossil-fuels-is-death-sentence-for-worlds-poor

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[hokie66]

I love coal, and China and India buy lots of it. Without coal, Queensland would be third world.

 

[BridgeSmith]

If you're going to post quotes from Greta Thunberg, I can too, right?

Apparently, we only have a week left to stop using fossil fuels. Highly unlikely we're going to make it.

 

[Tomfh]

catch the bar charts...

and you miss the point as always. deliberately it seems.

You quoted Chinese "capacity" figures, to justify your false claim that china gets the majority of its electricty from non fossil fuel sources. But the reality is that when it comes to actual generation (not just capacity), the chinese grid is overwhelmingly powered by coal. And so what do you do when the talk moves to "generation"?, you do your useful ball and cup scam and flip back to "per capita" figures, so as to avoid the elephant in the room that your darling China is far and away the world's largest user of coal.

 

[GregLocock]

Coal consumption by country, China uses more than half of the total global figure

Country Yearly Coal Consumption
(MMcf) World
Share Cubic Feet
Per Capita
1 China 4,319,921,826,000 50.5 % 3,055.00
2 India 966,288,692,600 11.3 % 729.54
3 United States 731,071,000,000 8.5 % 2,263.27
4 Germany 257,488,592,900 3.0 % 3,132.70
5 Russia 230,392,143,100 2.7 % 1,585.90
6 Japan 210,559,949,300 2.5 % 1,648.05
7 South Africa 202,298,474,200 2.4 % 3,599.13
8 South Korea 157,124,158,500 1.8 % 3,081.87
9 Poland 148,799,901,400 1.7 % 3,916.90
10 Australia 129,642,679,100 1.5 % 5,343.29
11 Turkey 116,877,929,300 1.4 % 1,464.12
12 Indonesia 102,623,737,100 1.2 % 392.36
13 Kazakhstan 86,633,849,830 1.0 % 4,858.64
14 Taiwan 72,649,581,410 0.8 % 3,076.00
15 Ukraine 59,357,188,880 0.7 % 1,327.49
16 Vietnam 56,641,097,040 0.7 % 604.88
17 Czech Republic (Czechia) 49,418,771,720 0.6 % 4,653.87
18 Serbia 43,189,608,110 0.5 % 4,878.00
19 Canada 42,907,416,750 0.5 % 1,179.33
20 Thailand 42,674,985,870 0.5 % 618.74
21 United Kingdom 41,459,830,190 0.5 % 625.36
22 Greece 38,077,094,330 0.4 % 3,587.04
23 Bulgaria 35,234,236,840 0.4 % 4,926.52
24 Malaysia 33,022,853,070 0.4 % 1,076.20
25 Brazil 27,275,972,010 0.3 % 132.30
26 Romania 26,886,238,620 0.3 % 1,358.15
27 Mexico 22,478,332,230 0.3 % 182.26
28 Philippines 22,372,483,760 0.3 % 215.82
29 Spain 21,948,094,410 0.3 % 470.64
30 Italy 18,787,634,320 0.2 % 309.70
31 Netherlands 18,203,547,340 0.2 % 1,071.98
32 Chile 14,077,601,010 0.2 % 773.11
33 France 12,900,349,260 0.2 % 199.49
34 Hong Kong 12,303,072,610 0.1 % 1,698.49
35 Hungary 11,663,542,110 0.1 % 1,195.90
36 Colombia 11,385,457,170 0.1 % 236.34
37 North Korea 10,707,839,340 0.1 % 423.11
38 Pakistan 10,199,674,430 0.1 % 50.09
39 Israel 10,167,719,520 0.1 % 1,253.88
40 Bosnia and Herzegovina 9,466,163,184 0.1 % 2,795.46
41 Mongolia 8,823,723,592 0.1 % 2,887.00
42 Morocco 7,153,991,900 0.1 % 203.66
43 Slovakia 6,708,666,633 0.1 % 1,232.76
44 North Macedonia 5,987,017,899 0.1 % 2,877.35
45 Finland 5,310,768,554 0.1 % 966.00
