Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XI 10

[dik]

For earlier threads, see:
thread1618-496010
thread1618-496614
thread1618-497017
thread1618-497239
thread1618-497988
thread1618-498967
thread1618-501135
thread1618-504850
thread1618-506948
thread1618-507973


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

At least one sentence is a lie. Cherry picked weather stats make climate change as obvious or irrelevant as you like.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

The second sentence is also false

https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/australia?country=~AUS

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[dik]

In tons per capita... we beat you, but we have a larger country size... greater travel distance... and a climate that would bring tears to your eyes... You are ahead of the US, per capita...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

So? The BBC said no significant reduction. I posted data showing a significant reduction. Your data does not talk about reductions at all. Random shotgun blasts of irrelevant data is not an argument. Discerning dik strikes again.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[dik]

Still on the positive side, greg... hardly a reduction. It appears for all the coal that China is using, the US is still out performing it... That was in 2022... maybe there is more recent data available.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1275337/yoy-change-in-co2-emissions-worldwide/

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

20% reduction in 3 years. I know that's a bullshit number but it directly contradicts the BBC's claim. Yu can access renewable penetration month by month in the electricity generation game here

https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-syste...ricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem

30% to 68% in 5.5 years

We are paying the price for that, electricity prices have increased by 50% so far, reliability is forecast to drop, and that's before we increase our population by 4% over the next 3 years.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[dik]

It's still on the positive side of the line... maybe next year will be different... I couldn't find data that shows a country's annual reduction... Maybe the rate of increase is slowing...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

What comes after a Category 5? With climate change, this may be on the horizon. I hope this does not reach land...

"Hurricane Lee is expected to continue strengthening Friday after quickly morphing into a powerful Category 5 storm that is now packing destructive maximum sustained winds of 165 mph as it spins hundreds of miles east of the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 a.m. ET advisory.

The hurricane was located about 630 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, the hurricane center said Friday in the 5 a.m. update.

“Additional strengthening is forecast today. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane through early next week,” forecasters wrote in the update.

Lee, which was a Category 1 storm Thursday, has been intensifying with exceptional speed in warm ocean waters, doubling its wind speeds in just a day."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/weather/hurricane-lee-path-friday-climate/index.html

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

"It's still on the positive side of the line... maybe next year will be different... I couldn't find data that shows a country's annual reduction... Maybe the rate of increase is slowing..."

How to say you don't understand a graph without saying you don't understand a graph.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[dik]

I understand the graph... it's pretty easy... simple mimes can do that sort of thing.

Japan's output of carbon is -ve, ie. they are decreasing. Australia's is on the positive side, so they are increasing their carbon, albeit, not as much as the US or China. Australia is running on par with Russia... This data is a year old, and maybe things have changed...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Somebody thinking this could get serious...

"Tackling climate change needs a rapid transformation of the way our world works, travels, eats and uses energy, according to an important UN review.

This is the first "global stocktake" to examine the efforts of countries to reduce planet-warming emissions since the Paris agreement was signed in 2015.

While progress has been made, efforts now need to be massively scaled up.

The report calls for "radical decarbonisation" with a fast phase out of fossil fuels without carbon capture.

Burning fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal to generate electricity emits carbon dioxide, which is the main driver of climate change. Carbon capture in industrial processes and power stations stops most of the CO2 produced from being released, and either reuses it or stores it underground.

Renewable energy also needs significant expansion while deforestation needs to be halted and reversed by 2030.

The stocktake report will be considered by political leaders and will be central to global climate talks in Dubai later this year.

Over the course of the past two years, the UN has set out to review the promises made by countries who signed the Paris agreement in 2015. At the meeting eight years ago, countries agreed to keep the amount of warming since the industrial revolution well below 2C and make efforts to keep it under 1.5C.

The report examines their efforts to cut carbon, to adapt to climate change and how they have mobilised finance and technology to help poorer nations deal with the problem."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66753909

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

China India Indonesia. Nothing else matters.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[hokie66]

You asked what comes after Category 5. Category 4, of course.

 

[dik]

Not before... Hokie

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Hurricanes don't dissipate immediately. Technically, a category 4 does come after a cat 5 as the hurricane is downgraded.

 

[dik]

I was thinking of them stepping up a bit, in future... I guess the Cat 5 is for 157mph and higher (it's open ended), so it covers everything... until they 'define' a Cat 6... Tug and Hokie are correct... if it slows down it becomes a Cat 4.

"There is no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane. When Hurricane Dorian hit the Bahamas in September 2019, it had maximum wind speeds of 185 mph. That’s a wind speed of about where hurricane scientist Jeff Masters says a Category 6 should start, but the Saffir-Simpson scale only goes up to 5.

Some people have been talking about creating a Category 6 hurricane designation, with the climate crisis making catastrophic storms more common and each level on the scale meant to approximate the increasing wind damage, but a Category 5 already means near total destruction. So while there is a measurement difference between 157 mph winds and 200 mph winds, there may not be much practical difference in terms of destructive force between a Category 5 hurricane and what might be labeled as a Category 6 hurricane."

The problem with hurricane categories
There is a key problem with how hurricane categories are measured: The Saffir-Simpson scale only takes into account a storm’s maximum sustained windspeed, and disregards other threats, like expected rainfall or storm surge. Even a Category 1 hurricane or a tropical storm can bring serious damage and risk to life and limb, but people in their path may underestimate the danger they pose because of how they’re categorized. An alternative to the Saffir-Simpson Scale is AccuWeather’s “RealImpact Scale,” which takes other metrics besides wind speed into account.

They could have added 'Duration'... but likely reflected in four items considered...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

Climate change is starting to get a little pricey... It may be time to pay the piper...

"
It’s been a record-smashing year for the most expensive weather and climate disasters in the United States this year after severe storms, the deadly Maui wildfire and Hurricane Idalia tipped the scales last month.

With four months still left in the year, the US has been hit with 23 disasters that each cost at least $1 billion, according to new data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, surpassing the previous annual record of 22 events in 2020."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/11/us/billion-dollar-weather-climate-disasters-noaa/index.html

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

We're defining the Maui Wildfire as "climate related"? Why is that? Because there were winds that knocked down a power line? I suppose categorizing EVERYTING as climate related really makes the numbers go up. Huh? LOL

I'm not trying to be harsh, just pointing out an obvious reality of comparing costs now to in the past. You need to have a valid criteria that is the same going backwards and forwards for any comparison to be valid.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the cost of "climate related" disasters has gone up. We've got more population, we've got more infrastructure. We've got inflation and the cost of repairing that infrastructure is higher than it's ever been.... even if the damage were exactly the same as it was last year or the year before.

So, 23 disasters that are worth more than a billions. Let's say they all cost us $10 billion dollars.... So, 230 billion for the year. How much does the federal government shell out of to repair that damage. A lot of that is covered by private individuals, insurance companies, the states. So, let's just say that only $100 billion would be covered by the Federal government. Just wild ass guesses on my part. But, I'm trying to make that number as high as is reasonable to expect.

Now, let's compare that to how much have we SPENT on green energy programs this year. Wasn't the Inflation Reduction act alone worth something like a trillion dollars?! I understand that this was passed last year. But, let's just say that the $780 billion of that was geared towards the climate. We've have to have disasters like this (or worse) every year for 8 years in a row before the government spending that kind of money to PREVENT these disasters would be worthwhile.

But, the real deciding factor is to ask ourselves how much of that money spent by the government can we say actually did anything to prevent such disasters in the future? I'd personally say it's something close to zero dollars.

The reality is that it would be much more efficient (from an economics point of view) to spend money on rebuilding, relocation, and adapting to a changing climate than it would be to try to change the global climate by whatever the Inflation Reduction Act is actually doing.

 

[dik]

Sorry Josh... it's not just the Maui fire... the article notes, " the US has been hit with 23 disasters that each cost at least $1 billion." The year is not over, and who knows what next year will bring. There is a price to pay for not doing anything, it would seem.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Sorry Josh... it's not just the Maui fire... the article notes, " the US has been hit with 23 disasters that each cost at least $1 billion." The year is not over, and who knows what next year will bring. There is a price to pay for not doing anything, it would seem.

Absolutely, there is a price to pay for doing nothing. I think that's kind of my point, though you missed it! What is the most EFFICIENT way to spend our money. Is it to throw it away on policies that are not at all effective in reducing the cost of climate change. Or, should it be spent in ways that will actually help people.

The Maui fire (like the Paradise, CA fire before it) could have been prevented if we had merely funded for the upgrading of power lines in these areas. Better yet, we could have moved them underground.... Either way would have prevented the downed lines lighting the fires in the first place. That would be a lot cheaper than trying to change the GLOBAL atmospheric conditions with changes to our LOCAL energy consumption.

We can blame the electric utility that owned those lines, of course. That's reasonable. Though once the fire is lit, there is little we could do to prevent the damage when the winds are blowing that hard. That would be a much more efficient way to spend our money than searching for unicorn farts or some other magical solution to save us from climate change.

Regardless, we can probably find way cheaper ways to fix or prevent any of those disasters in the future than by flushing money down the toilet with the Inflation Reduction creation Act.