FEMA's Outdated Flood Zone Maps 21

[Oops409]

Only 3% of residents in Asheville, NC, for example, had flood insurance, according to an article I read. Looking at FEMA's Flood Maps, it is understandable why residents would not have flood insurance.

FEMA flood maps will need to be updated to reflect modern risks, and risks due to more and more urbanization and growth since maps were developed, along with whatever weather cycles we are now experiencing.

Marion, NC below

https://hazards-fema.maps.arcgis.co...655413029,-82.5308610411255,35.60463469500095

 

[cranky108]

Life insurance seems to be a money maker, so why is flood insurance not?
I noticed that life and disability insurance are being bundled together.
Maybe if Flood and home owners were offered as a bundle people might buy it.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

its not only flood.

Its subsidence the full range basically an excuse to not pay out.

To be fair the explosion of utterly awful quality housing next to rivers in the UK they will grasp at any excuse to not pay out.

The removal of trees and anything else that has been used to prevent flooding for the last 1000 years sometimes 100's of miles away apparently has nothing to do with it.

 

[TugboatEng]

Cranky, there are tests that can be performed to evaluate a person's health. There is currently no ability to predict weather in the long term. Therefore, it's much less risky for an insurance company to insure a person's life than it is to insure against floods.

 

[3DDave]

Life insurance is typically fixed payout; the house knows the odds are that everyone dies and can easily estimate for a large population what that death rate is.

For flood insurance it may be "replacement," in addition to the costs of cleanup, which is far more sensitive to the economy. Weather prediction or not, they don't have sufficient actuarial information to make that determination.

Worse, as what Florida did, is that the government may step in and require insurance to cover things. In the case of Florida it's roofs. If a roof is "damaged" by a storm then Florida requires that insurance cover replacement. The bad news is that so called "gypsy" roofers will make an estimate that any roof is storm damaged and, since insurance pays for it, charge whatever they feel they can get away with.

As a result insurance companies are requiring policy holders to have roofs that have no damage at all, from normal daily thermal cycling, which is seen in the homeowner getting dropped if their roof is over 3 (or so) years old. That means homeowners are on the hook for $15-$50k every three years to keep homeowner's coverage.

Since few homeowners will do that, many major companies have left homeowner coverage.

Similarly, where the odds approach 100%, they refuse to issue policies, as has happened to Kia owners over the easy-to-steal ignition systems or, as has since developed, the amount of damage done to them when the ignition system is upgraded.

I suppose a further twist is that, due to the limited supply, home prices have been increasing at a pace far greater than the insurance companies can guarantee to cover with their investments.

There have also been structural problems showing in the secondary/reinsurance markets. These are companies that arrange to cover a portion of an insurance companies liabilities, but they also depend on knowing some rate of claims. They can be obliterated if all the insurance companies they work with are put under simultaneous pressure that is too high. See the what happened to the secondary market for mortgages in 2007. If the stock market were to collapse it would likely take out major insurers at the same time.

 

[TugboatEng]

California is much worse than Florida for insurance. They're actually cancelling policies in CA sighting the high cost of rebuilding. Our permitting, materials, and labor costs are too high.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

The rebuild cost is going through the roof in the UK.

I had a proper look at my house insurance and went and used an online rebuild calculator.

I was under half value insured. The broker was also a bit surprised. That's up 20% in the last 6 months. I did a policy up the road from you.

 

[1503-44]

That's why I'm saying that house values will not fall much, even with adverse housing market conditions. Everything related to construction is double to triple the cost of 3yrs ago. Its never possible to buy a house for less than you can build one and they are equal cost in most markets now. If less, other forces are at work. I can't buy a POS at the hardware store for less than 20€. Even a bag of dirt is 12. Double.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[cranky108]

And what of fixed value insurance? At least that way the insurance company knows the maximum payout.
Like life insurance, the payout is a fixed value.
The home owner has some risk with this, but not a total risk.

 

[dik]

You can be healthy, and 'pop off' the next day... Like medical tests climate data can be used to show a potential for a problem. The systems are so complex that even with the newest supercomputers, it's only a best guess.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[1503-44]

I think that's very true. They show so much detail that it creates a lot of false positives. (Like 5 of 5). Then they get to do more stuff to verify. Then you have to get an mri yearly. If you are not careful, you become part of their gravy train.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[TugboatEng]

Dik, people win jackpots in casinos but the casino still comes out ahead overall. Life insurance is no different. It's an odds game. Life insurance companies have an advantage in that they can charge more as their odds get worse.

 

[1503-44]

Casinos have the advantage. They know they won't lose all of their bets.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[TugboatEng]

Life insurance policies typically expire before they become too risky.

 

[davidbeach]

Term does. Whole Life and other similar types of policies, which have much lower payouts per dollar spent on premiums, continue on to the end of life.

When one this sentence into the German to translate wanted, would one the fact exploit, that the word order and the punctuation already with the German conventions agree.

-- Douglas Hofstadter, Jan 1982

 

[TugboatEng]

Those policies typically cover accidental death only which doesn't necessarily increase in risk with age.

 

[1503-44]

Small business disaster loan funds run out.
No possibility of funding until after election.

Why should an election affect disaster fund availability? Disasters are in progress now.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...to-hurricane-victims-are-halted-as-cash-runs/

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[FacEngrPE]

More details matter, the Nolichucky funnel.

https://tdeconline.tn.gov/nolichucky/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nolichucky_River[/URL]]Basin size 1,744 sq mi (4,520 km2)
Discharge
• location Embreeville, Tennessee(mean for water years 1920–2005)
• average 1,378 cu ft/s (39.0 m3/s)(mean for water years 1920–2005)
• minimum 88 cu ft/s (2.5 m3/s)September 1925
• maximum 120,000 cu ft/s (3,400 m3/s)May 1901

New flow estimate for the Nolichucky river during Halene reached an overwhelming 84,000 cubic feet per second (usgs river gauge was off scale, so this number is not calibrated and subject to change.)

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitori...ameterCode=00065&period=P30D&showMedian=false

The only easy path through these mountains (up to 6000 ft) is along the rivers. Any other path requires crawling up steep slopes or extensive very long tunnels. The nature of these gorges is that occasionally high water scrubs them clean, this is how these gorges came to be built.
Why did Helene flood the Nolichucky River so badly (and the Cane River and Toe River)?; TheGeoModels

 

[sgw1009]

A number that I saw some 45 years ago that has stuck with me, and I think of somewhat often, is this:

1 inch of rain per hour produces a cubic foot of water per acre per second​

It does not take very many acres or very many seconds before you are talking about a lot of water. With the Nolichucky river basin entailing some 1700 square miles, a sure recipe for disaster.

 

[FacEngrPE]

Conditions on the ground
This is a collection of videos on the aftermath of Halene on the Toe river at Green Mountain NC.

DAY 7: ATV ride in the Helene warzone that was our neighborhood. Green Mountain, NC At this point some roads have been cleared of mud, it is piles high on the roadway sholders,
DAY 8: Downtown Green Mountain, NC after #helene
Day 8: Downtown Green Mountain, NC after #helene
Helene's Ground Zero ~ The Toe River at Peak ~ Relief NC
ATV Ride Over Relief Bridge, from Yancey to Mitchell County (Oct 17, 2024)
There are many more videos showing similar destruction, and early efforts to clear roadways and make temporary replacements for bridges and washed out embankments (often replaced by fords).

UPDATE by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Swannanoa, North Carolina (Oct 22 2024)

Added, bridge building (Yes I know this is an advertisement, forgive me).
Interesting that a company can get some work started, and is together enough to use it as add copy this fast.
Asheville, NC Bridge Installation (Hurricane Helene); Dixie Aerial Photography (Oct 18 2024)
Its not all high tech, some of this is just hard work to make the infrastructure work again.
Hurricane Helene Rebuild Pt 1: Gaining Access To The Farm Again; Rich Hill Farms (Oct 12 2024)
It looks worse for a while.
RAILROAD GONE!! Spruce Pine North Carolina. Hurricane Helene.; JLR© INVESTIGATES (Oct 18 2024)

 

[dik]

A similar problem exists in Canada:

"Opposition is growing over Quebec's new flood maps, with the province's professional association of real estate brokers warning they could disrupt the housing market and directly impact homeowners.

Rene Leblanc, who has invested in his home on des Macons Street in Pierrefonds for 40 years, said the new maps put his future in jeopardy.

“I always thought that one day the value of that home would supply me with the necessary funds to go into that last chapter of my life. And now I find that may not happen,” Leblanc said in a recent interview."

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/opposition-mounts-against-quebec-s-new-flood-maps-1.7080391

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik