Things are Starting to Warm Up. 21

[dik]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...mothers-bear-brunt-climate-change-2022-06-14/

a sign of things to come... hold on to your hats, folks.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[dik]

Depending on the group, Tug, I think that works both ways.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

EnzoAus - I'm glad somebody else is thinking about this from a data-led approach, as opposed to hand wavy repetitions of talking points from the mass media. I wasted a morning wrestling with the AEMO website to try and pull those numbers you've got, all my estimates for renewable output variation are based on UK data. I stuck to day by day outputs as I was mostly interested in how many days batteries a 1 GW baseload renewable system would need (2.5 days as it turns out, and a massive overbuild of the generators). One big finding is that at least for the UK, offshore wind is economically untenable, onshore wind is the cheapest per MWh delivered (and the ugliest), and solar is good at filling some of the gaps. Of course in Australia we haven't actually had to pay for any offshore wind so far so real world data is lacking. The cheapest system was onshore wind, solar, and gas to fill in the gaps (the more gas the cheaper). I'd be tempted to stick an hour's worth of batteries in there just because, but that is one huge battery.



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[rb1957]

solar ... in the UK ? on which day of the year ?? (ie ... it's usually very overcast)

1hr of battery ? ... enough to avoid the system crashing, but once the battery is on, then loads better start shutting down.

is fracking an option in Oz ? it's done wonders in the US, and some unknown future cost.

what does a 20GW nuke (or 2 or 3 10 GW) look like ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[dik]

I like nuclear power if done safely and a means of getting rid of any waste is safely undertaken. This could be the future, but there also has to be a huge reduction in the use and manner in which fossil fuels are used.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[Tomfh]

EnzoAus - I'm glad somebody else is thinking about this from a data-led approach, as opposed to hand wavy repetitions of talking points from the mass media

Is anyone with any clout doing that? Only 6 months ago our NSW energy minister was secretly arranging for our largest coal generator to be shut early. Then only last week, when NSW's supply vulnerability started kicking in (despite Eraring not even being closed down yet), did Kean panic and cobble together his coal deal to extend the life of coal plants. This is the energy minister! He really did seem ignorant of the extent to which NSW depends on coal. He thought you could just shut down the plants, problem solved. It seems the politicians and even AEMO are proceeding in total defiance of the reality of where energy comes from. It's just inane talking points about the need to "transition to renewables as soon as possible". That's the answer to everything. Emissions. Supply shortages. Fuel bills. Just keep pushing renewables into the grid and problem solved.

 

[EnzoAus]

I wasted a morning wrestling with the AEMO website to try and pull those numbers you've got.

For those interested in the Australian National Electricity Market data, the following link may be useful. I had to employ my son's software skills to extract the data into the 12 month CSV that I was seeking. I may be able to share that in a future post after I've had a chance to do some analysis. Link

Is anyone with any clout doing that?

A guess a few people are. Just saw an Australian Financial Review article on Linkedin this morning suggesting a total build price of $AUD320B. Link

By contrast the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) has revised its estimate down from AUD$1T in 2017 to AUD$500B in the following article. Link

All big numbers that will only be worthwhile if the energy mix provides stable power during all seasons and for all weather extremes.

 

[GregLocock]

@rb1957

"solar ... in the UK ? on which day of the year ?? (ie ... it's usually very overcast)"


To my surprise the solar farms in the UK whack out an average of 3 GWh per day for each GW of plate capacity. That's about 2/3 of what I get, but my panels are not optimised for energy output, they point east and west to get a broader shoulder, and should be angled more, they point at blue sky not the sun. I live in the rain shadow of the wettest place in Victoria, so it isn't exactly classic Australian outback, more like a sunnier, somewhat drier, version of Devon. Green field solar farms are probably oriented to give maximum energy output over the whole year.

Fracking is not politically an option (there is a lot of gas) in 2 states.

I think we need to build one or 2 nukes per state, otherwise the interconnectors will fry.

@TomH, read Enzo's articles. Here's a freeby of the Fin

https://t.co/kxotPCWjWE

So estimates between 150-250 (mine, nukes, no cables included, only 15 GW, Enzo say 24GW needed really) to 500 for wind/solar/storage (oddly enough I agree with that figure too, 3 times as much as nukes). I'd call that close enough to at least start sketching out this 28 year project.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[GregLocock]

The CSIRO article is just flapdoodle, but has good links

https://www.transgrid.com.au/media/x4mbdody/transgrid_energy_vision.pdf

and

https://www.csiro.au/en/news/News-r...es-holding-steady-as-cheapest-new-build-power

which I haven't had time to read.

I am greatly looking forward to the day in parliament when these costs are mentioned.



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[hokie66]

Greg,

There is some fracking in Queensland, where it is warranted, and more to come. The other states have succumbed to the weather jihad.

https://environment.des.qld.gov.au/management/activities/non-mining/fraccing

 

[enginesrus]

Yes and all the planets are lined up as well. All known for what 100 plus years this sort of wild weather was going to happen in the age of Aquarius or our present time.
Even books written about it years ago. Its a stunt.

 

[rb1957]

if you've got "plenty of gas" why not change to gas powered PP ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[dik]

"where it is warranted"... Hopefully they have done their homework... too often they don't.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[rb1957]

"where it's warranted" may mean "not near the reef"

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[IanCA]

@dik Thanks for sharing this important information.

“Whatever else this Court may know about, it does not have a clue about how to address climate change,” Kagan wrote. “And let’s say the obvious: The stakes here are high. Yet the Court today prevents congressionally authorized agency action to curb power plants’ carbon dioxide emissions. The Court appoints itself—instead of Congress or the expert agency—the decisionmaker on climate policy. I cannot think of many things more frightening.”

 

[dik]

I think it's a serious problem that no one is addressing. I think it was Mark Twain that noted, "Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it." I think his other one I like, "I haven't had so much fun, since the orphanage burned down", maybe more appropriate.

The SCOTUS is just making it worse... with the US having the worlds largest carbon output, by a factor of two, for countries with over 100 million population. Things do not look promising.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

The historical chart also shows that there are no steps on the rise. Once the rate of rise starts to slow, it stops. It appears we are nearly at a peak already.

Except that what is different this time around is that earth’s peak predator is aggressively moving the goalposts. (A practice I think you are well familiar with.)

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[dik]

"Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it."

Big Oil begs to differ!

Here is another Samuel Clemens quote I think is apropos:

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes”​

One of our fundamental weaknesses is how much we forget, individually and as a society.
Many of us know little more than a few basic facts about our grandparents' lives.
In 2007 we forget that financial collapses have happened over and over again.
After WWII we kept on believing that only Germans had fascist tendencies, conveniently forgetting that before WWII there were National Socialist political parties active in most if not all Western nations.
There are many more examples.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[IanCA]

I think it's a serious problem that no one is addressing.

I really appreciate your quotes, they are relevant and help to paint the picture.

Fortunately, there are many people who have realized the extent of the problem and they are putting an incredible amount of effort into raising awareness and making real and valuable changes. Their power is limited but growing and they need all the support they can get. It is extremely hard, believe me, I have tried, to encourage people to even consider the possibility of climate change, even in the face of real hard evidence, once they have been convinced by their favorite exclusive source of news that the concept is fake.

 

[IanCA]

@ironic metallurgist Thank you, I appreciate your input.

After WWII we kept on believing that only Germans had fascist tendencies, conveniently forgetting that before WWII there were National Socialist political parties active in most if not all Western nations.

I would like to add these references for context. I would be interested to hear if you agree.

National Socialist

fascism-vs-communism-vs-socialism

 

[Tomfh]

So estimates between 150-250 (mine, nukes, no cables included, only 15 GW, Enzo say 24GW needed really) to 500 for wind/solar/storage (oddly enough I agree with that figure too, 3 times as much as nukes).

320B or 500B seems a bit optimistic for full transition to solar/wind/storage. Snowy 2.0 quickly blew out from $2 billion to $10 billion+, and 4 years to 12+ years. Swapping the whole grid to stored renewables will encounter similar hurdles.

From the Fin article, AEMO projections:

AEMO says renewable energy as a share of the total energy generated on the grid will rise to 83 per cent by 2030-31, to 96 per cent by 2040, and to 98 per cent by 2050.

This seems so far fetched. 83% renewables within 8 years? 96% within 18 years?