Boeing 737 Max8 Aircraft Crashes and Investigations [Part 5] 19

[Sparweb]

This is the continuation from:

thread815-445840
thread815-450258
thread815-452000
thread815-454283

This topic is broken into multiple threads due to the length to be scrolled, and images to load, creating long load times for some users and devices. If you are NEW to this discussion, please read the above threads prior to posting, to avoid rehashing old discussions.

Thank you everyone for your interest! I have learned a lot from the discussion, too.

Some key references:
Ethiopian CAA preliminary report

Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee preliminary report

A Boeing 737 Technical Site

Washington Post: When Will Boeing 737 Max Fly Again and More Questions

No one believes the theory except the one who developed it. Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.
STF

 

[Sparweb]

Thank you AH for the report link.

They are not too kind. While they don't write it in one sentence, because their mandate was not to find cause, the JATR put the two statements in sequential sentences, so that it is pretty obvious.
Recommendation 3... "non compliance"... FAR 25.201, 25.1329, 25.1581... Ouch... I suspected, and this corroborates.

Recommendation 5... "In some cases, [the FAA's] BASOO engineers had limited experience and knowledge of key technical aspects of the B737 MAX program."

Recommendation 10... Parts of the FAA were kept in the dark. The different branches don't have perfect communication with each other, so if Boeing didn't tell the FSB about the MCAS, the BASOO couldn't be counted on to do it either.
During the certification process, a decision was made to remove information relating to MCAS
functionality from the draft Flight Crew Operating Manual (FCOM). This decision meant that
the FAA Flight Standardization Board (FSB) was not fully aware of the MCAS function and was
not in a position to adequately assess training needs.

This is just some stuff that stands out in the first 20 pages. The whole report is quite the truckload of complex information. It will take a lot of time to process it all. It is also written for a certification/regulatory audience. Not easy for the public to read.

http://www.sparweb.ca

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

There are two very distinct sides to the report.

There is the original certification process and then there is the problems with the actual machine which are used to reinforce the findings.

There is definitely a link between the reports releases and the changes in Management at Boeing. Although to be honest I don't think the changes will do Boeing any good helping getting the problem solved. They are still using lawyer talk on all media releases and pushing that all they need to do is update the FMC software and the aircraft can fly again.

If you go by the recommendations then the whole of the fight control system, flight instrument failure modes and cockpit alerting system will have to be revamped. Which will then trigger the training aspects of the report.


But the report I would say is a good reset to the whole wide industry and regulation. At least it will give the regualtors the ability to demand resources to be able to do thier function properly only time will tell if they actually get those reasources.


I agree that although the document is public its pretty heavy going for even for those within the industry.


Well there are managemnt changes within Boeing I susepect another announcement is going to be coming about the software fix is going to cure everything. I predict there is no chance of it flying again this year and in 2020 it is 50/50.


I wonder when they will bite the bullet and shut production down.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

those that are interested in the pickle forks here is the FAA inspection guidance on them.

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=FAA-2019-0711-0002

 

[Sparweb]

I noticed without much surprise that after the AD was issued, many 737Max operators were able to fly them to a storage site on ferry flight permits. What is unusual now is that there are some still being relocated in this manner as the delay of the grounding gets longer and longer. I expect many operators in northerly climates (Norway, Iceland, etc.) will prefer to park their fleet in warmer, drier countries during the winter of the northern hemisphere.

http://www.sparweb.ca

 

[Lou Scannon]

Surely this is already the most momentous grounding in the history of commercial aviation. Yes the Comet I grounding which read across to the Mark II was permanent, but the quantity of aircraft, finances, and passenger flights affected was tiny by comparison... even when scaled according to the relative size of the commercial aviation markets in 1954 vs 2019. Am I wrong?

"Schiefgehen wird, was schiefgehen kann" - das Murphygesetz

 

[Tomfh]

Are they still suggesting the planes can fly without retraining?

 

[Sparweb]

Only Boeing ever "officially" said that. If they still are saying that, it's unlikely that they'll be listened to at this point. The recent report from the joint task force really nails the coffin on many of the assumptions Boeing used to grandfather the 737 Max. Transport Canada has already (very early on) made a statement that they do not believe the Max can return to flight without special training for pilots.

I can't be certain that the 737Max won't still be re-certified under the same type certification rules, but the scrutiny is obviously so highly elevated, that I really don't see how training could possibly be avoided now. [speculation alert] Perhaps they could circumvent the training requirement with a complete re-vamp of the auto-flight control system, plus the attendant sensors, manual trim and Mach speed trim system, but that would take more than a year, so either way they've got a big hill to climb.

http://www.sparweb.ca

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Aye but there are some pretty restrictive requirements to ferry them. There has just been a few flown from Iceland down to Spain and they went the whole way at FL250, 250knts and flap 1 which would have kept the MCAS turned off.

The other issue with training is that it seems the data pack for the sims was complete and utter garbage in certain areas of the envelope at simulating the relevant situation. And the assumption that a NG sim will do for any training is also out the window. That is one of the reasons for external test pilots to do flights before recertification. Oncce done they will then certify the sim as valid.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

And a link explaining the changes to load distribution when you fit winglets.

https://tamarackaero.com/insights/2016/07/01/a-geek-data-crash-course-on-winglets

 

[waross]

So Boeing is able to meet their delivery deadlines even though the aircraft are unusable.


Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

 

[davefitz]

Focusing only on economic penalties, will Boeing still be requried to reimburse foriegn airlines for continuing lost flight time if the FAA approves flights but the foreign regulators do not approve?

The change of the CEO occurred concurrent with the release of the report.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[Sparweb]

That's for the lawyers to decide. You can be sure they're already working on it.

http://www.sparweb.ca

 

[RVAmeche]

I would assume yes, since the foreign regulators have lost confidence in the FAA and thus likely won't stand by their approval.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Until they deliver the aircraft the penalties will apply.

There is a bit of history on the having different versions for each regulation area. In the old days it was a major pain moving hardware. So areas required certain mods done and others required them to be removed.

I really can't see anyone be happy recieving a pre world wide approved aircraft because it will lock it into the FAA region unless it's updated later.

Production slots are sold years in advance and you know your serial number before a single bit of metal is cut.

You now have the situation that the most loyal customers who bought in early are going to get the lemons of the production run.

I don't know how happy USA punters will be flying on it either if they know the rest of the world are saying it's not completely compliant yet.

I really think the "the pilots should have just flown the plane" keyboard warrior's will have the same effect changing thier opinion as they did trying to nail everything on the pilots and get the aircraft flying again with no changes.

 

[Tomfh]

Amazing how little damage this has done to Boeing’s share price. They’re up on a year ago, up 200% on three years ago, and up 1000% on ten years ago.

I didn’t realise their civilian planes were such a small part of their income.

 

[IRstuff]

Airplanes account for about 60% of Boeing's revenue, so it's still pretty important, but only one quarter of that is from the 737 Max. Their expected revenue for 2019 is expected to be down about 5 to 10 billion out of a total $93 billion for 2018.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

[RVAmeche]

This is also still in the investigation/review phase. If the FAA or foreign regulators comes back and definitely says major modifications are needed, I'd expect the market to react then.

 

[waross]

I wouldn't want to be an executive in charge of aircraft purchases with a fleet of Max 8s on order.
Do you accept delivery of the aircraft and hope that they will be cleared to fly before the costs of not flying get too onerous?
or
Do you cancel your order and go to the end of the que and wait additional years for new aircraft from either Boeing or Airbus?
Just when you thought that managing an airline was a science you find yourself in a high stakes game of chance.

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

 

[IRstuff]

The expectation would be that they have to be returned to Boeing to get the required fixes, so why take delivery?

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

They won't take delivery of any airframes until they are certified to be flown.

Normally there is a deposit paid on confirmation of the order which is when your serial number and production slot is issued.

Some make alot of money selling early production slots.

Depends on the purchase contract if you can cancel and get your money back.