Things are Starting to Warm Up. 21

[dik]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...mothers-bear-brunt-climate-change-2022-06-14/

a sign of things to come... hold on to your hats, folks.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[rb1957]

actually I think the problem is there's too much data, (data to show heating and cooling !) and not enough understanding.

The main problem is that people (yes, I mean you people) want to distill a very complicated problem down to simple talking points.
"the glaciers are melting" ... well, sure, some are, but there are some that aren't.
"the sealevel is rising" ... well, sure, but not in all places, and not significantly.
"CO2 is THE cause for anthropological climate change" ... sure, CO2 is responsible for some of it, but land use ? de-forestation ? cows ??

Mankind is certainly affecting the environment in a multitude of ways, none to be taken lightly. Burning FF may not be the best thing for the environment, maybe the levels of CO2 are an issue. But the pain of mitigating the effects of CO2 is so much that ...
1) we can't do the "right" thing (stop burning FFs today),
2) outlandish statements are made by both sides of the "debate",
3) to accept any pain we insist of factual statements but are possibly not as factual as we'd like to believe,
4) because we can't do 1) we end up doing a bunch of 1/2 (1/4? 1/n?) measures that'll probably have little effect in the long run,
5) and do we Know that this is the critical thing to address ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[TugboatEng]

Ironic, thermometers don't measure heat. You would need a psychrometer to estimate heat. We all know the weatherman has those. Why can't we get enthalpy estimates for our atmosphere to determine whether or not we are truly warming by CO2. If CO2 traps heat there should be a clear rise in enthalpy.

 

[dik]

5) and do we Know that this is the critical thing to address ?

That’s easy: the rapaciousness, tribalism and selfishness of the average member of the ironically named Homo sapiens. In a word: human nature. You would have to wilfully ignore 6000 years of operating experience to think that will change anytime soon.

The enormity of what is required to effect the change we need is equivalent to having every person in the world change their religion. Which, if one can resist narrow, literalist or institutional definitions of religion, is exactly what is required.

Free tip: you and others will have to practice your gaslighting if you want to be effective in muddying the waters.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[rb1957]

@im ... just deleted what I was about to post. There's no point.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[TugboatEng]

I only ask for a number that accurately represents the situation. Temperature is one dimensional in a 3 dimensional world.

No muddy waters here.

Did you know that you don't feel temperature or heat on your skin?

 

[dik]

My son sent me a link (quite technical) with the following observation. I don't think he's far off the mark.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape.


Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[dik]

Did you know that you don't feel temperature or heat on your skin

That’s one superpower I sadly don’t seem to possess.
Which is a shame because with it I could be very useful saving lives in extreme California/BC/Australia/Siberia/Alberta/Spain/Greece/Arizona/California/Australia/New Mexico/Amazonia/Portugal wildfires (peer reviewed references upon request).

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[dik]

… thermometers don’t measure heat

Do tell!!

I actually prefer the indirect method of following lemming activity, including (and especially) the frequency of mass self destruction. Sadly the global heating cabal have so far not picked up my suggestion.

Your dissembling around thermodynamics is the most amusing thing I’ve encountered so far today (but the day’s not over).

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[GregLocock]

The worst bushfires seen in Oz were in the 1850s. Don't be a drama queen. The worst drought was 1900, don't be a drama queen. The worst floods, 1852. Stop being a drama queen.

The climate of the Earth is difficult to characterise and measure. One subset of climate is the average global temperature over a suitable time period, measured near the Earth's surface. This temperature has varied historically over a wide range. It is affected by many factors, both known and unknown. The main factor is the albedo of the Earth and the incoming energy from the Sun. These two directly interact and the combined effect raises the temperature of the Earth by about 250 deg C, from the background temperature of space which is about -270 deg C . The next most significant effect is the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere, which raises the temperature by about 33 deg C. This is due to several mechanisms associated with turning incoming EM waves into heat (badly phrased) , and also complex interactions with the heat radiated by the Earth's surface, and probably some other knowns and unknowns. The greenhouse effect is affected by the gaseous composition of the atmosphere, and clouds. The most important gas for greenhouse is water vapour, approximately 80% of the non-cloud greenhouse effect is due to that. Water also directly affects the albedo of the Earth by forming clouds and snow and ice. Of the remainder the majority is due to CO2. In the absence of any other effects a further doubling of the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere would be expected to raise the temperature by rather less than, but approximately, 1 deg C. However, this is a very weak effect and is easily dominated over any timescale from hours to hundreds of millions of years by the many known and unknown factors. There may be positive or negative feedbacks associated with temperature changes, which may modify this 1 deg figure. There are certainly simple feedback effects associated with CO2 levels, eg the greening of the Earth (

