Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII 27

[dik]

For earlier threads, see:
thread1618-496010
thread1618-496614
thread1618-497017
thread1618-497239
thread1618-497988
thread1618-498967
thread1618-501135
thread1618-504850
thread1618-506948
thread1618-507973
thread1618-510266
thread1618-512015


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

With a population of 5x the American, they are even better off with Covid fatalities. As with most things, the US far exceeds the Western world, too.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[hokie66]

Complete rubbish, dik. China is still suffering from Covid deaths, and not reporting any.

 

[TugboatEng]

Really? The same China that punished it's doctors for warning about COVID and has a history of concealing health threats?

https://apnews.com/article/virus-ou...news-arrests-6f2e666485e9abae4bb112251eca77be

 

[dik]

A pretty good summary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_mhBweaVxU

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Are there any key points you would like to share so we don't have to waste 45 minutes and all of the CO2 required to stream it?

 

[dik]

Coastal Flooding...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4q3SjqWtvg

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Will you acknowledge that sea levels have already risen 425 feet within human history?

 

[dik]

Yup, over millennia and not with the current infrastructure and cities/villages and population densities involved.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

It has risen that much within 14,000 years which averages out to 0.36 inches per year. We haven't experienced 0.36" in the last 150 years since we started burning fossil fuels. Where does your concern come from?

 

[GregLocock]

Sea level rise is a bit less than 1/8" per year, but much of that occurs out in the middle of the oceans, near coats it seems a lot less. There are other far more important reasons for changes in tide gage readings, ie sea vs land, which I have written fairly often about. Tilting of tectonic plates, land use changes, and water extraction from underground basins are far more important.

As of yesterday I'm red flagging all posts that just include media links with no explanation as to why they are worth watching.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Yup, over millennia and not with the current infrastructure and cities/villages and population densities involved.

What does that matter? There were certainly people and civilizations living in those areas, right?

The point is that they adjusted fine. They moved because the seas rose. They adapted.

I would make the argument that it is much, much easier for our societies to adapt today. Once I decide to leave, I can pack my stuff into a truck and drive to the mountains or a neighboring state.... and I'm there in a few days, max. Easy peasy....

Coastal Flooding...

Yet, we are safer from coastal flooding (and other weather related events) as a society than we have ever been in recorded history. Right? The numbers show that very obviously.

Now, if you're making the argument that it will be extremely expensive to deal with these floods and changes and such, then that is a great point! That's EXACTLY what we should be talking about..... how to spend our limited financial resources best to deal with global warming / climate change. Right?

This has always been my point. That there are better ways to spend our money to deal with this than what the climate alarmists want us to do. Essentially, our goal should never be net Zero carbon emissions. But, to be more EFFICIENT with our climate emissions in a way that will not bankrupt our society. How to deal with events as they come up in a way that will be sustainable going forward.

Policy changes that basically suggest that living at low elevations (say within 20 feet of sea level) should make you ineligible for FEMA relief should a flood occur. That sort of thing will encourage people to build elsewhere. The ones that don't care are likely rich enough that it won't matter to them.

It might mean that some thriving communities (say New Orleans) will be abandoned over a period of just a few decades. But, that's okay. That's how we adjust to global warming. It will amount to something that just doesn't affect our everyday lives for the most part. Just like the following predicted catastrophes:

1) The Population Bomb, which predicted worldwide famine in the 1970's. When, in fact, the rates of starvation in the world dramatically declined.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

2) The impending ice age that was talked about in the 1970's.

3) The Ozone hole.

4) The prediction that Y2K would result in major disruptions in all aspects of our life.

5) Various predictions based on Mayan Calendars. Various predictions from religious sects about when the 2nd coming or the apocalypse would occur.

6) Another big one was the idea that we would all die due to nuclear proliferation. I remember an hour assembly where an activist addressed my entire high school with typical fear mongering tactics. This would have been circa 1988.

The point is that people have made these sorts of predictions for decades (probably centuries) and they have not proven to be very accurate at all. Why should we believe the dire predictions this time around?

 

[dik]

Apps from Copernicus... ICYC

https://www.copernicus.eu/es/node/47237

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Josh... I'm not sure what the population bomb is, but population is going to be a problem. The population of the developed countries has fallen below that required to sustain them. This reduction in population will cause serious problems as the developed countries age, requiring a lot more 'support' from a dwindling workforce.


That's why I don't make any forecasts, only that there is a potential for a real serious outcome. As I've said, I don't know what it will be, but it has the potential to be really ugly.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

The concept you rae looking for is known as the dependency ratio, (children+retired)/workers.

As a concept the raw ratio is a bit misleading , lumping the ankle biters in with the crumblies masks the future.



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[SwinnyGG]

That's why I don't make any forecasts, only that there is a potential for a real serious outcome

Good lord.

Your constant battle to convince everyone that the most sensationalist negative outcome is the actual endgame IS A PREDICTION.

You can't hide behind that. Your post history indicates that in your mind there is no room for a rational or moderate point of view.

If you actually have a rational or moderate point of view, you need to make a serious change in how you present your ideas.

Until then, backpedaling to 'I'm not forecasting anything, I'm just saying it could maybe get real bad' isn't fooling anyone.

 

[dik]

Sorry Swinny... I have no idea of what the real outcome will be. I do know there is the potential for it to be really ugly.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

I think you just wasted a lot of words, SwinngGG.

Climate change has its first lost cause.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

I'm not sure what the population bomb is, but population is going to be a problem. The population of the developed countries has fallen below that required to sustain them. This reduction in population will cause serious problems as the developed countries age, requiring a lot more 'support' from a dwindling workforce.

The "population bomb" was a very widely popularized concept from the late 1960s that the earth could not possibly sustain it's population and that food would become quite scarce. It was advanced by a Stanford biologist whose specialty was insects and pollination (Paul Erhilich sp?). It was widely believed to be "solid science" and was used by the environmentalist left for years to justify anti-population strategies. Now, I should point out that the point of the book was that we were already so far along that this was essentially unavoidable.

Of course, the widespread starvation never happened. Except maybe in communist countries that made poor decisions about their economy that caused large numbers of people to starve. Why did the supply of food increase so much and the cost of food go down so much while the population was still rising? Well, because of technological advancements made by the free market.

Not only that, but the rate of population growth quickly decreased. Why? Because of technological and medical advancements made by the free market.

Why won't "global warming" be a major problem. Partly from technological advancements by the free market. Partly because of the ability of our societies to adapt. The same reason why casualties related to climate / weather continue to decrease on a per capita basis. We adapt, we build better and safer buildings and cities.

I have no doubt that there will be some dramatic changes to our society in the next 100 years that will be initiated by the effects of global warming. I don't pretend to know exactly what those will be. But, I suspect that they will involve a large number of relatively small steps and no one will even realize the extent of what we're doing until global warming is no longer an issue.

 

[TugboatEng]

I found this article from 2017 that gives a very detailed history of California's climate with emphasis on changes that occured within human history. The information is well presented and unbiased.

https://planningcommission.org/site...eBasinTalk_60-min_TulareCountyWaterSummit.pdf

An excerpt as the article is long:

 

[dik]

It's only been about the last 20,000 years, or so, that there have been people in the Americas... the far right side of your charts. likely just to the right of your last ice volume 'peak'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik