Things are Starting to Warm Up Part II 24

[dik]

For earlier thread, see

thread1618-496010

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[IRstuff]

what happens when it gets hotter and for longer periods of time... just ignore it, too?

Of course, this is all natural and no human was involved in its creation, so revel in it ;-)

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[TugboatEng]

IR, dik, you write us off as denialists. But, we think your policies are going to make it worse. We don't like being flooded with daily observations of temperature because they're being used to drum up fear. Fear makes us do irrational things like scrap our energy grid in favor of one that will make things worse both economically and environmentally. That's why we roll out eyes at your sources and question their motivations.

 

[Tomfh]

The key word is climate change... some places will get warmer, some will get colder.

So which is it? Are some places getting warmer and some getting colder (i.e. the bell curve is widening), or is the bell curve shifting in the warming direction, as per RVAMeche's chart:

 

[IRstuff]

It's doing both, the mean is moving up, and the extremes are getting more extreme.

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[Tomfh]

It's doing both, the mean is moving up, and the extremes are getting more extreme

RVAMeche's graph does not show an increase in places getting colder. The graph shows a reduction at the cold end. Is the graph wrong?

 

[TugboatEng]

Does insulating your house increase the extremes of temperature from one room to the next? There is zero evidence that greenhouse gasses will make climate more extreme. The opposite should happen. With even temperatures we will not see the barometric variations that drive our storms. Extreme weather is just a cop-out when the models don't work.

 

[GregLocock]

It appears that Greenland is becoming green again

Precisely. We've been here before. It was called the Holocene Optimum.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[TugboatEng]

Posting while making dinner. Maybe it was a bit too hot in the kitchen. Correction made.

Optimum? If we reach that we can only have decline afterwards. We should do our best to avoid this optimum.

 

[IRstuff]

The graph shows a reduction at the cold end. Is the graph wrong?

His graph is of average temperatures over the globe, so no extreme temperatures are shown. Nevertheless, the distribution is broadening, so there are positions whose temperature differences are increasing, which implies a possibly greater heat flow between any given two points, which could imply more extreme highs or lows.

However, EPA reports fewer cold temperature extremes, relatively

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicat...eratures,conditions are becoming more common.

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[rb1957]

@tbe ... I don't think your analogy (comparing the earth's climate system to the inside of your house) is valid.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[Tomfh]

Extreme weather is just a cop-out when the models don't work.

Yes we see this a lot in Australia. We were told for a long time the models are predicting hotter drier conditions. The local climate scientists told us we were entering permanent drought and desertification was underway on Australia's east coast. Then we get a run of cold wet conditions and they claim it's what the climate science has predicted all along.

 

[dik]

It can be either... but the net result is that things will get warmer globally.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[Tomfh]

His graph is of average temperatures over the globe, so no extreme temperatures are shown

dik said some places will get colder (a common claim). That statement is inconsistent with the graph. The graph does not show any increase in places getting colder.

 

[dik]

That took a little time... this time it will likely occur in our lifetime. Climate change will occur in decades, rather than millinnia.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

rb1957, perhaps I should have compared it to a greenhouse? Do greenhouses have extreme varying temperatures within their enclosure?

I'll admit that there is an extreme variation but not in the way climate scientists would care to acknowledge.

 

[dik]

Take a gander at AMOC... it is possible that Europe may become colder. We don't know where the pendulum will swing...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[Tomfh]

....possible...may....We don't know..

You were very certain a few posts ago.

 

[IRstuff]

some places will get colder (a common claim). That statement is inconsistent with the graph. The graph does not show any increase in places getting colder.

Given the presumption that significantly hotter temperatures are occurring as indicated by historic heatwaves in places like England, but only an average temperature anomaly of 2 degrees, then there must either be a lot of places with somewhat colder temperatures, or places with commensurately colder temperatures, ala "Polar Vortex" conditions.

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[Tomfh]

 

[rb1957]

@tbe .. no, greenhouses work completely differently to the atmosphere. They work, AFAIUI, but controlling the moisture inside the greenhouse.

greenhouses are not a good analogy for the atmosphere.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?