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth)

which will affect both the Earth's albedo and weather patterns. On the other hand the melting of the Arctic ice cap will reduce the Earth's albedo, so that's a positive feedback. One other overwhelmingly strong effect on an hourly to century timescale (at least) is the interaction between the oceans and the atmosphere. The thermal capacity of the oceans is about 1000 times that of the atmosphere. That is, cooling the ocean by 0.01 deg C (that's the limit of resolution of a thermometer typically, accuracy is perhaps 0.1 deg C) would provide enough heat to heat the atmosphere by 10 deg C. The interaction between oceans and atmosphere is hugely complex and data is lacking.

As to where the CO2 comes from - if you add up all the CO2 emitted by burning fossil fuels since 1880, it is about twice as much as the change in CO2 in the atmosphere. According to the DOE we've emitted 389 E12 kg of C. In that time the ppm of CO2 has increased from 280 to 400 and the mass of the atmosphere is 5.1480E18. The mean molecular mass of the atmosphere is 29 and CO2 is 44 obviously. So the mass of CO2 in the atmosphere has gone from 280E-6*44/29*5.1E18=2.2E15 kg to 400E-6*44/29*5.1E18=3.1E15 kg

And from the above we've created 389E12*44/12=1.4 E15 kg, of which 0.9E15 is still in the atmosphere (glad that came out right).





Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[TugboatEng]

Ironic, you feel flux, not temperature. Why do you think the weather report has has to list a temperature with a "feels like" to correct for humidity and wind chill?

Disassembling thermodynamics? I'm applying its most basic terminology. Should we not follow the science?

I live in California, I am close to the wildfires. There is one burning a few miles from me right now.

California gets normally 8000 wildfires in a year.

A reputable national laboratory says climate change will bring 15% more rain to my region. Will this make wildfires worse? Peer review? What does that even mean anymore.

 

[dik]

Sorry Greg... from (one of many sources).

https://earth.org/data_visualization/a-brief-history-of-co2/

I think we're 'done like a turkey'. To make matters more interesting... it's just getting started. Hold on to your hat; it could get real interesting.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

I don't understand the graph. Were there ice cores to estimate CO2 when it was greater than 2000 ppm?

 

[GregLocock]

We may or may not be done like turkeys, but one thing I can guarantee is that any internal actions by the first world are practically irrelevant so far as CO2 ppm goes.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[GregLocock]

Also, what does that graph tell us? For a start the y axis should be ESTIMATED ppm. RCP 8.5 can be safely discounted, it bears no resemblance to reality. The economic study it was based on has the population of Nigeria at 1.4 billion in 2100, up from 216 million, almost double that of India today, squished into a country the size of Texas.

Secondly, due to the logarithmic impact of CO2 on temperature, RCP6 seems to max out at 800 ppm, maybe 1 degree or so warmer than today. Most of the warming is the Arctic and Antarctic.

As I said before, scary sciency presentations are designed to fool you.


Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[hokie66]

For all those who bemoan the effects of CO2 on the atmosphere, I suggest they stop exhaling.

 

[dik]

Ironic, you feel flux, not temperature.

I guess then we're totally fluxed. Hope it's not too late.

Why do you think the weather report has has to list a temperature with a "feels like"

Because we've all gone softer than snowflakes. Now we get 'extreme cold' warnings at -15°C, when once that was reserved for -30°C.


"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[TugboatEng]

Speaking of exhaling and the atmosphere, ff we can crack ironic metallurgist's mind I think we can solve climate change. His ability to temper a conversation could probably temper our atmosphere.

 

[dik]

The worst bushfires seen in Oz were in the 1850s. Don't be a drama queen. The worst drought was 1900, don't be a drama queen. The worst floods, 1852. Stop being a drama queen.

I know that three queens beats one joker.
Try to retain just a tiny bit of decorum will you?

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[dik]

Speaking of exhaling and the atmosphere, ff we can crack ironic metallurgist's mind I think we can solve climate change. His ability to temper a conversation could probably temper our atmosphere.

Still keeping it classy I see.
Don't shoot the messenger.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[TugboatEng]

Tell us how Marxism will combat climate change?! I agree that it will but I want to make sure we're on the same page.