Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII 27

[dik]

For earlier threads, see:
thread1618-496010
thread1618-496614
thread1618-497017
thread1618-497239
thread1618-497988
thread1618-498967
thread1618-501135
thread1618-504850
thread1618-506948
thread1618-507973
thread1618-510266
thread1618-512015


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Which part?
[ul]
[li]We'll have to wait and see 'how things shake out'.[/li]
[li]We don't know the extent of the change.[/li]
[li]In addition, adaptation takes time.[/li]
[li]Things may be changing far faster than they ever have in past.[/li]
[/ul]

All are not items that cannot really be fact checked... the first two are uncertain, the third is self evident (few things in nature are instantaneous), and with the exception, of meteorites/and Krakatoa the fourth one is likely true.


-----*****-----

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

We have to wait and see "how things shake out". I have no problem with that statement.

We don't know the extent of the change.

Fair enough. But, I'm' rationally looking at the projections that have been made by the scientist that are being promoted by the doomsday alarmists. We don't know that these will be the final numbers. But, it is a reasonable place to start when responding to the alarmist rhetoric. I'm just using the projected changes over the next 40 to 100 years. And, comparing that to things that we've adapted to in the past.

In addition, adaptation takes time.

Certainly. It takes some time. Though certainly our advanced technology allows us (as a society, not as a species) to adapt faster than ever before. We can walk on the moon. We can voyage to the bottom of the ocean floor. I think we can figure out to handle a slightly higher temperature. LOL

Things may be changing far faster than they ever have in past.

This is the part that's comically false. At least in terms of ocean's rising and reefs "bleaching". We have the data from the ocean's rising 130 meters over about a thousand years or something right? That was 10 times faster than the worst projections from the scientists that is causing the alarmists to poop their pants and worry about the end of our planet. LOL.

CO2 rising. Yes, this is faster. But, temperature changes. Please. We've have global temperature fluctuations way worse than the 1.5 degrees C that everyone is worried about.

How much did Krakatoa affect the climate worldwide? That was something like a VERY rapid temperature change of something like 0.8 degrees C worldwide in 1883. What about Mt. St. Helens? That caused a temperature change of 8 degrees Celsius though that was localized to the northwest. Heck, when the great asteroid hit the planet and wiped out the dinosaurs that's what allowed mammals to thrive because we're better suited for temperature fluctuations than reptiles.

This isn't to say that global warming isn't "bad". But, it does put it into perspective. The world is not going to end. There will be problems, but they will be manageable. It is almost a certainty that the cost associated with preventing climate change will be orders of magnitude higher than the cost of adapting and mediating it. Heck, the loss of life that would be caused by an all out effort to stop climate change would be orders of magnitude larger than the loss of life associated with letting it happen and just adaption to it and trying to lessen our CO2 emissions in a economically efficient way.

 

[TugboatEng]

The fourth one is certainly not true. The FACT is that sea level rise has occurred at a rate of 4/10ths of an inch per year over the last 12,500 years. Has sea level even risen 4/10 ths of an inch since the industrial revolution where carbon based fuels suddenly became dominant? Is there some other system of units we need to use to make this more clear for you?

 

[SwinnyGG]

The irony is that if you take an honest look at the historical data, CO2 may actually prevent climate change. It is an insulator and insulators tend to stabilize conditions, not accelerate them.

Sigh. You were doing so well.

 

[dik]

That's why I used the word 'may'... I suspect it's the case, but cannot confirm it. Insulation makes good things happen, unless it's a matter of trapping heat that would normally be radiated to space.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[enginesrus]

Geo engineering in force today. Many alto clouds and all are man made. Just look up and study some time.

 

[TugboatEng]

Dik, it's already happened. How can you say "may"?

 

[dik]

I don't have any definite information that it is intensifying faster and is more frequent. I suspect it is, but don't know for sure.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

But you DO have information that it has historically occurred at least 10x faster prior to the industrial revolution.

 

[dik]

We're talking compressing time that took millennium into decades...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Please clarify your last statement. It seems contrary to the facts.

The fact is that sea level has historically occurred at a rate 10x faster over the last 12.5 millenia. It is only post industrial revolution that it has slowed nearly to a stop.

 

[dik]

New battery information:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cbm9Cz6OdQ

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[BridgeSmith]

It's a supply & demand thing - battery producers overestimated the governments' ability to force people into buying EVs, so now they have more batteries than they can sell.It's not rocket surgery.

 

[TugboatEng]

Everything I see shows quite the opposite of what you have shared, dik.

The price has been fairly flat. An inflation correction for the last 3 years could certainly cause the appearance of a drop.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU3359133591

 

[dik]

Still heating up...

"According to the report, the global average surface temperature reached 1.45C above pre-industrial levels last year, just below the 1.5C threshold that scientists believe will result in accelerating climate chaos.

The temperature was lifted slightly - and temporarily - by the natural El Nino weather event over the Pacific Ocean, but it still shattered the previous record of 1.29C, set in 2016.

Celeste Saulo, WMO secretary-general, said: "The WMO community is sounding the red alert to the world.

"Climate change is about much more than temperatures.

"What we witnessed in 2023, especially with the unprecedented ocean warmth, glacier retreat and Antarctic sea ice loss, is cause for particular concern.""

https://news.sky.com/story/climate-...res-caused-misery-and-mayhem-in-2023-13098034

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Dik, please explain the 10x rate of sea level rise before the industrial revolution.

 

[BridgeSmith]

...below the 1.5C threshold that scientists believe will result in accelerating climate chaos.

Gotta love that purposefully vague apocalyptic language!

 

[dik]

If things were definite, they could get real scary. They don't know what the full effect is. Change is likely, but extent is not definitive. Like so many things, we have to wait and find out, and hope we can deal with it.

As far as sea level, I suspect with thick ice on land, the sea levels may have been affected. Just a thought, though. Imagine walking from Asia to North America...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Dik, please explain the 10x rate of sea level rise before the industrial revolution.

It's simple, right? The ice age was ending and various glaciers and such melted. All that melting ice resulted in a greater volume of sea water. The cause of it was never really in doubt. The key takeaway is that the large and rapid rise in sea levels resulted in whole cities being submerged many meters below sea level. But, this wasn't catastrophic. People picked up and moved away. They ADAPTED to the changing environment. Not only that, but they prospered. They were able to farm more and better crops over wider areas.... blah, blah, blah. The exact opposite of what alarmists claim will happen if we experience a fraction of those sea level changes today.

 

[GregLocock]

" scientists believe" Some might, but the 1.5 target was not based on science, it is a political objective. Since we'll undoubtedly go through it in the next 20 years we'll just have to wait for the next target to be set and ignored.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?