46 Portugal 5,290,177,075 0.1 % 512.34
47 Laos 5,247,933,857 0.1 % 766.59
48 Uzbekistan 4,770,797,680 0.1 % 151.73
49 Slovenia 4,143,583,290 0.0 % 1,997.67
50 Belgium 4,035,556,910 0.0 % 355.42
51 Denmark 3,985,952,960 0.0 % 697.90
52 Austria 3,886,745,060 0.0 % 444.34
53 Zimbabwe 3,388,555,286 0.0 % 241.52
54 Sweden 2,857,190,916 0.0 % 290.48
55 New Zealand 2,765,589,930 0.0 % 593.57
56 Ireland 2,474,685,950 0.0 % 527.00
57 United Arab Emirates 2,454,173,243 0.0 % 262.17
58 Kyrgyzstan 2,447,128,200 0.0 % 402.86
59 Sri Lanka 2,295,009,420 0.0 % 109.18
60 Bangladesh 2,099,900,000 0.0 % 13.29
61 Afghanistan 1,871,722,380 0.0 % 52.90
62 Guatemala 1,751,570,590 0.0 % 105.62
63 Cambodia 1,625,907,250 0.0 % 103.13
64 Puerto Rico 1,565,870,822 0.0 % 476.95
65 Tajikistan 1,511,267,010 0.0 % 174.44
66 Montenegro 1,500,243,910 0.0 % 2,391.73
67 Iran 1,472,686,160 0.0 % 18.51
68 Argentina 1,403,477,115 0.0 % 32.26
69 Botswana 1,356,943,610 0.0 % 628.24
70 Peru 1,267,656,500 0.0 % 40.99
71 Dominican Republic 1,215,241,660 0.0 % 116.88
72 Croatia 1,179,627,009 0.0 % 280.29
73 New Caledonia 1,155,220,880 0.0 % 4,213.20
74 Norway 824,527,880 0.0 % 157.02
75 Mauritius 772,967,330 0.0 % 612.56
76 Egypt 769,412,380 0.0 % 8.15
77 Singapore 761,679,182 0.0 % 134.72
78 Belarus 681,227,580 0.0 % 72.12
79 Madagascar 566,337,256 0.0 % 22.75
80 Ethiopia 539,255,173 0.0 % 5.20
81 Kenya 537,358,860 0.0 % 10.95
82 Myanmar 536,769,855 0.0 % 10.12
83 Senegal 448,640,170 0.0 % 29.92
84 Georgia 419,462,024 0.0 % 104.46
85 Kuwait 387,108,873 0.0 % 97.83
86 Panama 330,693,000 0.0 % 81.91
87 Tanzania 327,860,928 0.0 % 6.18
88 Nepal 283,302,995 0.0 % 10.39
89 Lithuania 272,313,067 0.0 % 94.24
90 Niger 261,247,470 0.0 % 12.57
91 Jordan 242,508,200 0.0 % 25.38
92 Switzerland 199,518,110 0.0 % 23.81
93 Nigeria 193,329,582 0.0 % 1.04
94 Zambia 183,692,986 0.0 % 11.23
95 Honduras 180,778,840 0.0 % 19.50
96 Venezuela 180,696,035 0.0 % 6.05
97 Togo 161,047,737 0.0 % 21.44
98 Eswatini 159,863,179 0.0 % 143.50
99 Moldova 137,788,750 0.0 % 33.89
100 Iceland 136,686,440 0.0 % 411.45
101 Lebanon 135,975,839 0.0 % 20.25
102 Yemen 133,379,510 0.0 % 4.91
103 Saudi Arabia 122,986,931 0.0 % 3.79
104 Bhutan 96,000,000 0.0 % 130.31
105 Albania 95,900,970 0.0 % 33.22
106 Oman 94,990,251 0.0 % 21.21
107 Luxembourg 89,198,115 0.0 % 153.99
108 Benin 87,775,843 0.0 % 8.07
109 Malawi 85,915,364 0.0 % 4.99
110 Jamaica 80,468,630 0.0 % 27.69
111 Latvia 67,861,344 0.0 % 34.37
112 Algeria 27,321,049 0.0 % 0.67
113 Estonia 19,762,405 0.0 % 15.01
114 Ecuador 13,555,288 0.0 % 0.82
115 DR Congo 12,538,033 0.0 % 0.16
116 Mozambique 12,125,410 0.0 % 0.44
117 Syria 5,526,160 0.00 % 0.32
118 Namibia 5,523,724 0.00 % 2.34
119 Tunisia 2,259,332 0.00 % 0.20
120 Cuba 2,066,443 0.00 % 0.18
121 Paraguay 1,679,929 0.00 % 0.25
122 Armenia 1,322,685 0.00 % 0.45
123 Uruguay 436,631 0.000 % 0.13
124 Cyprus 223,541 0.000 % 0.19
125 Trinidad and Tobago 198,416 0.000 % 0.14
126 Azerbaijan 178,010 0.000 % 0.02
127 Costa Rica 109,768 0.000 % 0.02
128 Malta 56,098 0.0000 % 0.13
129 Ghana 17,099 0.0000 % 0.00
130 Fiji 710 0.0000 % 0.00

