Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII 27

[dik]

For earlier threads, see:
thread1618-496010
thread1618-496614
thread1618-497017
thread1618-497239
thread1618-497988
thread1618-498967
thread1618-501135
thread1618-504850
thread1618-506948
thread1618-507973
thread1618-510266
thread1618-512015


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Political, scientific, whatever... we're on our way to passing it.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

If it is political then all the scare mongering is just that. There certainly are tipping points in the Earth's climate, but that 1.5 one was pulled out of somebody's orifice and is used to drive political action. Here's a slightly more useful set of numbers.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950

Happily the first (lowest temperature/fastest change) predicted is low latitude reef die-off. So that's the one I'll be looking at. If that doesn't happen within 10 years of 1.5 then we can be confident it is just attribution science. And here's why think it is tosh.

https://www.hawaii.edu/news/2022/03/11/hawaiian-corals-resilience-climate/

Evolution is >> small slow swings in temperature. Incidentally the current fuss about high ocean temperatures refers to temperatures measured in the first mm of water, they are not the bulk temperature as estimated from the Argo buoys.



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[dik]

It was a potential rise indicated during the Paris accords that we should set as an upper limit. Due to the inaction of governments this number will likely be exceeded, and has already been exceeded in some conditions. We just have to wait and see what their inaction results in, and hope for the best.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

It's funny when leftists let slip their support for authoritarianism. It's the governments' fault for not cracking down on the prosperity of the people.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

The goal of these people is POWER over the populace, not to solve global warming. They don't care at all about global warming. It's only helpful to them so much as they can use it to seize more and more power.

 

[btrueblood]

"It was a potential rise indicated during the Paris accords that we should set as an upper limit. Due to the inaction of governments this number will likely be exceeded, and has already been exceeded in some conditions. We just have to wait and see what their inaction results in, and hope for the best."

Right. But, if the prediction was wrong, or over-hyped, then hoping for the best is useless, because the great unwashed populace will now ignore any further predictions of doom since the whole of climate science has been disproven. Thus, the caution you keep hearing from the rest of us, in that you repost hype vs. facts.

 

[dik]

Hydrogen powered train:

"The train, developed by CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicles, successfully operated at a speed of 160 kilometers per hour while fully loaded, achieving comprehensive system, scenario and multi-level performance verification, marking a breakthrough in the application of hydrogen energy in the field of rail transportation.

Unlike traditional trains that rely on fossil fuels or obtain electrical power from overhead lines, the hydrogen-powered train is equipped with a hydrogen energy propulsion system, which provides a strong and lasting power source.

Test data indicates that the train's average energy consumption per kilometer is 5 kilowatt-hours, meeting all the design requirements and reaching an internationally leading level, the company said.

Its driving range can exceed 1,000 km.

Following the completion of tests for durability, high and low temperatures, vibration, electromagnetic compatibility and fire safety tests for the hydrogen power system, the company tested the vehicle at different speeds, verifying for the first time the performance of the hydrogen-powered train in temperatures ranging from minus 25 C to 35 C."

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202403/22/WS65fd4f40a31082fc043be346.html

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[BridgeSmith]

My apologies for the previous post, now deleted. I was obviously too tired last night to be posting.

The posted portion of the China Daily story, does have some glaring incorrect information, though. Using current technology, at least, Hydrogen is not a power source; it is energy storage medium, in the same class as batteries. Although more energy dense, and arguably less damaging to the environment in their production, Hydrogen fuel cells still use electricity produced by other sources to get 'recharged'. So, a Hydrogen-powered vehicle, of whatever type, just like battery electric vehicles, is a pollution displacement vehicle, not a zero pollution vehicle. In China especially, where a large majority of the electricity is produced by coal, in power plants not nearly as clean as plants in the US and elsewhere, saying it doesn't "rely on fossil fuels" is a farce.

I'd interested to see how its efficiency and total pollution (from electricity production to end use) compares with modern diesel-electric locomotives. I suspect it would not compare favorably, putting it in the category of a publicity stunt, like much of what the CCP does when it comes to 'clean' energy.

 

[GregLocock]

Three big numbers to consider are the CO2 produced per kWh by the powerplant, the efficiency of the electrolysis system, and the efficiency of the traction unit/fuel cells.

This will then give you CO2 per kWh at the contact on the rail. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in China was 531.15 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour (gCO₂/kWh) in 2022. Electrolysis is (being nice) 70% efficient, and fuel cells about 60% So the likely CO2 per kWh at the rail is 532/.7/.6
, 1300 g CO2/kWh

Diesel give about 3.2 kg CO2/kg of diesel, from which we'd hope for an sfc of 210 g/Kwh, with say 15% drivetrain losses (strictly the hydrogen one will have some as well) 800 g/ kWh

With diesel there is also the well to bowser efficiency of 83%, so 950 g CO2/kWh

Not quite as ridiculous as I'd thought, rather contingent on the magical electrolysis process, which thus far hasn't proved to be much more use than flushing expensive metal electrodes down the toilet, electrode erosion being a big issue.

Of course the claim will be that the hydrogen will be made from solar electricity. OK, so somebody else will be using electricity made by burning coal instead.




Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[BridgeSmith]

Thanks Greg! I expected it to come out something like that, but didn't know where to find the numbers.

So essentially, this is a publicity stunt, aimed at fooling the gullible econuts into thinking China is doing their part to save the planet.

 

[TugboatEng]

The leftist infatuation with transportation by rail is an odd one. I've always heard the term "foamer" used to describe people that like trains.

 

[GregLocock]

I'm not crazy fond of B triples rumbling along the freeway between Melbourne and Sydney directly alongside the railway track but that's our joined-up thinking for you. Ford had a body stamping and engine plant about 80 km from the assembly plant, both had adjoining railways. Our mighty railroad operators couldn't guarantee next day delivery. More B triples, this time in suburbia.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[dik]

As rail becomes more important, that may change.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Trains have been around for a very long time now. With the exception of coal and tar sands hauling, railroad has not become more important over time.

 

[GregLocock]

I think the lesson from Australia is you can have a high speed passenger/mail service, or you can have a low speed bulk haulage service. You can't combine them on the same tracks, however clever your scheduling.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[dik]

Loss of forrests:

"Sadly, most of the other forests around the world are under threat. In just the last 100 years, the world has lost as many trees as the previous 9,000 years combined. To put in perspective just how much forest has been lost in the last century, it is more than the entire South American continent. Most of this deforestation has been caused by the drive to make room for agricultural fields, the vast majority of which are dedicated to animal grazing or growing crops that become animal feed.

This massive decline in global forests has numerous negative consequences. Forests are, for example, home to 80% of the terrestrial biodiversity on Earth, providing habitats for literally millions of unique species of plants, animals, fungi, and microorganisms. In fact, forest biodiversity is so high that famed British entomologist E.O. Wilson wrote in his book The Diversity of Life about an insect collecting trip he took to the Amazon rainforest in which he concluded that there are some beetle species whose entire population exists on and in single, individual trees."

https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-monitoring-worlds-forests-copernicus-land

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Dik, does that chart include the loss of forest to 410 feet of sea level rise over that same timeframe?

 

[BridgeSmith]

Oh the horror! Grasslands have been replaced by...grazing land, AKA grasslands.

 

[dik]

and as grazing lands comes an additional methane load...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[hokie66]

Grazing land = improved grass land. And improved food supply. And the forest lands replaced by other agricultural land has also improved food supply. Thus, our standard of living has been improved by better use of available land. In addition, the remaining forest land is being better managed for timber production. Wins all around.