Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII 26

[dik]

For earlier threads, see:
thread1618-496010
thread1618-496614
thread1618-497017
thread1618-497239
thread1618-497988
thread1618-498967
thread1618-501135
thread1618-504850
thread1618-506948
thread1618-507973
thread1618-510266
thread1618-512015


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Dik -

So, the Fascism of the 20th century as exhibited by Hitler and Mussolini and such was born out of an ultra-nationalist movement which was, as you suggested extreme right wing. That doesn't mean that it MUST be that way. There are speeches from Ronald Reagan back in the 80's where he talks about how the left had started leaning into fascism. In his definition, this mean that there would still be private ownership, but that there was still total government control.

Communism and Socialism, however are one and the same in my opinion. That's not to say that a country with lots of social welfare programs is a "socialist" country. However, it begins with the Marxist belief in the class struggle of the oppressor and the oppressed, classically capitalists vs proletariats. Both advocate for violent revolution by the oppressed against the oppressors as being the way to "fix" society.

Now, China certainly started off as a Communist / Socialist country under Mao. The government and the communist party completely controlled all means of production in their society. This led to wide spread famine and horrible suffering of their people. Over the last 40 years, they have transformed their economy into a PRIMARILY capitalist one. However, it's still a totalitarian government. The people and the businessmen have no rights. The government can come in and seize all your assets if they want. They can force your business to reveal extremely private information about their customers to them.

I would argue that the form of government in the China of TODAY would be best described as a Fascist government. At least it has morphed into that. Therefore, I think your rigid definitions of Fascism and Communism are not realistic in today's world.

 

[rb1957]

maybe socialism and communism are ideal forms, just as "Democracy" is an ideal.

what we see in the real world is a pale imitation of whichever ideal you are pursuing.

Communism as practiced in Russia is better called Leninism, 'cause in practice political power was concentrated in a very small proportion of the population.

Democracy as practiced in "the west" is either a two party system or multi-party (which usually devolves into a minority government (government by collation) and this usually does work well).
nd in the two party system, the choice often devolves to "those guys have been in power too long", elections are more often than not fought on "fluff"(slagging off the other party) and rarely address the issues Plans are often undercosted, and usually when a new party gets in it's "oh dear, it's much worse than we thought, we can't do XYZ".

Big issues usually fall prey to little concerns ... if Canada's carbon taxes increases costs, people say "why do things cost more ?" and a party will surely say "we'll scrap these carbon taxes, and we will meet the carbon issue without taxes FF"

Thus many are disillusioned with modern democracy.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[dik]

The EU seems to be on the right path...

"The decline in coal and gas usage in 2023 was unprecedented. Coal usage dropped by 26 per cent to a record low, contributing just 12 per cent to the EU’s electricity generation.

Gas saw its largest annual decrease since at least 1990, falling by 15 per cent. This reduction in fossil fuel use led to a 19 per cent decrease in emissions from the electricity sector.

‘Sarah Brown, European program director at Ember, emphasised, ‘Coal is on its way out and, as wind and solar grow, gas will be next to go into terminal decline.

‘However, this is not the time to rest on its laurels. The EU needs to focus on rapid deployment of wind, solar and flexibility to create a system free of the risks of fossil fuels.’

Spain stood out in 2023, with renewable energy sources almost reaching 51 per cent of its energy mix. This significant achievement underlines Spain’s commitment to green energy, with the clean energy sector now representing over 60 per cent of the total national electrical system."

https://euroweeklynews.com/2024/02/07/wind-energy-overtakes-gas-in-europe/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Democracy as practiced in the west is largely mythical... look up the term Oligarchy for a better description.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[BridgeSmith]

Gas saw its largest annual decrease since at least 1990, falling by 15 per cent.

That's just Putin doing his part for the environment.

 

[hokie66]

And not a mention of nuclear?

 

[rb1957]

if "The EU seems to be on the right path ..." ... I'm glad I don't live there.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Regarding freedom, equality, rights and such.... Milton Friedman (the brilliant economist) had a very good quote:

Societies that puts equality before freedom usually get neither. But, societies that put freedom before equality usually get a high degree of both.

I think that pretty much sums up my political philosophy. If your government to limit freedoms (like fascists or socialists) in order to promote whatever type of equality they're searching for, you will get neither freedom or equality. You will instead have human misery.... every dang time. If, however, your government's main purpose is to preserve your freedoms, then your society will generally get lots of freedom and equality.

 

[SnTMan]

Absolutely

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[rb1957]

freedom to starve is no freedom at all.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[dik]

Like so much stuff, these days, we just have to wait and see how this works its way out... The next few years could be a harbinger... mass starvation could bring some really unwelcome geo-political changes...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

mass starvation could bring some really unwelcome geo-political changes.

This idea of "mass starvation" is just silly. Actually, worse than that, it's just complete fear mongering. Please identify a reputable scientist that has suggested this will happen due to global warming!

I say this partly because, the environmentalist left has been predicting mass starvation for 70 years. Yet, they have been proven so incredibly wrong that this sort of claim should make us realize how foolish these people really are. Food is cheaper and more accessible to people now than it has ever been. Granted, that was a prediction based on population growth, not on climate change. The only mass starvation we've seen in my lifetime has been caused by government (i.e. China, North Korea, et cetera). Even the mass starvation we saw at times in Ethiopia or Somalia were caused more my political instability / warlords and such than it was by climate.

Let's look at how atmospheric CO2 and increased temperatures should affect plant life / food production:
1) Plants grow better and faster with increased CO2. So, it should help to INCREASE our food supply.
2) Increased temperatures will allow greater food production in regions that were colder before. Not sure increased temperatures alone would suggest any overall reduction in the production of food. Sure, there can be localized reductions in some areas. But, those should be offset by increased growth in other areas.
3) Water supply. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hotter temperatures correspond to higher moisture content in the air. Meaning more rainfall. Meaning more food production and potentially more reliable water supplies.

I just have never seen a RATIONAL or science based narrative that gives any sound reason why increased CO2 will lead to mass starvation. Please give me something to justify these claims. I want to understand why an otherwise rational person might believe this sort of frivolous claim.

 

[dik]

2024 is off to a good start...

"The world just had its hottest year ever recorded, and 2024 has already set a new heat record for the warmest January ever observed, according to the European Union's climate change monitoring service Copernicus.

The service said that January 2024 had a global average air temperature of 13.14 degrees Celsius, or 55.65 degrees Fahrenheit. That temperature was 0.70 degrees Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average for the month and 0.12 degrees Celsius above the last warmest January, in 2020.

It was also 1.66 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average for the month."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/another-global-heat-record-is-in-the-books-this-time-in-january/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Maybe millions isn't mass... but it's a bunch...

https://www.redcross.org.uk/stories...a-hunger-crisis-100-million-struggling-to-eat

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Reading that quote from CBS posted by dik is funny, it reads as if they think their readers don't know that it's summer in the southern hemisphere. They're expecting us to read 55° and say my God that's hot for winter time.

 

[dik]

off to a good start, and it's only the beginning of the new year.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Dik -

The closest that CBS article (which is certainly not a "science" based article) gets to saying that there will be world wide starvation is when Bob Watson (a former chair of a UN Panel on Global warming) says, "we're starting to see less agricultural productivity". It doesn't even give any academic credentials for Watson. LOL.

Next!

The Red Cross article is one mostly intended to be a fund raising drive for their efforts to fight humanitarian crises in Africa. They genuinely do NOT blame this on global warming, it's just one of the catch phrases they're using to raise money to help.

For what it's worth, I can just about guarantee that the other factors mentioned (conflict, population displacement, soaring food and energy prices due to war in the Ukraine) are the real culprits behind any mass starvation that will happen.

Maybe drought is a significant factor, I can certainly believe that. However, we have to realize that this area has a severe drought every few decades.... as part of the natural cycle predating global warming. The real solution is better water processing, water storage.... everything that the Western world does. Heck, there are probably a dozen non-profits (or more) whose sole focus is to modernize water supply and processing in these countries.

A news story from 7 years ago:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...raises-a-glass-to-and-of-water-made-from-poop

A nonprofit that my neighbor used to work for:

https://www.wellsoflife.org/

A movie from my teenage years set in Africa where the the drought vs rain cycle is an integral part of the story.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lion_King

A famine from my childhood. This article discusses how 1/3 of the Ethiopian population starved to death in the late 1800s. Then in 1958 another 100,000 died. But, it wasn't until the political situation (i.e. the Red Terror happened) that agriculture industry got devastated... leading up to the deaths of between 300k and 1.2 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983–1985_famine_in_Ethiopia

In 1992, Somalia had a terrible famine that as almost entirely caused by the civil war that was going on there. Drought was a contributing problem. But, it was the war that prevented food from getting to hungry people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_famine_in_Somalia

 

[dik]

All within the climate change period, and they might get a tad worse...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

All within the climate change period, and they might get a tad worse...

Not sure exactly what you mean by that.

If you actually read the Wiki post on the Ethiopian famine, it discusses a famine in the 1880's where 1/3 of their population died of starvation. That essentially predates the climate warming period.

If you want to split hairs, maybe we can claim that the 1850's was the point where the industrial revolution gained enough momentum that CO2 emissions were significantly changed and that's when global warming started. However, it's close enough that we can say it had little to no effect on that famine.

The point is that there has been famines and droughts in African going back centuries. Heck, it's talked about in the Bible!

Remember the onus of proof is on the people who are saying that radical change must be initiated. So, you must demonstrate that such famines are caused by global warming. There is zero evidence of that that I'm aware of. The articles you cited provide no evidence of that outside of a questionable claim (that crop yields are decreasing) by a person that is a relative unknown (Bob Watson).

For what it's worth, I looked up the name Bob Watson and will assume that this was referring to this person who is certainly an expert:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Watson_(chemist)

As far as his claim that crop yields have decreased, I will offer the following site which clearly shows a pretty steady increase in crop yields that doesn't show much sign of slowing down. Maybe soybeans, but all other crop yields are clearly increasing:

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2...-crop-yields-in-an-era-of-climate-change.html

 

[rb1957]

It is astonishing how coal production (as a proxy for coal consumption) has changed ...

in 1900 worldwide 5 TWh, in 2022 50TWh ! and most of this change is China since 1990 (6 to 26) ... nearly 1/2 (20/45 = 4/9 = 44%) the change in 30 years.
meanwhile in the US 1990 to 2022 it 1/2d ... from 6 to 3

yes, but this is coal production ... and coal consumption would include imported coal.

Step back from the trees ... coal production (and by extension coal consumption, 'cause I don't see people storing mountains of coal) has soared in recent history (30 years) to a level (and at a rate) which is unsustainable.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.