Sources
Statistical Review of World Energy - British Petroleum
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)


Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[BridgeSmith]

Coal consumption by country, China uses more than half of the total global figure

If I'm reading those numbers correctly, China also use more coal per capita than the US. The last number in each line is the per capita coal usage, right? 3,055 CF for China; 2,263 for US.

Interestingly enough, Australia tops the per capita coal usage:

5343.29 10 Australia 129,642,679,100 1.5 % 5,343.29
4926.52 23 Bulgaria 35,234,236,840 0.4 % 4,926.52
4878 18 Serbia 43,189,608,110 0.5 % 4,878.00
4858.64 13 Kazakhstan 86,633,849,830 1.0 % 4,858.64
4653.87 17 Czech Republic (Czechia) 49,418,771,720 0.6 % 4,653.87
4213.2 73 New Caledonia 1,155,220,880 0.0 % 4,213.20
3916.9 9 Poland 148,799,901,400 1.7 % 3,916.90
3599.13 7 South Africa 202,298,474,200 2.4 % 3,599.13
3587.04 22 Greece 38,077,094,330 0.4 % 3,587.04
3132.7 4 Germany 257,488,592,900 3.0 % 3,132.70
3081.87 8 South Korea 157,124,158,500 1.8 % 3,081.87
3076 14 Taiwan 72,649,581,410 0.8 % 3,076.00
3055 1 China 4,319,921,826,000 50.5 % 3,055.00
2887 41 Mongolia 8,823,723,592 0.1 % 2,887.00
2877.35 44 North Macedonia 5,987,017,899 0.1 % 2,877.35
2795.46 40 Bosnia and Herzegovina 9,466,163,184 0.1 % 2,795.46
2391.73 66 Montenegro 1,500,243,910 0.0 % 2,391.73
2263.27 3 United States 731,071,000,000 8.5 % 2,263.27
1997.67 49 Slovenia 4,143,583,290 0.0 % 1,997.67
1698.49 34 Hong Kong 12,303,072,610 0.1 % 1,698.49
1648.05 6 Japan 210,559,949,300 2.5 % 1,648.05
1585.9 5 Russia 230,392,143,100 2.7 % 1,585.90
1464.12 11 Turkey 116,877,929,300 1.4 % 1,464.12
1358.15 26 Romania 26,886,238,620 0.3 % 1,358.15
1327.49 15 Ukraine 59,357,188,880 0.7 % 1,327.49
1253.88 39 Israel 10,167,719,520 0.1 % 1,253.88
1232.76 43 Slovakia 6,708,666,633 0.1 % 1,232.76
1195.9 35 Hungary 11,663,542,110 0.1 % 1,195.90
1179.33 19 Canada 42,907,416,750 0.5 % 1,179.33
1076.2 24 Malaysia 33,022,853,070 0.4 % 1,076.20
1071.98 31 Netherlands 18,203,547,340 0.2 % 1,071.98



Also interesting is that the ranking is similar but not the same for "Per capita energy consumption from coal"

 

[dik]

That's correct... but coal is only one of the three fossil fuels that are the problem. They are all bad...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

That's correct. The chart was for the change in use, which is still increasing. This likely is not a positive thing. The numbers should be on the other side of the origin.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[BridgeSmith]

but coal is only one of the three fossil fuels that are the problem. They are all bad...

Coal is just an uglier fossil fuel than the others...

 

[BridgeSmith]

The chart was for the change in use, which is still increasing.

No, that 50.5% for China is the "World Share" of the "Yearly Coal Consumption". IOW, China's consumption of coal is just over half of the world total.

 

[dik]

@Bridge... 'will' is pretty definitive; maybe 'can' is still extreme.

We don't know where this is going, or what the scientist based his statement on. One thing for sure is that we have not decreased our carbon output and things have not improved, climate wise. We also do not know his timeline; it could be the event will occur in a century, or so. I don't think we are headed for an 'all humanity' situation, but it could get pretty ugly.

There was an article in the Washington Post last week about the oceans warming much greater than the models indicated. I suspect this is not good.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik