Things are Starting to Warm Up Part II 24

[dik]

For earlier thread, see

thread1618-496010

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

tom... there is a wide gap of what I suspect strongly, and know for certain. They are largely a series of anecdotes that strongly indicate there are serious problems on the horizon. The first inkling I had about climate change was on a tape recording of a series of cybernetics lectures given by Dr. Ken McLachlan of the University of Southhampton. The recordings were made about 60 years ago, and his reference was that 'we may already be on that slippery slope'. I've noticed a big change in the last decade, and I don't think it's because of better information available.

I'm convinced that we have caused global changes, but I don't know what the end result will be. I've very concerned that they may be catastrophic, not for my sake (I'm nearly out of here), but for my children, grandkids and great-grandkids as well as humanity. I envision huge changes in lifestyle caused by transportation issues, food production, geo-political matters, etc. Little real effort seems to be made to prevent, or even slow it down. Even more concerning, because it can be a huge change, the 'little' changes have become political. Even the courts are acting to prevent implimentation of needed actions. It does not look good.

As one of the posters noted, I think IRS, that to err on the safe side is still good, but to ignore may be 'not so good'. I'm thinking it could be as bad as the next mass extinction. I have no idea of how this stops, it it ever gets going. One of my few serious moments...





So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[Guest102023]

Data point

We really should cease labeling (and thereby dismissing) significant data as ‘anecdotes’. Data (mountains of it) are the raw material for the model. The model in turn predicts future direction, and the scientists have been consistently conservative with that - events have outpaced their warnings. The mechanisms and tipping points should be understandable to anyone with technical training (I hesitate to describe university as ‘higher education’ when it is essentially job training, but I digress).

Anyone disputing that may have trust and comprehension issues, very possibly assisted by the cyclone of excrement that is politics, media, and corporate interests, multiplied and accelerated by The Algorithm.

Some here will protest that we are smarter than that, are objective, and have complete independence of thought, blah blah blah, but I’m sorry, we all have a lot less agency than we are told and want to be told. Does anyone ever notice the root message advertisers relentlessly beat into our heads? (Hint: gambling companies are the worst offenders.)

Expecting flack incoming in 3, 2, 1 … because I know this flies in the face of centuries of American self-mythologizing and the engineer’s ‘I can fix this’ mindset.

 

[dik]

It kinda is, if you consider the upper atmosphere as being the glazing for a greenhouse and the earth as being the space within.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

It's not a zero sum... there will/are places that are experiencing colder weather, but the net result is +ve temperatures. One of the problems is the arctic is heating fastest of any place on earth and will release methane from the frozen permafrost. Methane is far worse than CO[sub]2[/sub]. I've seen clips of where they have released methane from bubbles frozen in ice and ignited them.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[rb1957]

@dik ... ok, but I disagree, but meh !

what in the real world models the opening of the glass panes to let moist air out and dry air in ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[dik]

I hope I'm wrong!

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[rb1957]

@dik (15:21 post)

We agree that the future is very uncertain. The precautionary approach is all well and good, until you impoverish yourself for potential fears.
How much life insurance to you have ? How much health care ? These are things that will almost certainly be needed during your life (or to help your loved ones immediately afterwards). You've made a decision to spend so much on these certain expenses and use the rest of living today (and maybe tomorrow).

I agree that humans are affecting the environment in many ways. Who's to say that CO2 is the critical interference ? Who's to say that if we "fix" this CO2 problem that something else won't bite us ?

I agree that we should be sensitive to the impact we're having on the environment.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[dik]

By impoverishing myself, you are referring to doing things properly 'to leave no trace'. Indiginous thought is 'that you don't own the earth, but you borrow it from your grandkids'. We've even 'cluttered' space. My potential concerns are a lot worse than your's are. I hope you are correct, but have a sinking feeling that you are gravely in error. I can envision things getting far worse. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out, and I hope you can tell me, 'I told you so!'.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

There's lots of 'good' data... the 'good' anecdotes simply reflect the results of it and indicate the data is likely correct.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[Guest102023]

I know this much, Big Oil favours the precautionary approach.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

 

[dik]

Yes, it's in their financial interests, and no one else's. Being one of the main perpetrators, you might think they would have that approach. The coal producers are of the same opinion...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[IRstuff]

Who's to say that if we "fix" this CO2 problem that something else won't bite us ?

There's two aspects
> Pareto analysis -- there are a number of other heat trapping mechanisms that will likely have to be dealt with
> Unintended consequences -- as with fossil fuels; great efficiency, but tons of CO2, and many of the "green energy" solutions require their own energy/environmental costs as well as creation of waste that's environmentally unfriendly.



TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

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[dik]

IRS, we have to be careful as not to create other more damaging 'dragons'... I don't have an answer for it, I think I'm aware of some of the problems, but not all of them.

Snakeoil salesmen, and entrepreneurs will be coming out of the woodwork, too.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[rb1957]

"I know this much, Big Oil favours the precautionary approach." ??

really ?? the precautionary approach to this (AFAIUI) is "stop burning FFs today" ... scarcely in "big oil"'s interest.

Though, of course, if they are smart then they'd see themselves in the energy business and so motivated to develop the next energy source.

Don't want to be the best buggy whip manufacturer as cars are entering the market.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[rb1957]

@IRS focussed on fuels and energy. what about land use ? new microbes (possibly released from the melting permafrost) ? sea use/abuse ? etc

there are literally a million ways "nature" can get rid of us.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[rb1957]

at the risk of getting red flagged, indigenous examples are all well and good, but our population far exceeds the number that can be supported by indigenous ways and means.

you could say that this is the problem, but who are you going to cull ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[dik]

agree... but it's the attitude. I got an eMail two days back, that illustrates the wisdom in 'the background' and part of the eMail was:

The Two Wolves

An old Cherokee grandfather is teaching his grandson about life.

“A fight is going on inside me,” he said to the boy.

“It is a terrible fight and it is between two wolves. One is evil – he is anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego.”

He continued, “The other is good – he is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith. The same fight is going on inside you – and inside every other person, too.”

The grandson thought about it for a minute and then asked his grandfather, “Which wolf will win?”

The old Cherokee simply replied, “The one you feed.”

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[IRstuff]

IRS focussed on fuels and energy. what about land use ? new microbes (possibly released from the melting permafrost) ? sea use/abuse ? etc

there are literally a million ways "nature" can get rid of us.

Wasn't "focused" per se, just picking low lying subject. But, sure, there are tons of ways; even a non global fire/dust creating asteroid could kill upwards of 80% of humanity just from big enough tsunamis. The microplastics generated from our waste that are now endemic in the environment might prove to be life-limiting to humans, or some nasty bug might develop that feeds exclusively on them and then infect us with something nasty.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

[dik]

and the good news is that we may have unleashed them by our actions. We have to take ownership of that!

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

I suspect there will be big changes in transportation in the future, both with automobiles, and aircraft.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik